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Advisor(s)
Abstract(s)
The Asian Tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus) entered in Europe through Albania around 40
years ago and, since then, has spread to nearly 30 European countries. In a context of global
and climatic changes, it is expected that the environmental suitability for the mosquito will
further expand in the future, therefore increasing the probability of disease outbreaks. Urban
areas are particularly vulnerable to the spread of vector-borne diseases, because they offer a
high number of potential hosts and have a strong interconnection amongst different areas and
neighbourhoods, fostered by available urban mobility options.
We analysed how much of the urban population in Europe might be exposed to vector-borne
diseases transmitted by the Asian-tiger mosquito, focusing on 65 metropolitan areas and other
large cities retrieved from the Urban Audit 2018 (EUROSTAT, 2018). In a first step, we
evaluated the environmental suitability of each urban area to the establishment of the species,
classifying the level of agreement between published predictions of its distribution. We
assumed a high level of certainty on suitability (or unsuitability) if at least 70% of the models
agreed, and a high uncertainty otherwise. We aggregated the consensus levels in three
categories (suitable, uncertain, unsuitable) and retrieved the corresponding level for each
urban area assuming the predominant category within its boundaries. The analysis was
performed for two timeframes, regarding present-day and future climatic conditions. Urban
population estimates for current (2020) and future (2050) conditions were obtained from the
Global Population Grid at 1-km2 resolution based on SSP3 (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway), a
scenario of societal development that considers an intermediate level of growth regarding
demographics, economics, technology and governance, among other features ().
Results show that, currently, 51% of the studied urban areas are already suitable to the
establishment of the species, mainly located in southern and central Europe and where 60
million people live. Indeed, outbreaks of dengue and chikungunya viruses transmitted by this
species have already occurred in Europe since 2010, for example in France, Italy and Croatia.
Conversely, 12% of the urban areas are currently unsuitable to the species, and these are
mainly located in Scandinavia, the Baltic countries and Poland. In the future, half of these cities
will become suitable with high certainty to the presence of the Asian-tiger mosquito, with over
4 million people exposed. By 2050, none of the urban areas will be unsuitable and over 80%
will have suitable environmental conditions for the species, including cities like Zurich, Prague,
London or Copenhagen. This means that the number of people potentially exposed is
estimated to increase to about 110 million. These findings point to the need of adapting public
health policies and implementing strategies to prevent the spread of vector-borne diseases in
European urban areas.
Description
Keywords
Urban areas Europe Aedes albopictus Vector-borne diseases Population
Pedagogical Context
Citation
Oliveira, S., Rocha, J., Sousa, C., Capinha, César (2022). Urban population in Europe is increasingly exposed to vector-borne diseases transmitted by the Asian-Tiger mosquito, 18th International Conference on Urban Health (ICUH), Growing Our Global Community. Driving Action. Ensuring Equity, Valencia, Spain, 24-27 October.