People&Fire: Reducing Risk, Living with Risk

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Wildfire management in Mediterranean-type regions: paradigm change needed

Publication . Moreira, Francisco; Ascoli, Davide; Safford, Hugh; Adams, Mark A.; Moreno, José M.; Cardoso Pereira, José Miguel; Catry, Filipe; Armest, Juan; Bond, William; González, Mauro E.; Curt, Thomas; Koutsias, Nikos; McCaw, Lachlan; Price, Owen; Pausas, Juli G.; Rigolot, Eric; Stephens, Scott; Tavsanogoglu, Cagatay; Ramon Vallejo, V.; Wilgen, Brian W. van; Xanthopoulos, Gavriil; Fernandes, Paulo M.

During the last decades, climate and land use changes led to an increased prevalence ofmegafires in Mediterranean-type climate regions (MCRs).Here, we argue that current wildfire management policies in MCRs are destined to fail.Focused on fire suppression, these policies largely ignore ongoing climate warming and landscape-scale buildup of fuels.The result is a ‘firefighting trap’ that contributes to ongoing fuel accumulation precluding suppression under extreme fire weather, and resulting in more severe and larger fires.We believe that a ‘business as usual’ approach to wildfire in MCRs will not solve the fire problem, and recommend that policy and expenditures be rebalanced between suppression and mitigation of the negative impacts of fire.This requires a paradigm shift: policy effectiveness should not be primarily measured as a function of area burned (as it usually is), but rather as a function of avoided socio-ecological damage and loss

2020Journal article

Open access

A combined structural and seasonal approach to assess wildfire susceptibility and hazard in summertime

Publication . Bergonse, Rafaello; Oliveira, Sandra; Gonçalves, Ana; Nunes, Sílvia; da Câmara, Carlos; Zêzere, José

Wildfre susceptibility and hazard models based on drivers that change only on a multiyear timescale are considered of a structural nature. They ignore specifc short-term conditions in any year and period within the year, especially summer, when most wildfre damage occurs in southern Europe. We investigate whether the predictive capacity of structural wildfre susceptibility and hazard models can be improved by integrating a seasonal dimension, expressed by three variables with yearly to seasonal timescales: (1) a meteorological index rating fuel fammability at the onset of summer; (2) the scarcity of fuel associated with the burned areas of the previous year, and (3) the excessive abundance of fuel in especially fre-prone areas that have not been burned in the previous ten years. We describe a new methodology for combining the structural maps with the seasonal variables, producing year-specifc seasonal susceptibility and hazard maps. We then compare the structural and seasonal maps as to their capacity to predict burnt areas during the summer period in a set of eight independent years. The seasonal maps revealed a higher predictive capacity in 75% of the validation period, both for susceptibility and hazard, when only the highest class was considered. This percentage was reduced to 50% when the two highest classes were considered together. In some years, structural factors and other unconsidered variables probably exert a strong infuence over the spatial pattern of wildfre incidence. These fndings can complement existing structural data and improve the mapping tools used to defne wildfre prevention and mitigation actions.

2021Journal article

Open access

Reassessing wildfire susceptibility and hazard for mainland Portugal

Publication . Oliveira, Sandra; Gonçalves, Ana; Zêzere, José

Recent large wildfires have caused serious environmental and social impacts in different areas of the world, such as Portugal, Greece and Australia. Sociodemographic changes in rural areas and climate change issues create unprecedented and challenging circumstances that call for an adjustment of fire management strategies and planning tools. In this research, we revise the procedure to assess wildfire susceptibility and hazard for mainland Portugal in a structural perspective. Based on a dataset of burned areas covering 44 years and a set of predisposing factors related to topography and landcover, we tested several susceptibility models using the Likelihood Ratio method, to calculate favourability scores. Landcover classes were analysed using national detailed sources and considering different timeframes. Hazard levels were obtained by combining the susceptibility model with the best accuracy and the probability to burn estimated from fire history (1975-2018). The resulting hazard values were classified in 5 levels based on the breaks of the success curve, instead of quantiles as in previous maps, to ensure territorial continuity at different spatial scales. The results show where the combination of terrain features is more favorable to fire propagation. The higher favourability scores were found for shrubland-type vegetation, whereas agricultural areas, cork and holm forests show lower scores. Eucalyptus and maritime pine forests show similar intermediate scores and have increased since 2007. The two highest hazard classes classify correctly 90% of the burned area over 44 years, demonstrating the high accuracy of the model. If integrated in spatial planning instruments, in conjunction with municipal plans, the two most hazardous classes may hinder the expansion of built-up areas. About 2% of the municipalities have more than 90% of their territory classified as hazardous, whereas 32% of the municipalities have, instead, less than 10% of hazardous area. These structural maps are a useful baseline for a long-term approach and can be complemented by estimations regarding the behavior and severity of wildfires, which should be further explored.

2021Journal article

Open access

Adapting whilst recovering: Local responses to the 2017 wildfires in Portugal

Publication . Soares, Filipa; Schmidt, Luísa; Delicado, Ana

In recent decades, wildfires have become increasingly frequent and destructive worldwide. To tackle them, a shift in wildfire governance has been advocated: from fighting fire towards a ‘coexisting with fire’ strategy that emphasises fostering long-term, community-led transformations to reduce wildfire risk. This topic has received scant attention, particularly in Southern Europe, a region also grappling with land abandonment and an ageing, dwindling population. This article explores how such transformations unfold at the local level by exploring ten local responses to the catastrophic 2017 wildfires in Portugal, which caused over a hundred casualties and countless damages. Using a collective case study approach and qualitative research methods, the article analyses the practices, motivations, opportunities, and challenges underpinning four groups of initiatives: creating defensible areas around villages, reforesting communal land, goat grazing, and water infrastructures. These aim to simultaneously enhance security, reduce wildfire risk, and revitalise local economies and ecologies. Key elements facilitating these transformations include leadership, particularly by newcomers and local mayors, external funding, and volunteer work. However, challenges such as financial constraints, social conflicts, and land fragmentation challenge the sustainability of these efforts. While context-specific, our analysis suggests that the post-wildfire recovery phase can catalyse significant socioecological transformations in depopulated rural areas of Southern Europe, highlighting the need for further research to support communities in reducing wildfire risk. Ultimately, the study reveals how transforming landscapes and restoring practices of care might bring into being safer, more liveable, less flammable futures in devitalised rural areas amidst the growing threat of wildfires.

2025Journal article

Open access

Promoting low-risk fire regimes: an agent-based model to explore wildfire mitigation policy options

Publication . Ribeiro, Paulo Flores; Moreira, Francisco; Canadas, Maria João; Novais, Ana; Leal, Miguel; Oliveira, Sandra; Bergonse, Rafaello; Zêzere, José Luís; Santos, José Lima

Landscape patterns and composition were identified as key drivers of fire risk and fire regimes. However, few studies have focused on effective policymaking aimed at encouraging landowners to diversify the landscape and make it more fire-resilient. We propose a new framework to support the design of wildfire mitigation policies aimed at promoting low-risk fire regimes based on land use/land cover choices by landowners. Using the parishes of a fire-prone region in central Portugal as analysis units, a two-step modelling approach is proposed, coupling an agent-based model that simulates land use/land cover choice and a logistic model that predicts fire regimes from a set of biophysical variables reported as important fire regime drivers in the literature. The cost-effectiveness of different policy options aimed at promoting low-risk fire regimes at the parish level is assessed. Our results are in line with those of previous studies defending the importance of promoting landscape heterogeneity by reducing forest concentration and increasing agricultural or shrubland areas as a measure to reduce the risk of wildfire. Results also suggest the usefulness of the framework as a policy simulation tool, allowing policymakers to investigate how annual payments supporting agricultural or shrubland areas, depending on the policy mix, can be very cost-effective in removing a substantial number of parishes from high-risk fire regimes.

2023-03Journal article

Open access