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Advisor(s)
Abstract(s)
The Asian Tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus) is already established in many countries of Europe and cities
are particularly vulnerable to the spread of vector-borne diseases. We evaluated the suitability of 62 large
urban areas in Europe to the establishment of this mosquito, based on the level of agreement between
published predictions of its potential distribution. We classified levels of suitability and uncertainty
according to the number of matching models at a 25 km cell size and retrieved the predominant class
within the boundaries of each urban area. We analysed 7 independent predictions for current conditions
and 5 for future conditions (2050-2080), as well as changes in classes between the two timeframes.
Currently, 60% of the cities are suitable to the mosquito, 8% are unsuitable and 32% show high uncertainty.
In the future, 87% will be suitable and none will be unsuitable, including cities in the British Isles and
Scandinavia, which will have to adapt their public health policies.
Description
Keywords
Aedes albopictus biogeographical risk invasive disease-vectors European cities present conditions future climate
Pedagogical Context
Citation
Oliveira, S. Rocha, J., Sousa, C.A. Capinha, C. (2022). Assessing present and future suitability of major European cities to the Asian Tiger mosquito, a vector of dengue and Zika, 2nd International Conference on Urban Risks (ICUR2022), Lisbon, Portugal, June 23-25.