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A combined structural and seasonal approach to assess wildfire susceptibility and hazard in summertime

2021Journal article Open access
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dc.contributor.authorBergonse, Rafaello
dc.contributor.authorOliveira, Sandra
dc.contributor.authorGonçalves, Ana
dc.contributor.authorNunes, Sílvia
dc.contributor.authorda Câmara, Carlos
dc.contributor.authorZêzere, José
dc.date.accessioned2021-02-15T17:56:29Z
dc.date.available2021-02-15T17:56:29Z
dc.date.issued2021
dc.description.abstractWildfre susceptibility and hazard models based on drivers that change only on a multiyear timescale are considered of a structural nature. They ignore specifc short-term conditions in any year and period within the year, especially summer, when most wildfre damage occurs in southern Europe. We investigate whether the predictive capacity of structural wildfre susceptibility and hazard models can be improved by integrating a seasonal dimension, expressed by three variables with yearly to seasonal timescales: (1) a meteorological index rating fuel fammability at the onset of summer; (2) the scarcity of fuel associated with the burned areas of the previous year, and (3) the excessive abundance of fuel in especially fre-prone areas that have not been burned in the previous ten years. We describe a new methodology for combining the structural maps with the seasonal variables, producing year-specifc seasonal susceptibility and hazard maps. We then compare the structural and seasonal maps as to their capacity to predict burnt areas during the summer period in a set of eight independent years. The seasonal maps revealed a higher predictive capacity in 75% of the validation period, both for susceptibility and hazard, when only the highest class was considered. This percentage was reduced to 50% when the two highest classes were considered together. In some years, structural factors and other unconsidered variables probably exert a strong infuence over the spatial pattern of wildfre incidence. These fndings can complement existing structural data and improve the mapping tools used to defne wildfre prevention and mitigation actions.pt_PT
dc.description.versioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionpt_PT
dc.identifier.citationBergonse, R., Oliveira, S., Gonçalves, A., & Nunes, S. (2021). A combined structural and seasonal approach to assess wildfire susceptibility and hazard in summertime. Natural Hazards, 106, 2545–2573. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-021-04554-7pt_PT
dc.identifier.doi10.1007/s11069-021-04554-7pt_PT
dc.identifier.eissn0921-030X
dc.identifier.issn1573-0840
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10451/46346
dc.language.isoengpt_PT
dc.peerreviewedyespt_PT
dc.publisherSpringerpt_PT
dc.relationPeople&Fire: Reducing Risk, Living with Risk
dc.relationCentre of Geographical Studies
dc.relationCentre of Geographical Studies
dc.relation.publisherversionhttps://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11069-021-04554-7pt_PT
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/pt_PT
dc.subjectWildfre susceptibilitypt_PT
dc.subjectHazard assessmentpt_PT
dc.subjectStructural approachpt_PT
dc.subjectSeasonal variablespt_PT
dc.subjectPortugalpt_PT
dc.titleA combined structural and seasonal approach to assess wildfire susceptibility and hazard in summertimept_PT
dc.typejournal article
dspace.entity.typePublication
oaire.awardTitlePeople&Fire: Reducing Risk, Living with Risk
oaire.awardTitleCentre of Geographical Studies
oaire.awardTitleCentre of Geographical Studies
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT/3599-PPCDT/PCIF%2FAGT%2F0136%2F2017/PT
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT/6817 - DCRRNI ID/UIDB%2F00295%2F2020/PT
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT/6817 - DCRRNI ID/UIDP%2F00295%2F2020/PT
oaire.citation.endPage2573
oaire.citation.startPage2545
oaire.citation.titleNatural Hazardspt_PT
oaire.citation.volume106
oaire.fundingStream3599-PPCDT
oaire.fundingStream6817 - DCRRNI ID
oaire.fundingStream6817 - DCRRNI ID
person.familyNameBergonse
person.familyNameOliveira
person.familyNamedo Nascimento Gonçalves
person.familyNameZêzere
person.givenNameRafaello
person.givenNameSandra
person.givenNameAna Cristina
person.givenNameJosé Luís
person.identifierH-9956-2013
person.identifier.ciencia-id8A16-4976-FD63
person.identifier.ciencia-id391A-DCE3-00CD
person.identifier.ciencia-id511D-EE6B-47E3
person.identifier.orcid0000-0001-6709-0547
person.identifier.orcid0000-0002-6253-4353
person.identifier.orcid0000-0002-8857-2120
person.identifier.orcid0000-0002-3953-673X
person.identifier.ridAAK-5051-2020
person.identifier.scopus-author-id17435272900
person.identifier.scopus-author-id6507109389
project.funder.identifierhttp://doi.org/10.13039/501100001871
project.funder.identifierhttp://doi.org/10.13039/501100001871
project.funder.identifierhttp://doi.org/10.13039/501100001871
project.funder.nameFundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
project.funder.nameFundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
project.funder.nameFundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
rcaap.rightsopenAccesspt_PT
rcaap.typearticlept_PT
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