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Advisor(s)
Abstract(s)
The Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus) is a competent vector of numerous
diseases, including the dengue and Zika viruses, and public health concerns have
encouraged extensive research to model the environmental suitability to the mosquito.
We evaluated the level of consensus between published predictions for the European
continent and for a set of 65 major cities. We identified consensus hotspots of high and
low suitability and the potential variations of suitability levels between present-day and
future climatic conditions. A strong inter-model agreement was found regarding the
future expansion of the mosquito to northern and eastern Europe. About 83% of cities
are predicted as suitable to the establishment of the mosquito in the future, including in
northern Europe, and no decrease in suitability is expected. These results show the
importance of planning for vector surveillance and control, even in areas where the risk
of establishment of Ae. albopictus is currently low.
Description
Keywords
Aedes albopictus Europe Consensus hotspots Suitability