Centre of Geographical Studies

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Publications

Improving Estuarine Flood Risk Knowledge through Documentary Data Using Multiple Correspondence Analysis

Publication . Rilo, Ana; Tavares, Alexandre Oliveira; Freire, Paula; Zêzere, José Luís; Haigh, Ivan D.

Estuarine margins are usually heavily occupied areas that are commonly affected by compound flooding triggers originating from different sources (e.g., coastal, fluvial, and pluvial). Therefore, estuarine flood management remains a challenge due to the need to combine the distinct dimensions of flood triggers and damages. Past flood data are critical for improve our understanding of flood risks in these areas, while providing the basis for a preliminary flood risk assessment, as required by European Floods Directive. This paper presents a spin-off database of estuarine flood events built upon previously existing databases and a framework for working with qualitative past flood information using multiple correspondence analysis. The methodology is presented, with steps ranging from a spin-off database building process to information extraction techniques, and the statistical method used was further explored through the study of information acquired from the categories and their relation to the dimensions. This work enabled the extraction of the most relevant estuarine flood risk indicators and demonstrates the transversal importance of triggers, since they are of utmost importance for the characterization of estuarine flood risks. The results showed a relation between sets of triggers and damages that are related to estuarine margin land use, demonstrating their ability to inform flood risk management options. This work provides a consistent and coherent approach to use qualitative information on past floods, as a useful contribution in the context of scarce data, where measured and documentary data are not simultaneously available

2022Journal article

Open access

Economic costs of invasive alien species in the Mediterranean basin

Publication . Kourantidou, Melina; Cuthbert, Ross N.; Haubrock, Phillip J.; Novoa, Ana; Taylor, Nigel G.; Leroy, Boris; Capinha, César; Renault, David; Angulo, Elena; Diagne, Christophe; Courchamp, Franck

Invasive alien species (IAS) negatively impact the environment and undermine human well-being, often resulting in considerable economic costs. The Mediterranean basin is a culturally, socially and economically diverse region, harbouring many IAS that threaten economic and societal integrity in multiple ways. This paper is the first attempt to collectively quantify the reported economic costs of IAS in the Mediterranean basin, across a range of taxonomic, temporal and spatial descriptors. We identify correlates of costs from invasion damages and management expenditures among key socioeconomic variables, and determine network structures that link countries and invasive taxonomic groups. The total reported invasion costs in the Mediterranean basin amounted to $27.3 billion, or $3.6 billion when only realised costs were considered, and were found to have occurred over the last three decades. Our understanding of costs of invasions in the Mediterranean was largely limited to a few, primarily western European countries and to terrestrial ecosystems, despite the known presence of numerous high-impact aquatic invasive taxa. The vast majority of costs were attributed to damages or losses from invasions ($25.2 billion) and were mostly driven by France, Spain and to a lesser extent Italy and Libya, with significantly fewer costs attributed to management expenditure ($1.7 billion). Overall, invasion costs increased through time, with average annual costs between 1990 and 2017 estimated at $975.5 million. The lack of information from a large proportion of Mediterranean countries, reflected in the spatial and taxonomic connectivity analysis and the relationship of costs with socioeconomic variables, highlights the limits of the available data and the research effort needed to improve a collective understanding of the different facets of the costs of biological invasions. Our analysis of the reported costs associated with invasions in the Mediterranean sheds light on key knowledge gaps and provides a baseline for a Mediterranean-centric approach towards building policies and designing coordinated responses. In turn, these could help reach socially desirable outcomes and efficient use of resources invested in invasive species research and management.

2021Journal article

Open access

Agricultural land systems : modelling past, present and future regional dynamics

Publication . Viana, Cláudia M.; Rocha, Fernando Jorge Pedro da Silva Pinto da; Freire, Maria Dulce Alves; Abrantes, Patrícia Catarina dos Reis Macedo

This thesis arises from the understanding of how the integration of concepts, tools, techniques, and methods from geographic information science (GIS) can provide a formalised knowledge base for agricultural land systems in response to future agricultural and food system challenges. To that end, this thesis focuses on understanding the potential application of GIS-based approaches and available spatial data sources for modelling regional agricultural land-use and production dynamics in Portugal. The specific objectives of this thesis are addressed in seven chapters in Parts II through V, each corresponding to one scientific article that was either published or is being considered for publication in peer-reviewed international scientific journals. In Part II, Chapter 2 summarises the body of knowledge and provides the context for the contribution of this thesis within the scientific domain of agricultural land systems. In Part III, Chapters 3 and 4 explore remotely sensed and Volunteered Geographic Information (VGI) data, multitemporal and multisensory approaches, and a variety of statistical methods for mapping, quantifying, and assessing regional agricultural land dynamics in the Beja district. In Part IV, Chapters 5–7 explore the CA-Markov model, Markov chain model, machine learning, and model-agnostic approach, as well as a set of spatial metrics and statistical methods for modelling the factors and spatiotemporal changes of agricultural land use in the Beja district. In Part V, Chapter 8 explores an area-weighting GIS-based technique, a spatiotemporal data cube, and statistical methods to model the spatial distribution across time for regional agricultural production in Portugal. The case studies in the thesis contribute practical and theoretical knowledge by demonstrating the strengths and limitations of several GIS-based approaches. Together, the case studies demonstrate the underlying principles that underpin each approach in a way that allows us to infer their potentiality and appropriateness for modelling regional agricultural land-use and production dynamics, stimulating further research along this line. Generally, this thesis partly reflects the state-of-art of land-use modelling and contribute significantly to the introduction of advances in agricultural system modelling research and land-system science.

2022-02Doctoral thesis

Open access