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- Embolia pulmonar em Portugal : epidemiologia e mortalidade intra-hospitalarPublication . Gouveia, Miguel; Pinheiro, Luís; Costa, João; Borges, MargaridaIntroduction: In Portugal, the epidemiology of acute pulmonary embolism is poorly understood. In this study, we sought to characterize the pulmonary embolism from the hospital data and evaluate its in-hospital mortality and respective prognostic factors. Material and Methods: The study used diagnostic related groups data from National Health System hospitals from 2003 to 2013 and National Statistics Institute population data to establish the evolution of admissions with the diagnosis of pulmonary embolism, their in hospital mortality rates and the population incidence rates. Diagnosis-related group microdata were used in a logit regression modeling in-hospital mortality as a function of individual characteristics and context variables. Results: Between 2003 and 2013 there were 35,200 episodes of hospitalization in patients with 18 or more years in which one of the diagnoses was pulmonary embolism (primary diagnosis in 67% of cases). The estimated incidence rate in 2013 was 35/100,000 population (≥ 18 years). Between 2003 and 2013, the annual number of episodes kept increasing, but the in-hospital mortality rate decreased (from 31.8% to 17% for all cases and from 25% to 11.2% when pulmonary embolism was the main diagnosis). The probability of death decreases when there is a computerized tomography scan registry or when patients are females and increases with age and the presence of co-morbidities. Discussion: In the last decade there was an increased incidence of pulmonary embolism likely related to an increased number of dependents and bedridden. However, there was a in-hospital mortality reduction of such size that the actual mortality in the general population was reduced. One possible explanation is that there has been an increase in episodes of pulmonary embolism with incrementally lower levels of severity, due to the greater capacity of diagnosis of less severe cases. Another possible explanation is greater effectiveness of hospital care. According to the logistic regression analysis, improvements in hospital care effectiveness in recent years are primarily responsible for the mortality reduction. Conclusion: About 79% of the reduction of in-hospital mortality of pulmonary embolism between 2003 and 2013 can be attributed to greater effectiveness of hospital care and the rest to the favorable change in patient characteristics associated with risk of death.
- The current and future burden of heart failure in PortugalPublication . Gouveia, Miguel; Ascenção, Raquel; Fiorentino, Francesca; Costa, João; Caldeira, Daniel; Broeiro-Gonçalves, Paula; Fonseca, Candida; Borges, MargaridaAIMS: Heart failure (HF) is a clinical syndrome with significant social and economic burden. We aimed to estimate the burden of HF in mainland Portugal over a 22-year time horizon, between 2014 and 2036. METHODS AND RESULTS: Heart failure burden was measured in disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), resulting from the sum of years of life lost (YLL) due to premature death and years lost due to disability (YLD). YLL were estimated based on the Portuguese mortality rates reported by the European Detailed Mortality Database. For YLD, disease duration and the overall incidence were estimated using an epidemiological model developed by the World Health Organization (DISMOD II). Disability weights were retrieved from published literature. The impact of ageing was estimated with a shift-share analysis using official demographic projections. In 2014, 4688 deaths were attributed to HF, corresponding to 4.7% of the total deaths in mainland Portugal. DALYs totalled 21 162, 53.9% due to premature death (YLL: 11 398) and 46.1% due to disability (YLD: 9765). Considering only population ageing over a 22-year horizon, the deaths and burden of HF are expected to increase by 73.0% and 27.9%, respectively, reaching 8112 deaths and 27 059 DALYs lost due to HF in 2036. DALY's growth is mainly driven by the increase of YLL, whose contribution to overall burden will increase to 62.0%. CONCLUSIONS: Heart failure is an emerging and growing health problem where significant health gains may be obtained. The projected significant increase of HF burden highlights the need to set HF as a priority for healthcare system.
- Estudo de custo-efectividade do aliscireno no tratamento da hipertensão em doentes com diabetes tipo 2 e nefropatia em PortugalPublication . Gouveia, Miguel; Borges, Margarida; Costa, João; Pinheiro, Luís; Vaz Carneiro, AntónioObjectives: aliskiren is a direct human renin inhibitor that is efficacious in the treatment of high blood pressure in patients with diabetes mellitus type 2 and nephropathy. The purpose of this study is to provide an economic evaluation of aliskiren in a social perspective. We estimated the incremental cost-effectiveness of a therapeutical strategy based on aliskiren and losartan versus a strategy based on a losartan and placebo. The measures of effectiveness used were life expectancy, quality adjusted life years, and the incidence of end stage renal disease. Methods: the estimates of efficacy in clinical trials and other studies were extrapolated for a 20 years time horizon by using Markov chains with six month length cycles. We estimated the direct costs of the alternative strategies in the context of Portuguese clinical practice, including costs with aliskiren, losartan, other drugs, tests, doctor visits, and the costs of renal transplants. We also estimated indirect costs due to absenteeism and premature retirement from the labor market. Results: In the baseline case the strategy with aliskiren always dominates the placebo strategy, with mean costs inferior by €552,32 and superior effectiveness. The dominance result was robust to plausible variations in the time horizon, the management costs for patients with hypertension and type 2 diabetes and the transplant costs. The result was also robust to using different discount rates and to the non inclusion of indirect costs in the analysis. In a pessimistic alternative scenario with lower aliskiren efficacy in the initial cycle the incremental cost utility was €7246 per QALY ganied. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis shows that aliskiren is dominant witha 56,8% probability and that for willingnesses to pay between €20 000 and 30 000€ the probability aliskirenis cost-effective goes from 72,3% up to 76,6%. Conclusions: In the context of the Portuguese health system, the use of aliskiren is cost-effective. Thus aliskiren is a valuable addition to the therapeutic arsenal for the treatment of patients with diabetes mellitus type 2, high blood pressure and nephropathy.
- O custo e a carga da esquizofrenia em Portugal em 2015Publication . Gouveia, Miguel; Ascenção, Raquel; Fiorentino, Francesca; Pascoal, João; Costa, João; Borges, MargaridaIntrodução: A esquizofrenia é uma importante causa de incapacidade e consumo de recursos económicos. Neste estudo pretendemos estimar os custos e a carga da esquizofrenia para 2015 em Portugal Continental. Métodos: A carga da doença foi medida pelos anos de vida ajustados pela incapacidade (DALY- Disability-adjusted life years), uma métrica adotada pela Organização Mundial de Saúde. O custo da doença foi estimado com base na prevalência adotando a perspetiva global da sociedade. Os custos incluíram os consumos de recursos e os custos indiretos dos doentes e cuidadores (perdas de produtividade). As principais fontes de informação de custos foram: a base de dados GDH; os contratos programa; dados de consumo de medicamentos e opinião de peritos. Resultados: A prevalência da esquizofrenia será cerca de 48 mil doentes, sendo que o número de doentes seguidos pelo sistema de saúde (público e privado) deverá estar na ordem dos 41 mil doentes. Em 2015, estima-se que se tenham perdido 28.588 DALY (84% por incapacidade; 16% por mortalidade prematura). A preços de 2015, o total estimado de custos diretos e indiretos da esquizofrenia foi respetivamente de € 96,1 e € 340,3 milhões (97% gerados pelos doentes). Conclusão: A esquizofrenia tem um importante impacto social em Portugal devido essencialmente à morbilidade gerada, podendo-se-lhe atribuir em 2015 um custo total de € 436,3 milhões, cerca de 0,24% do produto interno bruto. Os custos diretos representam 0,6 % de todas as despesas de saúde em 2015, enquanto a totalidade dos custos (diretos e indiretos) representam 2,7% da despesa em saúde.
- Burden of disease and cost of illness of atrial fibrillation in PortugalPublication . Gouveia, Miguel; Costa, João; Alarcão, Joana; Augusto, Margarida; Caldeira, Daniel; Pinheiro, Luís; Carneiro, António Vaz; Borges, MargaridaIntroduction and Objectives: Atrial fibrillation is the most prevalent sustained arrhythmia. This paper estimates the burden and cost of illness attributable to atrial fibrillation in Portugal based on demographic and health statistics. Methods: Mortality data by cause of death came from the European Detailed Mortality Database of the World Health Organization (WHO). Hospital data were taken from the Portuguese diagnosis-related groups database. The burden of disease was measured using DALYs (disability-adjusted life years), a metric adopted by the WHO. Costs studied included resource use and lost productivity. The burden and cost of illness are those attributable to atrial fibrillation and its main complication, ischemic stroke. Results: In Portugal, 4070 deaths were attributable to atrial fibrillation in 2010, corresponding to 3.8% of all deaths. In total, the burden of disease attributable to atrial fibrillation was estimated at 23 084 DALYs: 10 521 resulting from premature deaths (1.7% of the total DALYs due to death in 2010 in Portugal), and 12 563 resulting from disability. The total estimated direct costs attributable to atrial fibrillation at 2013 prices were 115 MD (million euros): 34 MD for inpatient care and 81 MD for outpatient care. Indirect costs resulting from lost production due to disability were estimated at 25 MD. Conclusions: Atrial fibrillation has an important social impact in Portugal due to its associated mortality and morbidity, and was responsible in 2013 for a total cost of 140 MD , about 0.08% of gross domestic product.
- Indicadores (outcomes) primários e secundários em ensaios clínicos oncológicos : definição e usosPublication . Carneiro, António Vaz; Luz, Ricardo; Borges, Margarida; Costa, JoãoIntroduction: The proof of efficacy from a therapeutic intervention in oncology must be defined through well conducted clinical trials. One of the most important methodological issue is the outcome selection needed to calculate measures of association allowing definition of clinical efficacy. Material and Methods: We designed a narrative revision based on some of the international regulatory instructions from drug agencies, as well as consensus papers from scientific oncology societies, listing and critically assessing each outcome used in oncology clinical trials. Results: We identified as being the most important outcomes in oncology trials the overall survival, the progression free survival/disease-free survival, the toxicity, the quality of life/patient-reported outcomes and the objective response rate. Discussion: The selection of the primary outcome must be based on therapeutic efficacy as well as toxicity, expected survival, alternative drug regimens and even disease prevalence. Conclusion: The selection of efficacy outcomes for clinical trials in oncology is very important and its selection must be well justified, and depends on the type of disease, the patients and the drug being studied.
- Carga da doença atribuível ao tabagismo em PortugalPublication . Borges, Margarida; Gouveia, Miguel; Costa, João; Pinheiro, Luís dos Santos; Paulo, Sérgio; Carneiro, António VazThe World Health Organization's (WHO) 2002 Annual Report estimated that about 14% of the burden of disease in wealthier countries is attributable to smoking. Smoking related diseases include cardiovascular diseases, cancer and respiratory diseases. This paper presents an estimate of the burden of disease attributable to smoking in Portugal. The estimates are based on the Portuguese demographic and health statistics available for 2005. The most important conclusion of the analysis is that 11.7% of deaths in Portugal are attributable to smoking. If we use disability adjusted life years (DALYs) to measure the burden of disease, we find that 11.2% of death DALYs in Portugal is attributable to smoking. The gender distribution of this amount is very unequal; 15.4% of the male burden of disease and 17.7% of all male deaths can be attributed to smoking, but only 4.9% of the female burden of disease and 5.2% of all female deaths. These estimates are higher than death estimates previously available (Peto et al. 2006); 14% in men and only 0.9% in women. This paper also presents estimates of the burden of reducible disease, that is, the reduction in mortality and DALYs that would occur if all current smokers quit and thus experienced the mean risk of ex-smokers, which is lower than for current smokers but typically not as low as for never-smokers. Our estimates are that the burden of disease would decrease by 5.8% (7.8% in men and 2.8% in women), and that deaths would decrease by 5.8% as well (with an 8.5% and 2.9% decrease in men and women, respectively). The paper also includes estimates of the burden of disease generated by smoking related disability. Smoking related illnesses generated 121,643 DALYs, 72,126 (59%) of which are attributable to smoking and 12,417 would be reducible if all smokers were to quit.
- Efficacy of lipid lowering drug treatment for diabetic and non-diabetic patients : meta-analysis of randomised controlled trialsPublication . Costa, João; Borges, Margarida; David, Cláudio; Carneiro, António VazObjective: To evaluate the clinical benefit of lipid lowering drug treatment in patients with and without diabetes mellitus, for primary and secondary prevention. Design: Systematic review and meta-analysis. Data sources: Cochrane, Medline, Embase, and reference lists up to April 2004. Study selection: Randomised, placebo controlled, double blind trials with a follow-up of at least three years that evaluated lipid lowering drug treatment in patients with and without diabetes mellitus. Data extraction: Two independent reviewers extracted data. The primary outcome was major coronary events defined as coronary heart disease death, non-fatal myocardial infarction, or myocardial revascularisation procedures. Results: Twelve studies were included. Lipid lowering drug treatment was found to be at least as effective in diabetic patients as in non-diabetic patients. In primary prevention, the risk reduction for major coronary events was 21% (95% confidence interval 11% to 30%; P < 0.0001) in diabetic patients and 23% (12% to 33%; P = 0.0003) in non-diabetic patients. In secondary prevention, the corresponding risk reductions were 21% (10% to 31%; P = 0.0005) and 23% (19% to 26%; P . 0.00001). However, the absolute risk difference was three times higher in secondary prevention. When results were adjusted for baseline risk, diabetic patients benefited more in both primary and secondary prevention. Blood lipids were reduced to a similar degree in both groups. Conclusions The evidence that lipid lowering drug treatment (especially statins) significantly reduce cardiovascular risk in diabetic and non-diabetic patients is strong and suggests that diabetic patients benefit more, in both primary and secondary prevention. Future research should define the threshold for treatment of these patients and the desired target lipid concentrations, especially for primary prevention.
- Cost and burden of non-small cell lung cancer's in PortugalPublication . Borges, Margarida; Gouveia, Miguel; Alarcão, Joana; Sousa, Rita; Teixeira, E.; Barata, F.; Laranjeira, E.; Lopes, F.; Parente, B.; Pinheiro, L.; Carneiro, António Vaz; Costa, JoãoObjectives: This study estimates the impact of Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) on population health levels and its economic impact in Portugal in 2012.
- Custos da doença atribuíveis à hipercolesterolémia em PortugalPublication . Gouveia, Miguel; Borges, Margarida; Costa, João; Oliveira, Eduardo Infante de; David, Cláudio; Carneiro, António VazCardiovascular diseases are the main cause of death in Portugal, in developed countries and, indeed, worldwide. Hypercholesterolemia is a major risk factor for these diseases, including ischemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, and peripheral vascular disease. This paper reports the results of a study of the cost of illness associated with hypercholesterolemia and the costs directly attributable to hypercholesterolemia in Portugal, estimated from data for the year 2000. The results indicate that the cost of the health care provided to deal with illnesses associated with hypercholesterolemia was Euros 735.9 million (direct costs) and the costs of lost production due to disability of patients of working age was Euros 74.82 million (indirect costs). The costs attributable to hypercholesterolemia, those that would be avoided if hypercholesterolemia were completely eliminated, amount to Euros 358.84 million in direct costs and Euros 28.31 million in indirect costs. These results confirm that hypercholesterolemia is a source of major health costs. This means that hypercholesterolemia deserves special attention from those who formulate health policy and should be given priority in implementing such policies.
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