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- Assessing the current and future suitability to the Asian Tiger mosquito, a dengue and Zika vector, in major cities in EuropePublication . Oliveira, Sandra; Rocha, Jorge; Capinha, César; Sousa, CarlaThe Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus) is a competent vector of numerous diseases, including the dengue and Zika viruses, and public health concerns have encouraged extensive research to model the environmental suitability to the mosquito. We evaluated the level of consensus between published predictions for the European continent and for a set of 65 major cities. We identified consensus hotspots of high and low suitability and the potential variations of suitability levels between present-day and future climatic conditions. A strong inter-model agreement was found regarding the future expansion of the mosquito to northern and eastern Europe. About 83% of cities are predicted as suitable to the establishment of the mosquito in the future, including in northern Europe, and no decrease in suitability is expected. These results show the importance of planning for vector surveillance and control, even in areas where the risk of establishment of Ae. albopictus is currently low.
- Predicting the time of arrival of the Tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus) to new countries based on trade patterns of tyres and plantsPublication . Oliveira, Sandra; Capinha, César; Rocha, JorgeThe mosquito Aedes albopictus is a highly invasive species, which continues to widen its range worldwide. International trade is a major driver of its dispersal, in particular the imports of tyres and live plants. As a competent vector of numer-ous diseases, among which Zika and dengue, the spread of this species raises public health concerns.2. Based on indicators of trade volumes and trends along 15 years, combined with climatic similarity and geographic distance between countries, we tested a model aimed at estimating the time of arrival of the species in new countries. We used partial least squares regression to model the year of first recording of the species in previously invaded countries. The fitted model was subsequently applied to predict the expected time of arrival in countries where the species is still absent.3. The model was able to estimate the year of first recording of the species with up to 2 years difference for 90% of the countries. Temperature differences among countries and the number of exporting countries where the species is present were the most important predictors. Estimates indicate that Aedes albopictusmight enter all countries assessed by 2035, earlier in Africa and South America than in Eastern and Northern Europe. However, passive transportation by ground vehicles may accelerate the dispersal of the species, whereas environmental suit-ability may have seasonal limits, factors that were not integrated in the model.4. Policy implications: Surveillance and control strategies require timely adjustments to curb the spread of this species, and public health policies must adapt to tackle the potential exposure to vector- borne diseases. Our study highlights that, in the absence of transnational strategies to contain the dispersal of the species, a large number of new countries will be colonized in the coming years, in different re-gions of the world, where the implementation of timely preventive measures is paramount.
- Modelação da potencial distribuição de mosquitos vetores da dengue em Portugal Continental: modelos climáticos atuais e futurosPublication . Santos, José Maurício; Capinha, César; Rocha, JorgeA crescente globalização no transporte de pessoas e bens tem possibilitado uma dispersão súbita de espécies vetores de doenças que durante séculos se mantiveram circunscritas a determinadas regiões. Exemplo disso são os mosquitos Aedes albopictus e Aedes aegypti, os principais vetores de doenças como a dengue e febre amarela, que atualmente apresentam uma ampla distribuição geográfica por todos os continentes. Num contexto de eminente estabelecimento e expansão destes importantes vetores de doenças em Portugal, é fundamental possuir ferramentas que permitam antecipar a propagação espacial de surtos de infeções, com vista à identificação das melhores estratégias de contenção. Modelos espaciais que contemplem a dinâmico espácio-temporal do mosquito de acordo com condições bioclimáticas do território são particularmente úteis para este fim. Como tal, o objetivo do presente trabalho consiste em modelar e identificar a potencial distribuição espacial destes mosquitos em Portugal continental no contexto climático atual e em cenários climáticos futuros. Com recurso a modelos estatísticos e modelos em aprendizagem automática, iremos analisar relações entre dados de condições ambientais determinantes na distribuição destas espécies e registos das suas ocorrências. A partir das relações obtidas iremos projetar a potencial distribuição destes vetorial em Portugal continental a fim de produzir cartografia de adequabilidade ao seu estabelecimento. Os resultados obtidos com o desenvolvimento deste trabalho apresentam diversas potencialidades, sendo no presente contexto a avaliação de risco de infeção do vetor, através de processos de análise espacial, uma das aplicações mais úteis.
- Assessing present and future suitability of major European cities to the Asian Tiger mosquito, a vector of dengue and ZikaPublication . Oliveira, Sandra; Rocha, Jorge; Sousa, Carla A.; Capinha, CésarThe Asian Tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus) is already established in many countries of Europe and cities are particularly vulnerable to the spread of vector-borne diseases. We evaluated the suitability of 62 large urban areas in Europe to the establishment of this mosquito, based on the level of agreement between published predictions of its potential distribution. We classified levels of suitability and uncertainty according to the number of matching models at a 25 km cell size and retrieved the predominant class within the boundaries of each urban area. We analysed 7 independent predictions for current conditions and 5 for future conditions (2050-2080), as well as changes in classes between the two timeframes. Currently, 60% of the cities are suitable to the mosquito, 8% are unsuitable and 32% show high uncertainty. In the future, 87% will be suitable and none will be unsuitable, including cities in the British Isles and Scandinavia, which will have to adapt their public health policies.
- Urban population in Europe is increasingly exposed to vector-borne diseases transmitted by the Asian-Tiger mosquitoPublication . Oliveira, Sandra; Rocha, Jorge; Sousa, Carla; Capinha, CésarThe Asian Tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus) entered in Europe through Albania around 40 years ago and, since then, has spread to nearly 30 European countries. In a context of global and climatic changes, it is expected that the environmental suitability for the mosquito will further expand in the future, therefore increasing the probability of disease outbreaks. Urban areas are particularly vulnerable to the spread of vector-borne diseases, because they offer a high number of potential hosts and have a strong interconnection amongst different areas and neighbourhoods, fostered by available urban mobility options. We analysed how much of the urban population in Europe might be exposed to vector-borne diseases transmitted by the Asian-tiger mosquito, focusing on 65 metropolitan areas and other large cities retrieved from the Urban Audit 2018 (EUROSTAT, 2018). In a first step, we evaluated the environmental suitability of each urban area to the establishment of the species, classifying the level of agreement between published predictions of its distribution. We assumed a high level of certainty on suitability (or unsuitability) if at least 70% of the models agreed, and a high uncertainty otherwise. We aggregated the consensus levels in three categories (suitable, uncertain, unsuitable) and retrieved the corresponding level for each urban area assuming the predominant category within its boundaries. The analysis was performed for two timeframes, regarding present-day and future climatic conditions. Urban population estimates for current (2020) and future (2050) conditions were obtained from the Global Population Grid at 1-km2 resolution based on SSP3 (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway), a scenario of societal development that considers an intermediate level of growth regarding demographics, economics, technology and governance, among other features (). Results show that, currently, 51% of the studied urban areas are already suitable to the establishment of the species, mainly located in southern and central Europe and where 60 million people live. Indeed, outbreaks of dengue and chikungunya viruses transmitted by this species have already occurred in Europe since 2010, for example in France, Italy and Croatia. Conversely, 12% of the urban areas are currently unsuitable to the species, and these are mainly located in Scandinavia, the Baltic countries and Poland. In the future, half of these cities will become suitable with high certainty to the presence of the Asian-tiger mosquito, with over 4 million people exposed. By 2050, none of the urban areas will be unsuitable and over 80% will have suitable environmental conditions for the species, including cities like Zurich, Prague, London or Copenhagen. This means that the number of people potentially exposed is estimated to increase to about 110 million. These findings point to the need of adapting public health policies and implementing strategies to prevent the spread of vector-borne diseases in European urban areas.
- Modelação da adequabilidade de habitat da cidade de Lisboa ao mosquito Aedes albopictusPublication . Carrilho, Daniel; Santos, José Maurício; Rocha, Jorge; Capinha, CésarAtualmente as doenças transmitidas por vetores estão entre as mais relevantes no contexto da saúde pública global. A dengue (DENV), uma doença de que o mosquito Aedes albopictus é vetor, é particularmente preocupante estimando-se que em 2013 tenham ocorrido entre 60 e 140 milhões de casos desta doença (Gould et al., 2017). O estudo da distribuição do Ae. albopictus em meio urbano é de extrema importância, sendo que nas regiões do mundo onde a espécie é não-nativa, a sua ocorrência está fortemente associada à presença humana (Ayllón et al., 2018). Deste modo a análise estatística de associações entre os dados de distribuição da espécie com variáveis descritoras do ambiente urbano a um elevado detalhe espacial apresenta um potencial de utilidade elevado. Esta utilidade será ainda maior se a análise abranger múltiplos contextos urbanos, por exemplo a totalidade de um continente, ao invés de uma única área urbana. Neste contexto, procedeu-se à análise dos padrões de distribuição de Ae. albopictus no conjunto das cidades europeias. Esta análise permitiu diferenciar fatores que têm um efeito à macro-escala (i.e., determinantes de variação na forma de distribuição entre diferentes áreas urbanas) e de fatores que atuam à escala local (i.e., fatores que determinam a distribuição da espécie no interior de todas as áreas urbanas). O resultado final foi o desenvolvimento de um modelo estatístico da distribuição do Ae. albopictus, identificando os fatores ecológicos e ambientais mais relevantes na explicação da distribuição das populações conhecidas. Tendo obtido uma estimativa estatística da importância de cada fator ambiental representa na distribuição do Ae. albopictus nas principais áreas urbanas europeias, passou-se à projeção da distribuição da espécie para o concelho de Lisboa. O concelho de Lisboa foi selecionado por 5 razões chave: i) no contexto português, Lisboa, para além de ser capital administrativa, tem um contexto único de centralidade; ii) todas as variáveis ambientais consideradas nos modelos estão disponíveis para este concelho; iii) esta área apresenta também uma elevada diversidade de tipos e ocupações de solo, tecido urbano, áreas urbanas verdes, áreas florestais e proximidade a água; iv) possui também uma densidade populacional elevada, principalmente no contexto nacional; v) finalmente a questão de ser uma área onde ainda anão se conhecerem registos de ocorrência da espécie. A modelação preditiva para a cidade de Lisboa permitiu aferir dois tipos de resultados. Primeiro verificámos que que as áreas que apresentam uma tipologia urbana mais vincada são as exibem valores mais elevados de adequabilidade para a espécie. Inversamente, a área de menor adequabilidade corresponde ao Parque de Monsanto, caracterizado por uma ocupação de solo dominantemente florestal. Já os resultados referentes ao risco, que entram também em consideração com a distribuição da população humana, destacam-se pelos seus valores elevados as freguesias de São Vicente, Penha de França, Arroios, Campo de Ourique, São Domingos de Benfica e o Norte da freguesia de Benfica. Por outro lado, as áreas de menor risco correspondem ao Parque de Monsanto e à área do Aeroporto, refletindo uma população residente reduzida ou uma baixa suscetibilidade à ocorrência do mosquito.
- Modeling the distribution of Aedes Albopictus in European main Urban AreasPublication . Rocha, Jorge; Capinha, CésarThe mosquito Aedes albopictus has been dispersed worldwide by human activities. This species is an important vector of arboviruses, including dengue, chikungunya and Zika and is now one of the greatest threats to global public health. Due to the medical importance of this species, previous studies have examined its ecological requirements and predicted its potential distribution for various regions of the world. However, to date, there is no attempt to perform such analyses across European cities and at a high spatial detail. Hence, in this work we aim to fill this gap by modelling the potential distribution of the species across the major functional urban areas of Europe, using high resolution predictors. The modelling tested for associations between the observed distribution of the species and spatial variables considered relevant in determining its distribution, particularly climate and land use. Complementary models also examined the possibility of spatial bias in the mosquito distribution data as driven simply by higher human observational capacity. Model results suggest the absence of significant observational bias and that densely urbanized urban together with higher temperatures and water availability in drier months favor the occurrence of the species. The models were also applied to predict areas under susceptibility of establishment of the species in Lisbon, a city where the species has not yet been observed. From this prediction we found that the areas under higher susceptibility are mainly associated to the urban centers, whereas green areas, most notably Monsanto Park, are least susceptible. Finally, we developed a risk map, resulting from the intersection of susceptibility and human population, which allowed pinpointing the areas in the city where the threats inflicted by the species are higher.
- Wide and increasing suitability for Aedes albopictus in Europe is congruent across distribution modelsPublication . Oliveira, Sandra; Rocha, Jorge; Sousa, Carla A.; Capinha, CésarThe Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus), a vector of dengue, Zika and other diseases, was introduced in Europe in the 1970s, where it is still widening its range. Spurred by public health concerns, several studies have delivered predictions of the current and future distribution of the species for this region, often with differing results. We provide the first joint analysis of these predictions, to identify consensus hotspots of high and low suitability, as well as areas with high uncertainty. The analysis focused on current and future climate conditions and was carried out for the whole of Europe and for 65 major urban areas. High consensus on current suitability was found for the northwest of the Iberian Peninsula, southern France, Italy and the coastline between the western Balkans and Greece. Most models also agree on a substantial future expansion of suitable areas into northern and eastern Europe. About 83% of urban areas are expected to become suitable in the future, in contrast with ~ 49% nowadays. Our findings show that previous research is congruent in identifying wide suitable areas for Aedes albopictus across Europe and in the need to effectively account for climate change in managing and preventing its future spread.
- Análise espaço-temporal de condições adequadas ao estabelecimento do vetor de doenças Aedes Albopictus na cidade de Barcelona com recurso a deteção remotaPublication . Álvaro, Carlos; Tenedório, José; Rocha, Jorge; Capinha, César; Santos, TeresaNativo do sudoeste asiático, o mosquito tigre asiático (Aedes albopictus), tem vindo a estabelecer-se progressivamente em áreas do Continente Europeu como espécie invasora. Este mosquito é vetor eficiente de doenças como a Dengue e Chicungunha. Estudos anteriores demonstraram estar associado com a vegetação em meios urbanos. A deteção remota de vegetação na Cidade de Barcelona, feita através da análise multitemporal de imagens Sentinel-2 MSI, permitiu testar a relação entre o coberto vegetal e as ocorrências deste vetor. A análise dos resultados revela uma elevada correlação positiva entre a sua ocorrência e a vegetação, com uma grande influência da vegetação temporária.
- Urban population in Europe is increasingly exposed to vector-borne diseases transmitted by the Asian-Tiger mosquitoPublication . Oliveira, Sandra; Rocha, Jorge; Sousa, Carla A.; Capinha, CésarThe Asian Tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus) is already established in many countries of Europe and cities are particularly vulnerable to the spread of vector-borne diseases. We evaluated the suitability of 62 large urban areas in Europe to the establishment of this mosquito, based on the level of agreement between published predictions of its potential distribution. We classified levels of suitability and uncertainty according to the number of matching models at a 25 km cell size and retrieved the predominant class within the boundaries of each urban area. We analysed 7 independent predictions for current conditions and 5 for future conditions (2050-2080), as well as changes in classes between the two timeframes. Currently, 60% of the cities are suitable to the mosquito, 8% are unsuitable and 32% show high uncertainty. In the future, 87% will be suitable and none will be unsuitable, including cities in the British Isles and Scandinavia, which will have to adapt their public health policies.