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Advisor(s)
Abstract(s)
The Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus) is now present in nearly all continentspresent in all
populated continents and it is widening its range in temperate regions. As a competent vector to
numerous diseases, including dengue, Zika and Chikungunya viruses, public health concerns have
encouraged intense research and modelling efforts to assess the suitability to the mosquito in different
regions. We evaluated the level of consensus between several model results covering Europe, to identify
hotspots of high and low suitability, as well as the areas with higher uncertainty. We analysed the
possible variations of suitability levels between present-day and future climatic conditions and identified
9 potential trajectories. Results show strong inter-model consensus regarding the future expansion of
the mosquito to northern and eastern Europe, with suitable areas with low uncertainty covering 70% of
the study area, whereas no decrease in suitability is expected. We analysed the potential trajectories for
65 large urban areas and found that 83% are predicted suitable to the introduction of the mosquito in
the future. Cities located in northern Europe show the most drastic changes, varying from currently
unsuitable to certainly suitable. None of the cities analysed is predicted as unsuitable in future climatic
scenarios. These results can help defining research pathways for further modelling efforts and show the
importance of planning for vector surveillance and control, even in places where Ae. albopictus and the
risk of vector-borne diseases is currently absent but is expected to increase in future.
Description
Keywords
Suitability Models Climate change Scenarios Europe Aedes albopictus
Pedagogical Context
Citation
Oliveira, S. Rocha, J. Capinha, C. (2022). The susceptibility of urban areas in Europe to vector-borne diseases spread by the Asian Tiger mosquito, AESOP 2022 Congress Space for Species: Redefining Spatial Justice, Tartu, Estonia, July 25-29.