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Advisor(s)
Abstract(s)
The Asian Tiger mosquito is already established in many countries in Europe and cities are
particularly vulnerable to the spread of vector-borne diseases. We evaluated the suitability of
62 large urban areas in Europe to the establishment of the mosquito, based on the level of
agreement between published modelling results that estimated the spatial distribution of the
Aedes albopictus. We classified suitability and uncertainty levels according to the number of
matching models on a 25 km cell basis and retrieved the predominant class within the
boundaries of each urban area. We analysed 7 models for current conditions and 5 for future
conditions (2050-2080), as well as changes in classes between these two timeframes.
Currently, 60% of the cities are suitable to the mosquito, 8% are unsuitable and 32% show
high uncertainty. In the future, 87% will be suitable and none will be unsuitable, including
cities in the British Isles and Scandinavia, which will have to adapt their public health policies.
Description
Keywords
Aedes albopictus suitability urban areas future climate
Pedagogical Context
Citation
Oliveira, S. Rocha, J., Sousa, C.A. Capinha, C. (2021). Assessing the current and future suitability to the Asian Tiger mosquito, a dengue and Zika vector, in major cities in Europe, 17th International Conference on Urban Health, Transforming our Collective Urban Future: Learning from COVID-19, Virtual, USA, July 6-8.