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- Assessing the current and future suitability to the Asian Tiger mosquito, a dengue and Zika vector, in major cities in EuropePublication . Oliveira, Sandra; Rocha, Jorge; Capinha, César; Sousa, CarlaThe Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus) is a competent vector of numerous diseases, including the dengue and Zika viruses, and public health concerns have encouraged extensive research to model the environmental suitability to the mosquito. We evaluated the level of consensus between published predictions for the European continent and for a set of 65 major cities. We identified consensus hotspots of high and low suitability and the potential variations of suitability levels between present-day and future climatic conditions. A strong inter-model agreement was found regarding the future expansion of the mosquito to northern and eastern Europe. About 83% of cities are predicted as suitable to the establishment of the mosquito in the future, including in northern Europe, and no decrease in suitability is expected. These results show the importance of planning for vector surveillance and control, even in areas where the risk of establishment of Ae. albopictus is currently low.
- Predicting the time of arrival of the Tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus) to new countries based on trade patterns of tyres and plantsPublication . Oliveira, Sandra; Capinha, César; Rocha, JorgeThe mosquito Aedes albopictus is a highly invasive species, which continues to widen its range worldwide. International trade is a major driver of its dispersal, in particular the imports of tyres and live plants. As a competent vector of numer-ous diseases, among which Zika and dengue, the spread of this species raises public health concerns.2. Based on indicators of trade volumes and trends along 15 years, combined with climatic similarity and geographic distance between countries, we tested a model aimed at estimating the time of arrival of the species in new countries. We used partial least squares regression to model the year of first recording of the species in previously invaded countries. The fitted model was subsequently applied to predict the expected time of arrival in countries where the species is still absent.3. The model was able to estimate the year of first recording of the species with up to 2 years difference for 90% of the countries. Temperature differences among countries and the number of exporting countries where the species is present were the most important predictors. Estimates indicate that Aedes albopictusmight enter all countries assessed by 2035, earlier in Africa and South America than in Eastern and Northern Europe. However, passive transportation by ground vehicles may accelerate the dispersal of the species, whereas environmental suit-ability may have seasonal limits, factors that were not integrated in the model.4. Policy implications: Surveillance and control strategies require timely adjustments to curb the spread of this species, and public health policies must adapt to tackle the potential exposure to vector- borne diseases. Our study highlights that, in the absence of transnational strategies to contain the dispersal of the species, a large number of new countries will be colonized in the coming years, in different re-gions of the world, where the implementation of timely preventive measures is paramount.
- Assessing present and future suitability of major European cities to the Asian Tiger mosquito, a vector of dengue and ZikaPublication . Oliveira, Sandra; Rocha, Jorge; Sousa, Carla A.; Capinha, CésarThe Asian Tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus) is already established in many countries of Europe and cities are particularly vulnerable to the spread of vector-borne diseases. We evaluated the suitability of 62 large urban areas in Europe to the establishment of this mosquito, based on the level of agreement between published predictions of its potential distribution. We classified levels of suitability and uncertainty according to the number of matching models at a 25 km cell size and retrieved the predominant class within the boundaries of each urban area. We analysed 7 independent predictions for current conditions and 5 for future conditions (2050-2080), as well as changes in classes between the two timeframes. Currently, 60% of the cities are suitable to the mosquito, 8% are unsuitable and 32% show high uncertainty. In the future, 87% will be suitable and none will be unsuitable, including cities in the British Isles and Scandinavia, which will have to adapt their public health policies.
- Urban population in Europe is increasingly exposed to vector-borne diseases transmitted by the Asian-Tiger mosquitoPublication . Oliveira, Sandra; Rocha, Jorge; Sousa, Carla; Capinha, CésarThe Asian Tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus) entered in Europe through Albania around 40 years ago and, since then, has spread to nearly 30 European countries. In a context of global and climatic changes, it is expected that the environmental suitability for the mosquito will further expand in the future, therefore increasing the probability of disease outbreaks. Urban areas are particularly vulnerable to the spread of vector-borne diseases, because they offer a high number of potential hosts and have a strong interconnection amongst different areas and neighbourhoods, fostered by available urban mobility options. We analysed how much of the urban population in Europe might be exposed to vector-borne diseases transmitted by the Asian-tiger mosquito, focusing on 65 metropolitan areas and other large cities retrieved from the Urban Audit 2018 (EUROSTAT, 2018). In a first step, we evaluated the environmental suitability of each urban area to the establishment of the species, classifying the level of agreement between published predictions of its distribution. We assumed a high level of certainty on suitability (or unsuitability) if at least 70% of the models agreed, and a high uncertainty otherwise. We aggregated the consensus levels in three categories (suitable, uncertain, unsuitable) and retrieved the corresponding level for each urban area assuming the predominant category within its boundaries. The analysis was performed for two timeframes, regarding present-day and future climatic conditions. Urban population estimates for current (2020) and future (2050) conditions were obtained from the Global Population Grid at 1-km2 resolution based on SSP3 (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway), a scenario of societal development that considers an intermediate level of growth regarding demographics, economics, technology and governance, among other features (). Results show that, currently, 51% of the studied urban areas are already suitable to the establishment of the species, mainly located in southern and central Europe and where 60 million people live. Indeed, outbreaks of dengue and chikungunya viruses transmitted by this species have already occurred in Europe since 2010, for example in France, Italy and Croatia. Conversely, 12% of the urban areas are currently unsuitable to the species, and these are mainly located in Scandinavia, the Baltic countries and Poland. In the future, half of these cities will become suitable with high certainty to the presence of the Asian-tiger mosquito, with over 4 million people exposed. By 2050, none of the urban areas will be unsuitable and over 80% will have suitable environmental conditions for the species, including cities like Zurich, Prague, London or Copenhagen. This means that the number of people potentially exposed is estimated to increase to about 110 million. These findings point to the need of adapting public health policies and implementing strategies to prevent the spread of vector-borne diseases in European urban areas.
- Wide and increasing suitability for Aedes albopictus in Europe is congruent across distribution modelsPublication . Oliveira, Sandra; Rocha, Jorge; Sousa, Carla A.; Capinha, CésarThe Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus), a vector of dengue, Zika and other diseases, was introduced in Europe in the 1970s, where it is still widening its range. Spurred by public health concerns, several studies have delivered predictions of the current and future distribution of the species for this region, often with differing results. We provide the first joint analysis of these predictions, to identify consensus hotspots of high and low suitability, as well as areas with high uncertainty. The analysis focused on current and future climate conditions and was carried out for the whole of Europe and for 65 major urban areas. High consensus on current suitability was found for the northwest of the Iberian Peninsula, southern France, Italy and the coastline between the western Balkans and Greece. Most models also agree on a substantial future expansion of suitable areas into northern and eastern Europe. About 83% of urban areas are expected to become suitable in the future, in contrast with ~ 49% nowadays. Our findings show that previous research is congruent in identifying wide suitable areas for Aedes albopictus across Europe and in the need to effectively account for climate change in managing and preventing its future spread.
- Urban population in Europe is increasingly exposed to vector-borne diseases transmitted by the Asian-Tiger mosquitoPublication . Oliveira, Sandra; Rocha, Jorge; Sousa, Carla A.; Capinha, CésarThe Asian Tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus) is already established in many countries of Europe and cities are particularly vulnerable to the spread of vector-borne diseases. We evaluated the suitability of 62 large urban areas in Europe to the establishment of this mosquito, based on the level of agreement between published predictions of its potential distribution. We classified levels of suitability and uncertainty according to the number of matching models at a 25 km cell size and retrieved the predominant class within the boundaries of each urban area. We analysed 7 independent predictions for current conditions and 5 for future conditions (2050-2080), as well as changes in classes between the two timeframes. Currently, 60% of the cities are suitable to the mosquito, 8% are unsuitable and 32% show high uncertainty. In the future, 87% will be suitable and none will be unsuitable, including cities in the British Isles and Scandinavia, which will have to adapt their public health policies.
- The susceptibility of urban areas in Europe to vector-borne diseases spread by the Asian Tiger mosquitoPublication . Oliveira, Sandra; Rocha, Jorge; Capinha, CésarThe Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus) is now present in nearly all continentspresent in all populated continents and it is widening its range in temperate regions. As a competent vector to numerous diseases, including dengue, Zika and Chikungunya viruses, public health concerns have encouraged intense research and modelling efforts to assess the suitability to the mosquito in different regions. We evaluated the level of consensus between several model results covering Europe, to identify hotspots of high and low suitability, as well as the areas with higher uncertainty. We analysed the possible variations of suitability levels between present-day and future climatic conditions and identified 9 potential trajectories. Results show strong inter-model consensus regarding the future expansion of the mosquito to northern and eastern Europe, with suitable areas with low uncertainty covering 70% of the study area, whereas no decrease in suitability is expected. We analysed the potential trajectories for 65 large urban areas and found that 83% are predicted suitable to the introduction of the mosquito in the future. Cities located in northern Europe show the most drastic changes, varying from currently unsuitable to certainly suitable. None of the cities analysed is predicted as unsuitable in future climatic scenarios. These results can help defining research pathways for further modelling efforts and show the importance of planning for vector surveillance and control, even in places where Ae. albopictus and the risk of vector-borne diseases is currently absent but is expected to increase in future.
- Assessing present and future suitability of major European cities to the Asian Tiger mosquito, a vector of dengue and ZikaPublication . Oliveira, Sandra; Rocha, Jorge; Sousa, Carla; Capinha, CésarThe Asian Tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus) is already established in many countries of Europe and cities are particularly vulnerable to the spread of vector-borne diseases. We evaluated the suitability of 62 large urban areas in Europe to the establishment of this mosquito, based on the level of agreement between published predictions of its potential distribution. We classified levels of suitability and uncertainty according to the number of matching models at a 25 km cell size and retrieved the predominant class within the boundaries of each urban area. We analysed 7 independent predictions for current conditions and 5 for future conditions (2050-2080), as well as changes in classes between the two timeframes. Currently, 60% of the cities are suitable to the mosquito, 8% are unsuitable and 32% show high uncertainty. In the future, 87% will be suitable and none will be unsuitable, including cities in the British Isles and Scandinavia, which will have to adapt their public health policies.
- Assessing the current and future suitability to the Asian Tiger mosquito, a dengue and Zika vector, in major cities in EuropePublication . Oliveira, Sandra; Rocha, Jorge; Capinha, César; Sousa, Carla A.The Asian Tiger mosquito is already established in many countries in Europe and cities are particularly vulnerable to the spread of vector-borne diseases. We evaluated the suitability of 62 large urban areas in Europe to the establishment of the mosquito, based on the level of agreement between published modelling results that estimated the spatial distribution of the Aedes albopictus. We classified suitability and uncertainty levels according to the number of matching models on a 25 km cell basis and retrieved the predominant class within the boundaries of each urban area. We analysed 7 models for current conditions and 5 for future conditions (2050-2080), as well as changes in classes between these two timeframes. Currently, 60% of the cities are suitable to the mosquito, 8% are unsuitable and 32% show high uncertainty. In the future, 87% will be suitable and none will be unsuitable, including cities in the British Isles and Scandinavia, which will have to adapt their public health policies.