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Promoting low-risk fire regimes: an agent-based model to explore wildfire mitigation policy options

2023-03Journal article Open access
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dc.contributor.authorRibeiro, Paulo Flores
dc.contributor.authorMoreira, Francisco
dc.contributor.authorCanadas, Maria João
dc.contributor.authorNovais, Ana
dc.contributor.authorLeal, Miguel
dc.contributor.authorOliveira, Sandra
dc.contributor.authorBergonse, Rafaello
dc.contributor.authorZêzere, José Luís
dc.contributor.authorSantos, José Lima
dc.date.accessioned2024-03-05T19:36:45Z
dc.date.available2024-03-05T19:36:45Z
dc.date.issued2023-03
dc.description.abstractLandscape patterns and composition were identified as key drivers of fire risk and fire regimes. However, few studies have focused on effective policymaking aimed at encouraging landowners to diversify the landscape and make it more fire-resilient. We propose a new framework to support the design of wildfire mitigation policies aimed at promoting low-risk fire regimes based on land use/land cover choices by landowners. Using the parishes of a fire-prone region in central Portugal as analysis units, a two-step modelling approach is proposed, coupling an agent-based model that simulates land use/land cover choice and a logistic model that predicts fire regimes from a set of biophysical variables reported as important fire regime drivers in the literature. The cost-effectiveness of different policy options aimed at promoting low-risk fire regimes at the parish level is assessed. Our results are in line with those of previous studies defending the importance of promoting landscape heterogeneity by reducing forest concentration and increasing agricultural or shrubland areas as a measure to reduce the risk of wildfire. Results also suggest the usefulness of the framework as a policy simulation tool, allowing policymakers to investigate how annual payments supporting agricultural or shrubland areas, depending on the policy mix, can be very cost-effective in removing a substantial number of parishes from high-risk fire regimes.pt_PT
dc.description.versioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionpt_PT
dc.identifier.citationRibeiro, P.F.; Moreira, F.; Canadas, M.J.; Novais, A.; Leal, M.; Oliveira, S.; Bergonse, R.; Zêzere, J.L.; Santos, J.L. Promoting low-risk fire regimes: an agent-based model to explore wildfire mitigation policy options. Fire 2023, 6, 102.pt_PT
dc.identifier.doi10.3390/fire6030102pt_PT
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/30282
dc.language.isoengpt_PT
dc.peerreviewedyespt_PT
dc.publisherMDPIpt_PT
dc.relationPeople&Fire: Reducing Risk, Living with Risk
dc.relationForest Research Centre
dc.relationCentre of Geographical Studies
dc.relationCentre of Geographical Studies
dc.relationBridging gaps for wildfire risk reduction in Southern Europe: integrating future territorial and climatic changes in mitigation approaches
dc.relation.publisherversionhttps://www.mdpi.com/journal/firept_PT
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/pt_PT
dc.subjectwildfire mitigationpt_PT
dc.subjectwildfire policypt_PT
dc.subjectfire regimept_PT
dc.subjectagent-based modellingpt_PT
dc.subjectland cover choicept_PT
dc.subjectfire resiliencept_PT
dc.titlePromoting low-risk fire regimes: an agent-based model to explore wildfire mitigation policy optionspt_PT
dc.typejournal article
dspace.entity.typePublication
oaire.awardTitlePeople&Fire: Reducing Risk, Living with Risk
oaire.awardTitleForest Research Centre
oaire.awardTitleCentre of Geographical Studies
oaire.awardTitleCentre of Geographical Studies
oaire.awardTitleBridging gaps for wildfire risk reduction in Southern Europe: integrating future territorial and climatic changes in mitigation approaches
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT/3599-PPCDT/PCIF%2FAGT%2F0136%2F2017/PT
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT/6817 - DCRRNI ID/UIDB%2F00239%2F2020/PT
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT/6817 - DCRRNI ID/UIDB%2F00295%2F2020/PT
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT/6817 - DCRRNI ID/UIDP%2F00295%2F2020/PT
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT/6817 - DCRRNI ID/IF%2F01053%2F2015%2FCP1278%2FCT0001/PT
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT/CEEC IND 3ed/2020.03873.CEECIND%2FCP1614%2FCT0002/PT
oaire.citation.issue3pt_PT
oaire.citation.startPageArticle number 102pt_PT
oaire.citation.titleFirept_PT
oaire.citation.volume6pt_PT
oaire.fundingStream3599-PPCDT
oaire.fundingStream6817 - DCRRNI ID
oaire.fundingStream6817 - DCRRNI ID
oaire.fundingStream6817 - DCRRNI ID
oaire.fundingStream6817 - DCRRNI ID
oaire.fundingStreamCEEC IND 3ed
person.familyNameMoreira
person.familyNamePrudêncio Rafael Canadas
person.familyNameNovais
person.familyNameOsório de Barros de Lima e Santos
person.givenNameFrancisco
person.givenNameMaria João
person.givenNameAna
person.givenNameJosé Manuel
person.identifier.ciencia-id5212-8AF1-5206
person.identifier.ciencia-id7F15-74A1-39AF
person.identifier.ciencia-id8B19-47C0-84E0
person.identifier.ciencia-idC51F-D73C-62A7
person.identifier.orcid0000-0003-4393-8018
person.identifier.orcid0000-0002-6995-0763
person.identifier.orcid0000-0003-2317-6677
person.identifier.ridB-2873-2008
person.identifier.scopus-author-id55266517400
person.identifier.scopus-author-id35316212100
project.funder.identifierhttp://doi.org/10.13039/501100001871
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project.funder.nameFundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
project.funder.nameFundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
project.funder.nameFundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
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project.funder.nameFundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
project.funder.nameFundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
rcaap.rightsopenAccesspt_PT
rcaap.typearticlept_PT
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