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Advisor(s)
Abstract(s)
Landscape patterns and composition were identified as key drivers of fire risk and fire
regimes. However, few studies have focused on effective policymaking aimed at encouraging
landowners to diversify the landscape and make it more fire-resilient. We propose a new framework
to support the design of wildfire mitigation policies aimed at promoting low-risk fire regimes based
on land use/land cover choices by landowners. Using the parishes of a fire-prone region in central
Portugal as analysis units, a two-step modelling approach is proposed, coupling an agent-based
model that simulates land use/land cover choice and a logistic model that predicts fire regimes
from a set of biophysical variables reported as important fire regime drivers in the literature. The
cost-effectiveness of different policy options aimed at promoting low-risk fire regimes at the parish
level is assessed. Our results are in line with those of previous studies defending the importance of
promoting landscape heterogeneity by reducing forest concentration and increasing agricultural or
shrubland areas as a measure to reduce the risk of wildfire. Results also suggest the usefulness of the
framework as a policy simulation tool, allowing policymakers to investigate how annual payments
supporting agricultural or shrubland areas, depending on the policy mix, can be very cost-effective
in removing a substantial number of parishes from high-risk fire regimes.
Description
Keywords
wildfire mitigation wildfire policy fire regime agent-based modelling land cover choice fire resilience
Pedagogical Context
Citation
Ribeiro, P.F.; Moreira, F.; Canadas, M.J.; Novais, A.; Leal, M.; Oliveira, S.; Bergonse, R.; Zêzere, J.L.; Santos, J.L. Promoting low-risk fire regimes: an agent-based model to explore wildfire mitigation policy options. Fire 2023, 6, 102.
Publisher
MDPI