Loading...
Publication
A combined structural and seasonal approach to assess wildfire susceptibility and hazard in summertime
| Name: | Description: | Size: | Format: | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.15 MB | Adobe PDF |
Advisor(s)
Abstract(s)
Wildfre susceptibility and hazard models based on drivers that change only on a multiyear
timescale are considered of a structural nature. They ignore specifc short-term conditions
in any year and period within the year, especially summer, when most wildfre damage
occurs in southern Europe. We investigate whether the predictive capacity of structural
wildfre susceptibility and hazard models can be improved by integrating a seasonal dimension, expressed by three variables with yearly to seasonal timescales: (1) a meteorological
index rating fuel fammability at the onset of summer; (2) the scarcity of fuel associated
with the burned areas of the previous year, and (3) the excessive abundance of fuel in especially fre-prone areas that have not been burned in the previous ten years. We describe a
new methodology for combining the structural maps with the seasonal variables, producing
year-specifc seasonal susceptibility and hazard maps. We then compare the structural and
seasonal maps as to their capacity to predict burnt areas during the summer period in a set
of eight independent years. The seasonal maps revealed a higher predictive capacity in 75%
of the validation period, both for susceptibility and hazard, when only the highest class was
considered. This percentage was reduced to 50% when the two highest classes were considered together. In some years, structural factors and other unconsidered variables probably
exert a strong infuence over the spatial pattern of wildfre incidence. These fndings can
complement existing structural data and improve the mapping tools used to defne wildfre
prevention and mitigation actions.
Description
Keywords
Wildfre susceptibility Hazard assessment Structural approach Seasonal variables Portugal
Pedagogical Context
Citation
Bergonse, R., Oliveira, S., Gonçalves, A., & Nunes, S. (2021). A combined structural and seasonal approach to assess wildfire susceptibility and hazard in summertime. Natural Hazards, 106, 2545–2573. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-021-04554-7
Publisher
Springer