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- Assessing the current and future suitability to the Asian Tiger mosquito, a dengue and Zika vector, in major cities in EuropePublication . Oliveira, Sandra; Rocha, Jorge; Capinha, César; Sousa, CarlaThe Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus) is a competent vector of numerous diseases, including the dengue and Zika viruses, and public health concerns have encouraged extensive research to model the environmental suitability to the mosquito. We evaluated the level of consensus between published predictions for the European continent and for a set of 65 major cities. We identified consensus hotspots of high and low suitability and the potential variations of suitability levels between present-day and future climatic conditions. A strong inter-model agreement was found regarding the future expansion of the mosquito to northern and eastern Europe. About 83% of cities are predicted as suitable to the establishment of the mosquito in the future, including in northern Europe, and no decrease in suitability is expected. These results show the importance of planning for vector surveillance and control, even in areas where the risk of establishment of Ae. albopictus is currently low.
- Dengue importation into Europe: a network connectivity-based approachPublication . Salami, Donald; Capinha, César; Martins, Maria do Rosário Oliveira; Sousa, Carla AlexandraThe spread of dengue through global human mobility is a major public health concern. A key challenge is understanding the transmission pathways and mediating factors that characterized the patterns of dengue importation into non-endemic areas. Utilizing a network connectivity-based approach, we analyze the importation patterns of dengue fever into European countries. Seven connectivity indices were developed to characterize the role of the air passenger traffic, seasonality, incidence rate, geographical proximity, epidemic vulnerability, and wealth of a source country, in facilitating the transport and importation of dengue fever. We used generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs) to examine the relationship between dengue importation and the connectivity indices while accounting for the air transport network structure. We also incorporated network autocorrelation within a GLMM framework to investigate the propensity of a European country to receive an imported case, by virtue of its position within the air transport network. The connectivity indices and dynamical processes of the air transport network were strong predictors of dengue importation in Europe. With more than 70% of the variation in dengue importation patterns explained. We found that transportation potential was higher for source countries with seasonal dengue activity, high passenger traffic, high incidence rates, high epidemic vulnerability, and in geographical proximity to a destination country in Europe. We also found that position of a European country within the air transport network was a strong predictor of the country's propensity to receive an imported case. Our findings provide evidence that the importation patterns of dengue into Europe can be largely explained by appropriately characterizing the heterogeneities of the source, and topology of the air transport network. This contributes to the foundational framework for building integrated predictive models for bio-surveillance of dengue importation.
- Introduction, spread, and impacts of invasive alien mammal species in EuropePublication . Tedeschi, Lisa; Biancolini, Dino; Capinha, César; Rondinini, Carlo; Essl, Franz1. Biological invasions have emerged as one of the main drivers of biodiversity change and decline, and numbers of species classed as alien in parts of their ranges are rapidly rising. The European Union established a dedicated regulation to limit the impacts of invasive alien species (IAS), which is focused on the species on a Union List of IAS of particular concern. However, no previous study has specifically addressed the ecology of invasive alien mammals included on the Union List. 2. We performed a systematic review of published literature on these species. We retrieved 262 publications dealing with 16 species, and we complemented these with the most up-to-date information extracted from global databases on IAS. 3. We show that most of the study species reached Europe as pets and then escaped from captivity or were intentionally released. On average each year in the period 1981–2020, 1.2 species were recorded for the first time as aliens in European countries, and most species are still expanding their alien ranges by colonising neighbouring territories. France is the most invaded nation, followed by Germany, Italy, and the Russian Federation, and the muskrat Ondatra zibethicus, the American mink Neovison vison, and the raccoon dog Nyctereutes procyonoides are the most widespread species, having invaded at least 27 countries each. Invasive mammals of European Union concern are threatening native biodiversity and human well-being: worryingly, 81% of the 16 study species are implicated in the epidemiological cycle of zoonotic pathogens. 4. Containing secondary spread to further countries is of paramount importance to avoid the establishment of new populations of invasive mammals and the related impacts on native communities, ecosystem services, and human health. 5. We present a compendium on the ecology and impacts of invasive mammals of European Union concern. It can be used to assist environmental policies, identify and subsequently fill knowledge gaps, and inform stakeholders.
- Urban population in Europe is increasingly exposed to vector-borne diseases transmitted by the Asian-Tiger mosquitoPublication . Oliveira, Sandra; Rocha, Jorge; Sousa, Carla; Capinha, CésarThe Asian Tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus) entered in Europe through Albania around 40 years ago and, since then, has spread to nearly 30 European countries. In a context of global and climatic changes, it is expected that the environmental suitability for the mosquito will further expand in the future, therefore increasing the probability of disease outbreaks. Urban areas are particularly vulnerable to the spread of vector-borne diseases, because they offer a high number of potential hosts and have a strong interconnection amongst different areas and neighbourhoods, fostered by available urban mobility options. We analysed how much of the urban population in Europe might be exposed to vector-borne diseases transmitted by the Asian-tiger mosquito, focusing on 65 metropolitan areas and other large cities retrieved from the Urban Audit 2018 (EUROSTAT, 2018). In a first step, we evaluated the environmental suitability of each urban area to the establishment of the species, classifying the level of agreement between published predictions of its distribution. We assumed a high level of certainty on suitability (or unsuitability) if at least 70% of the models agreed, and a high uncertainty otherwise. We aggregated the consensus levels in three categories (suitable, uncertain, unsuitable) and retrieved the corresponding level for each urban area assuming the predominant category within its boundaries. The analysis was performed for two timeframes, regarding present-day and future climatic conditions. Urban population estimates for current (2020) and future (2050) conditions were obtained from the Global Population Grid at 1-km2 resolution based on SSP3 (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway), a scenario of societal development that considers an intermediate level of growth regarding demographics, economics, technology and governance, among other features (). Results show that, currently, 51% of the studied urban areas are already suitable to the establishment of the species, mainly located in southern and central Europe and where 60 million people live. Indeed, outbreaks of dengue and chikungunya viruses transmitted by this species have already occurred in Europe since 2010, for example in France, Italy and Croatia. Conversely, 12% of the urban areas are currently unsuitable to the species, and these are mainly located in Scandinavia, the Baltic countries and Poland. In the future, half of these cities will become suitable with high certainty to the presence of the Asian-tiger mosquito, with over 4 million people exposed. By 2050, none of the urban areas will be unsuitable and over 80% will have suitable environmental conditions for the species, including cities like Zurich, Prague, London or Copenhagen. This means that the number of people potentially exposed is estimated to increase to about 110 million. These findings point to the need of adapting public health policies and implementing strategies to prevent the spread of vector-borne diseases in European urban areas.
- To invade or not to invade? Exploring the niche-based processes underlying the failure of a biological invasion using the invasive Chinese mitten crabPublication . Zhang, Zhixin; Mammola, Stefano; McLay, Colin L.; Capinha, César; Yokota, MasashiInvasive alien species represent a serious threat to global biodiversity, causing considerable damage to native ecosystems. To better assess invasion risks, it is essential to better understand the biological processes that determine the success or failure of invasions. The catadromous Chinese mitten crab Eriocheir sinensis, whose native distribution is the Pacific Coast of China and Korea, has successfully invaded and established populations in North America and Europe. In Japan, where E. sinensis is also regarded as potentially invasive and multiple introduction vectors exist, the species is not yet established. These settings can be used to explore niche-based processes underlying the apparent failure of a biological invasion. We first quantified native and invasive realized niches of E. sinensis in freshwater habitats using geometrical n-dimensional hypervolumes. Based on the assumption of niche conservatism, we then projected habitat suitability of this species in Japan using species distribution models (SDMs) calibrated with distinct sets of distribution data: native occurrences, invasive occurrences, and both. Results showed that E. sinensis has undergone either niche shifts or niche contractions during invasions in different areas of the world. Projections from SDMs indicate that although part of Japan is suitable for E. sinensis, this does not include the freshwater habitats around the Ariake Sea, which is considered to be a suitable marine environment for E. sinensis larvae. The mismatch between suitable freshwater and marine environments provides a possible explanation for the failure of establishment of E. sinensis in Japan to date. Our findings have useful general implications for the interpretation of biological invasions.
- Non-English languages enrich scientific knowledge: the example of economic costs of biological invasionsPublication . Angulo, Elena; Diagne, Christophe; Ballesteros-Mejia, Liliana; Adamjy, Tasnime; Ahmed, Danish A.; Akulov, Evgeny; Banerjee, Achyut K.; Capinha, César; Dia, Cheikh A.K.M.; Dobigny, Gauthier; Duboscq-Carra, Virginia G.; Golivets, Marina; Haubrock, Phillip J.; Heringer, Gustavo; Kirichenko, Natalia; Kourantidou, Melina; Liu, Chunlong; Nuñez, Martin A.; Renault, David; Roiz, David; Taheri, Ahmed; Verbrugge, Laura N.H.; Watari, Yuya; Xiong, Wen; Courchamp, FranckWe contend that the exclusive focus on the English language in scientific research might hinder effective communication between scientists and practitioners or policy makers whose mother tongue is non-English. This barrier in scientific knowledge and data transfer likely leads to significant knowledge gaps and may create biases when providing global patterns in many fields of science. To demonstrate this, we compiled data on the global economic costs of invasive alien species reported in 15 non-English languages. We compared it with equivalent data from English documents (i.e., the InvaCost database, the most up-to-date repository of invasion costs globally). The comparison of both databases (~7500 entries in total) revealed that non-English sources: (i) capture a greater amount of data than English sources alone (2500 vs. 2396 cost entries respectively); (ii) add 249 invasive species and 15 countries to those reported by English literature, and (iii) increase the global cost estimate of invasions by 16.6% (i.e., US$ 214 billion added to 1.288 trillion estimated from the English database). Additionally, 2712 cost entries - not directly comparable to the English database - were directly obtained from practitioners, revealing the value of communication between scientists and practitioners. Moreover, we demonstrated how gaps caused by overlooking non-English data resulted in significant biases in the distribution of costs across space, taxonomic groups, types of cost, and impacted sectors. Specifically, costs from Europe, at the local scale, and particularly pertaining to management, were largely under-represented in the English database. Thus, combining scientific data from English and non-English sources proves fundamental and enhances data completeness. Considering non-English sources helps alleviate biases in understanding invasion costs at a global scale. Finally, it also holds strong potential for improving management performance, coordination among experts (scientists and practitioners), and collaborative actions across countries. Note: non-English versions of the abstract and figures are provided in Appendix S5 in 12 languages.
- Impacts of climate change on geographical distributions of invasive ascidiansPublication . Zhang, Zhixin; Capinha, César; Karger, Dirk N.; Turon, Xavier; MacIsaac, Hugh J.; Zhan, AibinOcean warming associated with global climate change renders marine ecosystems susceptible to biological invasions. Here, we used species distribution models to project habitat suitability for eight invasive ascidians under present-day and future climate scenarios. Distance to shore and maximum sea surface temperature were identified as the most important variables affecting species distributions. Results showed that eight ascidians might respond differently to future climate change. Alarmingly, currently colonized areas are much smaller than predicted, suggesting ascidians may expand their invasive ranges. Areas such as Americas, Europe and Western Pacific have high risks of receiving new invasions. In contrast, African coasts, excluding the Mediterranean side, are not prone to new invasions, likely due to the high sea surface temperature there. Our results highlight the importance of climate change impacts on future invasions and the need for accurate modelling of invasion risks, which can be used as guides to develop management strategies.
- Wide and increasing suitability for Aedes albopictus in Europe is congruent across distribution modelsPublication . Oliveira, Sandra; Rocha, Jorge; Sousa, Carla A.; Capinha, CésarThe Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus), a vector of dengue, Zika and other diseases, was introduced in Europe in the 1970s, where it is still widening its range. Spurred by public health concerns, several studies have delivered predictions of the current and future distribution of the species for this region, often with differing results. We provide the first joint analysis of these predictions, to identify consensus hotspots of high and low suitability, as well as areas with high uncertainty. The analysis focused on current and future climate conditions and was carried out for the whole of Europe and for 65 major urban areas. High consensus on current suitability was found for the northwest of the Iberian Peninsula, southern France, Italy and the coastline between the western Balkans and Greece. Most models also agree on a substantial future expansion of suitable areas into northern and eastern Europe. About 83% of urban areas are expected to become suitable in the future, in contrast with ~ 49% nowadays. Our findings show that previous research is congruent in identifying wide suitable areas for Aedes albopictus across Europe and in the need to effectively account for climate change in managing and preventing its future spread.
- The susceptibility of urban areas in Europe to vector-borne diseases spread by the Asian Tiger mosquitoPublication . Oliveira, Sandra; Rocha, Jorge; Capinha, CésarThe Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus) is now present in nearly all continentspresent in all populated continents and it is widening its range in temperate regions. As a competent vector to numerous diseases, including dengue, Zika and Chikungunya viruses, public health concerns have encouraged intense research and modelling efforts to assess the suitability to the mosquito in different regions. We evaluated the level of consensus between several model results covering Europe, to identify hotspots of high and low suitability, as well as the areas with higher uncertainty. We analysed the possible variations of suitability levels between present-day and future climatic conditions and identified 9 potential trajectories. Results show strong inter-model consensus regarding the future expansion of the mosquito to northern and eastern Europe, with suitable areas with low uncertainty covering 70% of the study area, whereas no decrease in suitability is expected. We analysed the potential trajectories for 65 large urban areas and found that 83% are predicted suitable to the introduction of the mosquito in the future. Cities located in northern Europe show the most drastic changes, varying from currently unsuitable to certainly suitable. None of the cities analysed is predicted as unsuitable in future climatic scenarios. These results can help defining research pathways for further modelling efforts and show the importance of planning for vector surveillance and control, even in places where Ae. albopictus and the risk of vector-borne diseases is currently absent but is expected to increase in future.
- Policies slow biological invasions in Europe, but legacies still matterPublication . Canelles, Quim; Pérez-Granados, Cristian; Roura-Pascual, Núria; Biancolini, Dino; Blackburn, Tim M.; Capinha, César; Dawson, Wayne; Essl, Franz; Golivets, Marina; Guénard, Benoit; Hui, Cang; Jeschke, Jonathan M.; Kühn, Ingolf; Latombe, Guillaume; Lenzner, Bernd; Seebens, Hanno; Leung, BrianBiological invasions are a main cause of biodiversity loss, prompting international agreements and national policies aimed at preventing and managing the introduction, establishment, spread, and impacts of alien species. However, whether these measures have effectively reduced invasions remains uncertain. In this study, we compared the absolute number of established alien species and changes in invasion rates, accounting for sampling effort and invasion timing, across European Union (EU) countries and the United Kingdom (UK) with the number and types of policies implemented. Policy effects were analyzed alongside other invasion drivers, including trade, climate, and geography. We demonstrate for the first time that invasive species policies within the EU and the UK had significant protective effects. Notably, these effects were evident only when examining changes in invasion rates, emphasizing the need to consider invasion dynamics and policy timing. These results should encourage countries to continue managing invasions and contribute to refining strategies for managing alien species.