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Wildfire mitigation and adaptation: Two locally independent actions supported by different policy domains

Publication . Canadas, Maria João; Leal, Miguel; Soares, Filipa; Novais, Ana; Ribeiro, Paulo Flores; Schmidt, Luísa; Delicado, Ana; Moreira, Francisco; Bergonse, Rafaello; Oliveira, Sandra; Madeira, Paulo Miguel; Santos, José Lima

There is a broad consensus in the academic and policy communities over the need to shift the focus from fire suppression to fire prevention. To inform policies that effectively promote this shift, we distinguish between prevention actions aimed at more fire-resilient landscapes and those focused on the protection of people, i.e., wildfire mitigation and adaptation (WM&A), respectively. With the goal of discussing the usefulness of this distinction and identifying local factors and external resources that promote each of those preventive actions, we developed an analysis of collective WM&A actions across 116 parishes in a wildfire-prone region in Portugal, using primary and secondary data. Two principal component analyses were used to explore relationships between variables expressing collective WM&A actions. Random forest, a machine learning technique based on multiple decision trees, was used to model how those actions are related to local factors (land use/land cover, population, institutions) and access to policy funding for wildfire prevention. Our results showed that collective mitigation and adaptation responses to wildfire are locally independent, in coherence with their distinct goals, actors involved, and institutional and policy framing. Mitigation through owners’ collaboration proved to be strongly related to policy funding (notably that exclusively addressed at mitigation), local socioeconomic dynamism, and ownership structure, whereas adaptation responses are related with leadership by local governments. Considering these differences, the incipiency of adaptation actions, and the difficulties in expanding owner’s collaboratives beyond the most favourable local conditions, we conclude that mitigation and adaptation actions are currently supported by two distinct policy domains with unequal consolidation but equally underfunded.

2023Journal article

Open access

Disentangling the seasonal effects of agricultural intensification on birds and bats in Mediterranean olive groves

Publication . Jiménez-Navarro, Gerardo; Rodríguez-Pérez, Javier; Melguizo-Ruiz, Nereida; Silva, Bruno; Vasconcelos, Sasha; Beja, Pedro; Moreira, Francisco; Morgado, Rui; Barreiro, Silvia; Herrera, José M.

Assessing the spatio-temporal impact of agricultural intensification on species and communities is key for biodiversity conservation. Here, we investigated the seasonal effects of olive grove intensification at both local (farming practices and grove structural complexity) and landscape scale (land-cover diversity) on birds and bats, at species and community-level. Both groups were surveyed during spring, summer, and autumn in 60 sites representing varying levels of olive grove intensification throughout the Alentejo region (southern Portugal). At the local scale, the number of chemical applications was used as a proxy for the intensification of farming practices and a Structural Index, which accounted for within-grove variability in tree density and features, was used as a measure of grove structural complexity. At landscape scale, we quantified the proportion of the major land-cover types potentially affecting birds and bats. We found that the abundance of ca. 77% of the species analyzed (ca. 84% and 55% of birds and bats respectively) was negatively related to olive grove intensification in at least one season. The Structural Index was the most influential factor at both species and community-levels, especially for birds, with a consistent and strong effect across seasons. Chemical applications had a stronger negative effect on birds, whereas the amount of olive grove cover had a stronger detrimental effect on bats. Birds and bats showed a variable response to predictor variables depending on the season, particularly for the bat community. Our study shows differences in bird and bat responses associated with the spatio-temporal variability of the agricultural intensification components. On the one hand, birds and bats showed a seasonal pattern of association with the different components of olive grove intensification, probably due to their ecological and biological requirements. On the other hand, the responses of both groups also appear to be scale-dependent: while birds seem to respond to in-farm or local intensification more strongly, bats seem to be more influenced by landscape-scale simplification. Overall, we highlight the importance of the structural complexity of olive groves for birds and bats, an aspect that should be considered in the design of agricultural policies aiming to promote biodiversity conservation.

2023-02Journal article

Open access

Recent trends in fire regimes and associated territorial features in a fire-prone Mediterranean Region

Publication . Moreira, Francisco; Leal, Miguel; Bergonse, Rafaello; Canadas, Maria João; Novais, Ana; Oliveira, Sandra; Ribeiro, Paulo Flores; Zêzere, José Luís; Santos, José Lima

Fire regimes in Mediterranean countries have been shifting in recent decades, including changes in wildfire size and frequency. We sought to describe changes in fire regimes across two periods (1975–1995 and 1996–2018) in a fire-prone region of central Portugal, explore the relationships between these regimes and territorial features, and check whether these associations persisted across periods. Two independent indicators of fire regimes were determined at parish level: fire incidence and burn concentration. Most parishes presented higher values of both indicators in the second period. Higher values of fire incidence were associated with lower population densities, lower proportions of farmland areas and higher proportions of natural vegetation. Higher levels of burn concentration were associated with smaller areas of farmland and natural vegetation. These associations differed across periods, reflecting contrasting climatic and socio-economic contexts. Keeping 40% of a parish territory covered by farmland was effective to buffer the increased wildfire risks associated with different management and climate contexts. The effectiveness of higher population densities in keeping fire incidence low decreased in the last decades. The results can improve the knowledge on the temporal evolution of fire regimes and their conditioning factors, providing contributions for spatial planning and forest/wildfire management policies.

2023-02Journal article

Open access

Promoting low-risk fire regimes: an agent-based model to explore wildfire mitigation policy options

Publication . Ribeiro, Paulo Flores; Moreira, Francisco; Canadas, Maria João; Novais, Ana; Leal, Miguel; Oliveira, Sandra; Bergonse, Rafaello; Zêzere, José Luís; Santos, José Lima

Landscape patterns and composition were identified as key drivers of fire risk and fire regimes. However, few studies have focused on effective policymaking aimed at encouraging landowners to diversify the landscape and make it more fire-resilient. We propose a new framework to support the design of wildfire mitigation policies aimed at promoting low-risk fire regimes based on land use/land cover choices by landowners. Using the parishes of a fire-prone region in central Portugal as analysis units, a two-step modelling approach is proposed, coupling an agent-based model that simulates land use/land cover choice and a logistic model that predicts fire regimes from a set of biophysical variables reported as important fire regime drivers in the literature. The cost-effectiveness of different policy options aimed at promoting low-risk fire regimes at the parish level is assessed. Our results are in line with those of previous studies defending the importance of promoting landscape heterogeneity by reducing forest concentration and increasing agricultural or shrubland areas as a measure to reduce the risk of wildfire. Results also suggest the usefulness of the framework as a policy simulation tool, allowing policymakers to investigate how annual payments supporting agricultural or shrubland areas, depending on the policy mix, can be very cost-effective in removing a substantial number of parishes from high-risk fire regimes.

2023-03Journal article

Open access