Browsing by Author "Novais, Ana"
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- Distinguishing between mitigation and adaptation as wildfire prevention actionsPublication . Canadas, Maria João; Leal, Miguel; Soares, Filipa; Novais, Ana; Ribeiro, Paulo Flores; Delicado, Ana; Bergonse, Rafaello; Oliveira, Sandra; Moreira, Francisco; Schmidt, Luísa; Santos, José LimaThere is actually a broad consensus over the need to shift from fire suppression to fire prevention strategies. To inform policies that effectively promote this shift, we distinguish between actions aimed at more fire-resilient landscapes and those focused on the protection of people, i.e., wildfire mitigation and adaptation (WM&A), respectively. With the goal of discussing the usefulness of this distinction and identifying local factors and external resources that promote preventive actions, we developed an analysis of collective WM&A actions across 116 parishes in a wildfire-prone region in Portugal, Pinhal Interior. Two principal component analyses were used to explore relationships between variables expressing collective WM&A actions. Random forest was used to model how those actions are related to local factors (land use/land cover, population, institutions) and external resources for wildfire prevention. Our results showed that collective mitigation and adaptation responses to wildfire are independent, in coherence with their distinct goals, actors involved, and policy domains. Mitigation through owners’ collaboration proved to be strongly related to policy funding, local economic dynamism and demographic vitality, unlike community adaptation. In fact, adaptation responses from the local governments and the very few existing residents’ collaboratives are very incipient. We conclude, on one hand, that mitigation and adaptation actions are currently supported by two unequally consolidated policy domains and, on the other hand, that both domains are equally underfunded, namely because of the difficulties in expanding owner collaboratives beyond favorable local conditions, i.e., in socioeconomically depressed regions.
- A farming systems approach to linking agricultural policies with biodiversity and ecosystem servicesPublication . Santos, José Lima; Moreira, Francisco; Ribeiro, Paulo F.; Canadas, Maria João; Novais, Ana; Lomba, AngelaMany countries are reshaping their agricultural policies to better enhance biodiversity and ecosystem services (BES) in farmlands, but measuring the effectiveness of policy instruments in BES delivery is challenging. Using the European Agricultural Policy as an example, we propose the application of a farming systems (FS) approach as a cost-effective tool for linking policy design and expected BES outcomes. On the basis of available data from subsidy payment agencies, such an approach can identify groups of farms that share similar management practices as well as the associations between FS and corresponding BES potential, and improve modeled outputs of farm management responses to policies and other drivers of change. We describe how this relatively unexplored source of information can help to support applied ecological research and relevant policy, and call for these data to be made available across Europe and elsewhere
- Promoting Landscape-Level Forest Management in Fire-Prone Areas: Delegate Management to a Multi-Owner Collaborative, Rent the Land, or Just Sell It?Publication . Martins, Ana; Novais, Ana; Santos, José Lima; Canadas, Maria João; José M.C. PereiraForest management at the landscape level is a requirement for reducing wildfire hazard. In contexts where non-industrial private forest ownership prevails, the collaboration among multiple owners has been proposed as the way forward to reach consistent fuel management at that level. The current literature has been focused on identifying the factors that lead to collaboration among owners. In this study we explored other ways to reach landscape-level management in addition to the collaborative way, such as those that may be promoted through land renting or selling. Different contexts and owner types may require different solutions. Thus, we explicitly asked which alternative would be chosen by a given forest owner, from the following set: keeping individual management, entering a multi-owner collaborative arrangement where they delegate management, renting to a pulp company; or selling the land. In a context of small-scale ownership and high recurrence of wildfires in Portugal, a face-to-face survey was carried out to a sample of landowners. Our results suggest that there is not an a priori generalized unwillingness of owners to delegate management, rent or sell the land and thus they seem prone to align themselves with policy strategies to promote management at the landscape level. Multinomial logit regression modelling allowed us to explain and predict owners’ choices among the aforementioned set of alternative management options. We found that choosing multi-ownership collaboration, as opposed to keeping current individual management, is associated with passive management under harsher conditions, by non-residents without bonding capital. The identified factors of owners’ choices show the limited scope of tenancy and land-market mechanisms to promote landscape-level management. The best policy option was found to depend on the owner profiles prevailing in the target area. This suggests that studying the existing context and owner types is required to design effective policies
- Promoting low-risk fire regimes: an agent-based model to explore wildfire mitigation policy optionsPublication . Ribeiro, Paulo Flores; Moreira, Francisco; Canadas, Maria João; Novais, Ana; Leal, Miguel; Oliveira, Sandra; Bergonse, Rafaello; Zêzere, José Luís; Santos, José LimaLandscape patterns and composition were identified as key drivers of fire risk and fire regimes. However, few studies have focused on effective policymaking aimed at encouraging landowners to diversify the landscape and make it more fire-resilient. We propose a new framework to support the design of wildfire mitigation policies aimed at promoting low-risk fire regimes based on land use/land cover choices by landowners. Using the parishes of a fire-prone region in central Portugal as analysis units, a two-step modelling approach is proposed, coupling an agent-based model that simulates land use/land cover choice and a logistic model that predicts fire regimes from a set of biophysical variables reported as important fire regime drivers in the literature. The cost-effectiveness of different policy options aimed at promoting low-risk fire regimes at the parish level is assessed. Our results are in line with those of previous studies defending the importance of promoting landscape heterogeneity by reducing forest concentration and increasing agricultural or shrubland areas as a measure to reduce the risk of wildfire. Results also suggest the usefulness of the framework as a policy simulation tool, allowing policymakers to investigate how annual payments supporting agricultural or shrubland areas, depending on the policy mix, can be very cost-effective in removing a substantial number of parishes from high-risk fire regimes.
- Promoting low-risk fire regimes: an agent-based model to explore wildfire mitigation policy optionsPublication . Ribeiro, Paulo Flores; Moreira, Francisco; Canadas, Maria João; Novais, Ana; Leal, Miguel; Oliveira, Sandra; Bergonse, Rafaello; Zêzere, José; Santos, José LimaLandscape patterns and composition were identified as key drivers of fire risk and fire regimes. However, few studies have focused on effective policymaking aimed at encouraging landowners to diversify the landscape and make it more fire-resilient. We propose a new framework to support the design of wildfire mitigation policies aimed at promoting low-risk fire regimes based on land use/land cover choices by landowners. Using the parishes of a fire-prone region in central Portugal as analysis units, a two-step modelling approach is proposed, coupling an agent-based model that simulates land use/land cover choice and a logistic model that predicts fire regimes from a set of biophysical variables reported as important fire regime drivers in the literature. The cost-effectiveness of different policy options aimed at promoting low-risk fire regimes at the parish level is assessed. Our results are in line with those of previous studies defending the importance of promoting landscape heterogeneity by reducing forest concentration and increasing agricultural or shrubland areas as a measure to reduce the risk of wildfire. Results also suggest the usefulness of the framework as a policy simulation tool, allowing policymakers to investigate how annual payments supporting agricultural or shrubland areas, depending on the policy mix, can be very cost-effective in removing a substantial number of parishes from high-risk fire regimes.
- Recent trends in fire regimes and associated territorial features in a fire-prone Mediterranean RegionPublication . Moreira, Francisco; Leal, Miguel; Bergonse, Rafaello; Canadas, Maria João; Novais, Ana; Oliveira, Sandra; Ribeiro, Paulo Flores; Zêzere, José Luís; Santos, José LimaFire regimes in Mediterranean countries have been shifting in recent decades, including changes in wildfire size and frequency. We sought to describe changes in fire regimes across two periods (1975–1995 and 1996–2018) in a fire-prone region of central Portugal, explore the relationships between these regimes and territorial features, and check whether these associations persisted across periods. Two independent indicators of fire regimes were determined at parish level: fire incidence and burn concentration. Most parishes presented higher values of both indicators in the second period. Higher values of fire incidence were associated with lower population densities, lower proportions of farmland areas and higher proportions of natural vegetation. Higher levels of burn concentration were associated with smaller areas of farmland and natural vegetation. These associations differed across periods, reflecting contrasting climatic and socio-economic contexts. Keeping 40% of a parish territory covered by farmland was effective to buffer the increased wildfire risks associated with different management and climate contexts. The effectiveness of higher population densities in keeping fire incidence low decreased in the last decades. The results can improve the knowledge on the temporal evolution of fire regimes and their conditioning factors, providing contributions for spatial planning and forest/wildfire management policies.
- Recent trends in fire regimes and associated territorial features in a fire-prone Mediterranean regionPublication . Moreira, Francisco; Leal, Miguel; Bergonse, Rafaello; Canadas, Maria João; Novais, Ana; Oliveira, Sandra; Ribeiro, Paulo Flores; Zêzere, José; Santos, José LimaFire regimes in Mediterranean countries have been shifting in recent decades, including changes in wildfire size and frequency. We sought to describe changes in fire regimes across two periods (1975–1995 and 1996–2018) in a fire-prone region of central Portugal, explore the relationships between these regimes and territorial features, and check whether these associations persisted across periods. Two independent indicators of fire regimes were determined at parish level: fire incidence and burn concentration. Most parishes presented higher values of both indicators in the second period. Higher values of fire incidence were associated with lower population densities, lower proportions of farmland areas and higher proportions of natural vegetation. Higher levels of burn concentration were associated with smaller areas of farmland and natural vegetation. These associations differed across periods, reflecting contrasting climatic and socio-economic contexts. Keeping 40% of a parish territory covered by farmland was effective to buffer the increased wildfire risks associated with different management and climate contexts. The effectiveness of higher population densities in keeping fire incidence low decreased in the last decades. The results can improve the knowledge on the temporal evolution of fire regimes and their conditioning factors, providing contributions for spatial planning and forest/wildfire management policies.
- The current policy focus shift from a sectoral to a territorial governance of wildfire reduction is aligned with forest owners’ preferencesPublication . Canadas, Maria João; Leal, Miguel; Novais, Ana; Ribeiro, Paulo Flores; Santos, José LimaLand management for wildfire reduction has been said to require new governance arrangements that ensure the coordination at the local level among landowners and between them and other relevant private and public actors. To promote a shift in the policy approach to wildfire mitigation from the current focus on fuel management, within the forestry sector, to a more effective cross-sectoral landscape transformation, this governance problem takes on even greater importance. Given the diversity of owners within a territory, our main goal is to identify a governance arrangement that match the heterogeneity of owners’ preferences for alternative governance options. Based on a face-to-face survey of 497 owners in a fire-prone region, four types of owners have been identified using a cluster analysis based on management practices and socioeconomic context. Our results show that the type of owner helps explaining their preferences for alternative governance options. Owners that are more active (e.g. regular forest interventions) and have stronger links to the forestry sector, through regular timber sales and participation in forest owner organizations, favor the keeping of individual management over the delegation of management on others or the renting or selling of the land. Although many of these owners see forest organizations alone as the best entities to promote wildfire mitigation, the majority would prefer solutions that also integrate local authorities. Owners that are less active (e.g. no forest interventions) and have weaker links to the sector (no timber sales and no enrollment in forest organizations) consider renting or selling the land, and view a combination of both local authorities and forest organizations as the best solution to promote wildfire reduction at the local level. We conclude that a multi-actor (public-private) territorially-based governance model fits both the required transition in the policy approach and the diverse preferences of different owner types.
- Understanding the management logic of private forest owners: a new approachPublication . Novais, Ana; Canadas, Maria JoãoRecently, several typologies of non-industrial private forest owners were established in order to assess their objectives and attitudes toward forests. However, current management practices and work organization have usually not been explicitly addressed in these empirically based typologies. In a context of increasing outsourcing and decreasing family work in forests, it is important to know the forest practices, who carries them out, and with whose labour and equipment. The interrelated knowledge of these variables sheds light on the constraints faced by different forest owners and about the agents caring for their forests. Such knowledge can also improve the understanding of forest owners' behaviour and, therefore, be useful for the design and implementation of forest policies. The work models of Portuguese non-industrial private forest were identified with these goals in mind. A cluster analysis, using a representative nationwide sample and an empirically based set of variables, was instrumental in identifying six work models. The interrelation amongst these models and other variables such as landholding attributes (e.g. forest size and dominant species), owners' social profile, and their economic goals was also assessed. Finally, the main dynamics of private owners' forest management are outlined.
- Wildfire mitigation and adaptation: Two locally independent actions supported by different policy domainsPublication . Canadas, Maria João; Leal, Miguel; Soares, Filipa; Novais, Ana; Ribeiro, Paulo Flores; Schmidt, Luísa; Delicado, Ana; Moreira, Francisco; Bergonse, Rafaello; Oliveira, Sandra; Madeira, Paulo Miguel; Santos, José LimaThere is a broad consensus in the academic and policy communities over the need to shift the focus from fire suppression to fire prevention. To inform policies that effectively promote this shift, we distinguish between prevention actions aimed at more fire-resilient landscapes and those focused on the protection of people, i.e., wildfire mitigation and adaptation (WM&A), respectively. With the goal of discussing the usefulness of this distinction and identifying local factors and external resources that promote each of those preventive actions, we developed an analysis of collective WM&A actions across 116 parishes in a wildfire-prone region in Portugal, using primary and secondary data. Two principal component analyses were used to explore relationships between variables expressing collective WM&A actions. Random forest, a machine learning technique based on multiple decision trees, was used to model how those actions are related to local factors (land use/land cover, population, institutions) and access to policy funding for wildfire prevention. Our results showed that collective mitigation and adaptation responses to wildfire are locally independent, in coherence with their distinct goals, actors involved, and institutional and policy framing. Mitigation through owners’ collaboration proved to be strongly related to policy funding (notably that exclusively addressed at mitigation), local socioeconomic dynamism, and ownership structure, whereas adaptation responses are related with leadership by local governments. Considering these differences, the incipiency of adaptation actions, and the difficulties in expanding owner’s collaboratives beyond the most favourable local conditions, we conclude that mitigation and adaptation actions are currently supported by two distinct policy domains with unequal consolidation but equally underfunded.