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- Drivers of future alien species impacts: an expert‐based assessmentPublication . Essl, Franz; Lenzner, Bernd; Bacher, Sven; Bailey, Sarah; Capinha, César; Daehler, Curtis; Dullinger, Stefan; Genovesi, Piero; Hui, Cang; Hulme, Philip E.; Jeschke, Jonathan M.; Katsanevakis, Stelios; Kühn, Ingolf; Leung, Brian; Liebhold, Andrew; Liu, Chunlong; MacIsaac, Hugh J.; Meyerson, Laura A.; Nuñez, Martin A.; Pauchard, Aníbal; Pyšek, Petr; Rabitsch, Wolfgang; Richardson, David M.; Roy, Helen E.; Ruiz, Gregory M.; Russell, James C.; Sanders, Nathan J.; Sax, Dov F.; Scalera, Riccardo; Seebens, Hanno; Springborn, Michael; Turbelin, Anna; Kleunen, Mark; Holle, Betsy; Winter, Marten; Zenni, Rafael D.; Mattsson, Brady J.; Roura‐Pascual, NuriaUnderstanding the likely future impacts of biological invasions is crucial yet highly challenging given the multiple relevant environmental, socio-economic and societal contexts and drivers. In the absence of quantitative models, methods based on expert knowledge are the best option for assessing future invasion trajectories. Here, we present an expert assessment of the drivers of potential alien species impacts under contrasting scenarios and socioecological contexts through the mid-21st century. Based on responses from 36 experts in biological invasions, moderate (20%-30%) increases in invasions, compared to the current conditions, are expected to cause major impacts on biodiversity in most socioecological contexts. Three main drivers of biological invasions-transport, climate change and socio-economic change-were predicted to significantly affect future impacts of alien species on biodiversity even under a best-case scenario. Other drivers (e.g. human demography and migration in tropical and subtropical regions) were also of high importance in specific global contexts (e.g. for individual taxonomic groups or biomes). We show that some best-case scenarios can substantially reduce potential future impacts of biological invasions. However, rapid and comprehensive actions are necessary to use this potential and achieve the goals of the Post-2020 Framework of the Convention on Biological Diversity.
- Biogeography and global flows of 100 major alien fungal and fungus‐like oomycete pathogensPublication . Schertler, Anna; Lenzner, Bernd; Dullinger, Stefan; Moser, Dietmar; Bufford, Jennifer L.; Ghelardini, Luisa; Santini, Alberto; Capinha, César; Monteiro, Miguel; Reino, Luís; Wingfield, Michael J.; Seebens, Hanno; Thines, Marco; Dawson, Wayne; van Kleunen, Mark; Kreft, Holger; Pergl, Jan; Pyšek, Petr; Weigelt, Patrick; Winter, Marten; Essl, FranzAim: Spreading infectious diseases associated with introduced pathogens can have devastating effects on native biota and human livelihoods. We analyse the global distribution of 100 major alien fungal and oomycete pathogens with substantial socio-economic and environmental impacts and examine their taxonomy, ecological characteristics, temporal accumulation trajectories, regional hot- and coldspots of taxon richness and taxon flows between continents. Location: Global. Taxon: Alien/cryptogenic fungi and fungus-like oomycetes, pathogenic to plants or animals. Methods: To identify over/underrepresented classes and phyla, we performed Chi2 tests of independence. To describe spatial patterns, we calculated the region-wise richness and identified hot- and coldspots, defined as residuals after correcting taxon richness for region area and sampling effort via a quasi-Poisson regression. We examined the relationship with environmental and socio-economic drivers with a multiple linear regression and evaluated a potential island effect. Regional first records were pooled over 20-year periods, and for global flows the links between the native range to the alien regions were mapped. Results: Peronosporomycetes (Oomycota) were overrepresented among taxa and regional taxon richness was positively correlated with area and sampling effort. While no island effect was found, likely due to host limitations, hotspots were correlated with human modification of terrestrial land, per capita gross domestic product, temperate and tropical forest biomes, and orobiomes. Regional first records have increased steeply in recent decades. While Europe and Northern America were major recipients, about half of the taxa originate from Asia.Main Conclusions: We highlight the putative importance of anthropogenic drivers, such as land use providing a conducive environment, contact opportunities and susceptible hosts, as well as economic wealth likely increasing colonisation pressure. While most taxa were associated with socio-economic impacts, possibly partly due to a bias in research focus, about a third show substantial impacts to both socio-economy and the environment, underscoring the importance of maintaining a wholescale perspective across natural and managed systems.
- Projecting the continental accumulation of alien species through to 2050Publication . Seebens, Hanno; Bacher, Sven; Blackburn, Tim M.; Capinha, César; Dawson, Wayne; Dullinger, Stefan; Genovesi, Piero; Hulme, Philip E.; Kleunen, Mark; Kühn, Ingolf; Jeschke, Jonathan M.; Lenzner, Bernd; Liebhold, Andrew M.; Pattison, Zarah; Pergl, Jan; Pyšek, Petr; Winter, Marten; Essl, FranzBiological invasions have steadily increased over recent centuries. However, we still lack a clear expectation about future trends in alien species numbers. In particular, we do not know whether alien species will continue to accumulate in regional floras and faunas, or whether the pace of accumulation will decrease due to the depletion of native source pools. Here, we apply a new model to simulate future numbers of alien species based on estimated sizes of source pools and dynamics of historical invasions, assuming a continuation of processes in the future as observed in the past (a business-as-usual scenario). We first validated performance of different model versions by conducting a back-casting approach, therefore fitting the model to alien species numbers until 1950 and validating predictions on trends from 1950 to 2005. In a second step, we selected the best performing model that provided the most robust predictions to project trajectories of alien species numbers until 2050. Altogether, this resulted in 3,790 stochastic simulation runs for 38 taxon-continent combinations. We provide the first quantitative projections of future trajectories of alien species numbers for seven major taxonomic groups in eight continents, accounting for variation in sampling intensity and uncertainty in projections. Overall, established alien species numbers per continent were predicted to increase from 2005 to 2050 by 36%. Particularly, strong increases were projected for Europe in absolute (+2,543 ± 237 alien species) and relative terms, followed by Temperate Asia (+1,597 ± 197), Northern America (1,484 ± 74) and Southern America (1,391 ± 258). Among individual taxonomic groups, especially strong increases were projected for invertebrates globally. Declining (but still positive) rates were projected only for Australasia. Our projections provide a first baseline for the assessment of future developments of biological invasions, which will help to inform policies to contain the spread of alien species.
- Patterns and drivers of the global diversity of non‐native macrofungiPublication . Monteiro, Miguel; Reino, Luís; Ferreira, Maria Teresa; Essl, Franz; Schertler, Anna; Capinha, CésarAim: To uncover the biogeography of non-native macrofungal diversity worldwide, by analysing patterns and drivers of (1) regional variation in species richness, (2) compositional similarity between regional species assemblages and (3) the spatiotemporal trends of first records. Location: Global. Methods: We used a database providing 1608 distribution records of 554 non-native macrofungal species in 167 national and sub-national regions worldwide. Regression models accounting for regional levels of recording capacity were used to relate spatial variation of non-native macrofungal richness and of regional compositional similarities to variables representing geographical, socio-economic and biophysical characteristics of regions. Temporal trends of first records were assessed at the global and continental scales and for distinct ecofunctional groups. Results: Regions reporting higher diversity of non-native species occur mainly in Europe, the Americas and Oceania. Regression models showed that regions with greater gross domestic product per capita, areal extent and in the Southern Hemisphere have higher non-native species richness, while regions with similar mean temperatures and latitudinal position share higher compositional similarities. Numbers of first records of non-native macrofungi have grown quasi-exponentially between 1753 and 2018, reflecting not only improved recording capacities but also likely an increasing number of introductions.Main Conclusions: We find that many regions of the world already harbour a high diversity of non-native macrofungi, with economic, climatic and introduction pathwayrelated factors explaining a relevant portion of the geographical patterns formed by these taxa. Given that socio-economic activity has increased strongly in recent decades, the global anthropogenic redistribution of macrofungi is likely to intensify further in the near future.
- Introduction, spread, and impacts of invasive alien mammal species in EuropePublication . Tedeschi, Lisa; Biancolini, Dino; Capinha, César; Rondinini, Carlo; Essl, Franz1. Biological invasions have emerged as one of the main drivers of biodiversity change and decline, and numbers of species classed as alien in parts of their ranges are rapidly rising. The European Union established a dedicated regulation to limit the impacts of invasive alien species (IAS), which is focused on the species on a Union List of IAS of particular concern. However, no previous study has specifically addressed the ecology of invasive alien mammals included on the Union List. 2. We performed a systematic review of published literature on these species. We retrieved 262 publications dealing with 16 species, and we complemented these with the most up-to-date information extracted from global databases on IAS. 3. We show that most of the study species reached Europe as pets and then escaped from captivity or were intentionally released. On average each year in the period 1981–2020, 1.2 species were recorded for the first time as aliens in European countries, and most species are still expanding their alien ranges by colonising neighbouring territories. France is the most invaded nation, followed by Germany, Italy, and the Russian Federation, and the muskrat Ondatra zibethicus, the American mink Neovison vison, and the raccoon dog Nyctereutes procyonoides are the most widespread species, having invaded at least 27 countries each. Invasive mammals of European Union concern are threatening native biodiversity and human well-being: worryingly, 81% of the 16 study species are implicated in the epidemiological cycle of zoonotic pathogens. 4. Containing secondary spread to further countries is of paramount importance to avoid the establishment of new populations of invasive mammals and the related impacts on native communities, ecosystem services, and human health. 5. We present a compendium on the ecology and impacts of invasive mammals of European Union concern. It can be used to assist environmental policies, identify and subsequently fill knowledge gaps, and inform stakeholders.
- What will the future bring for biological invasions on islands? An expert-based assessmentPublication . Lenzner, Bernd; Latombe, Guillaume; Capinha, César; Bellard, Céline; Courchamp, Franck; Diagne, Christophe; Dullinger, Stefan; Golivets, Marina; Irl, Severin D. H.; Kühn, Ingolf; Leung, Brian; Liu, Chunlong; Moser, Dietmar; Roura-Pascual, Núria; Seebens, Hanno; Turbelin, Anna; Weigelt, Patrick; Essl, FranzBiological invasions are a major threat to global biodiversity with particularly strong implications for island biodiversity. Much research has been dedicated towards understanding historic and current changes in alien species distribution and impacts on islands and potential changes under future climate change. However, projections of how alien species richness and impacts on islands might develop in the future are still lacking. In the absence of reliable projections, expert-based assessments are a valuable tool to investigate the importance of different drivers and pathways and the distributions of potential impacts of future biological invasions. These insights can guide subsequent quantification efforts and inform invasive species management and policy. In this study, we performed a survey among 126 experts in invasion science ranging from scientists to managers and decision makers with a focus on island systems until the mid-21st century. The survey revealed that out of 15 drivers, six were considered important by almost all respondents (>90%). Of these, trade and transport was identified as most important at the introduction stage (99.2%) and land use/cover change as most important at the establishment (96.8%) and spread (95.2%) stage. Additionally, the experts considered that alien species were more likely to be introduced (93.7%) and spread (78.6%) as stowaways than through any other pathway. In general, respondents agreed that the impacts of alien species will increase on all types of islands, particularly on oceanic islands, followed by atolls and continental islands. Within islands, terrestrial ecosystems were assumed to be impacted more severely than marine ecosystems. Finally, the survey hints toward the potential for effective communication, scientific research and increased pro-active management of alien species on islands to reduce their future consequences. Given the major threat represented by invasive alien species on islands, these results provide crucial insights relevant for global and regional conservation efforts.
- Distribution of alien tetrapods in the Iberian PeninsulaPublication . Ascensão, Fernando; D'Amico, Marcello; Martins, Ricardo C.; Rebelo, Rui; Barbosa, A. Márcia; Bencatel, Joana; Barrientos, Rafael; Abellán, Pedro; Tella, José L.; Cardador, Laura; Anadón, José D.; Carrete, Martina; Murgui, Enrique; Fernandes, Pedro; Santos, Sara M.; Mira, António; da Luz Mathias, Maria; Tiago, Patrícia; Casabella, Eduardo; Reino, Luís; Paulo, Octávio S.; Pereira, Henrique M.; Capinha, CésarWe present a dataset that assembles occurrence records of alien tetrapods (amphibians, reptiles, birds and mammals) in the Iberian Peninsula, a coherent biogeographically unit where introductions of alien species have occurred for millennia. These data have important potential applications for ecological research and management, including the assessment of invasion risks, formulation of preventive and management plans, and research at the biological community level on alien species. This dataset summarizes inventories and data sources on the taxonomy and distribution of alien tetrapods in the Iberia Peninsula, comprising known locations from published literature, expert knowledge and citizen science platforms. An expertbased assessment process allowed the identification of unreliable records (misclassification or natural dispersion from native range), and the classification of species according to their status of reproduction in the wild. Distributional data was harmonized into a common area unit, the 10 × 10 km Universal Transverse Mercator (UTM) system (n = 6,152 cells). The year of observation and/or year of publication were also assigned to the records. In total, we assembled 35,940 unique distribution records (UTM × species × Year) for 253 species (6 amphibians, 16 reptiles, 218 birds and 13 mammals), spanning between 1912 and 2020. The species with highest number of distribution records were the Mediterranean painted frog Discoglossus pictus (n = 59 UTM), the pond slider Trachemys scripta (n = 471), the common waxbill Estrilda astrild (n = 1,275) and the house mouse Mus musculus (n = 4,043), for amphibians, reptiles, birds and mammals, respectively. Most alien species recorded are native to Africa (33%), followed by South America (21%), Asia (19%), North America (12%) and Oceania (10%). Thirty-six species are classified by IUCN as threatened in their native range, namely 2 Critically Endangered (CR), 6 Endangered (EN), 8 Vulnerable (VU), and 20 species Near Threatened (NT). Species maps are provided in DataSet1, as well R code and GIS layers to update them as new records are obtained.
- The economic costs of biological invasions in Central and South America: a first regional assessmentPublication . Heringer, Gustavo; Angulo, Elena; Ballesteros-Mejia, Liliana; Capinha, César; Courchamp, Franck; Diagne, Christophe; Duboscq-Carra, Virginia Gisela; Nuñez, Martín Andrés; Zenni, Rafael DudequeInvasive alien species are responsible for a high economic impact on many sectors worldwide. Nevertheless, there is a scarcity of studies assessing these impacts in Central and South America. Investigating costs of invasions is important to motivate and guide policy responses by increasing stakeholders’ awareness and identifying action priorities. Here, we used the InvaCost database to investigate (i) the geographical pattern of biological invasion costs across the region; (ii) the monetary expenditure across taxa and impacted sectors; and (iii) the taxa responsible for more than 50% of the costs (hyper-costly taxa) per impacted sector and type of costs. The total of reliable and observed costs reported for biological invasions in Central and South America was USD 102.5 billion between 1975 and 2020, but about 90% of the total costs were reported for only three countries (Brazil, Argentina and Colombia). Costs per species were associated with geographical regions (i.e., South America, Central America and Islands) and with the area of the countries in km2. Most of the expenses were associated with damage costs (97.8%), whereas multiple sectors (77.4%), agriculture (15%) and public and social welfare (4.2%) were the most impacted sectors. Aedes spp. was the hyper-costly taxon for the terrestrial environment (costs of USD 25 billion) and water hyacinth (Eichhornia crassipes) was the hyper-costly taxon for the aquatic environment (USD 179.9 million). Six taxa were classified as hyper-costly for at least one impacted sector and two taxa for at least one type of cost. In conclusion, invasive alien species caused billions of dollars of economic burden in Central and South America, mainly in large countries of South America. Costs caused by invasive alien species were unevenly distributed across countries, impacted sectors, types of costs and taxa (hyper-costly taxa). These results suggest that impacted sectors should drive efforts to manage the species that are draining financial sources.
- A horizon scan exercise for aquatic invasive alien species in Iberian inland watersPublication . Oficialdegui, Francisco J.; Zamora-Marín, José M.; Guareschi, Simone; Anastácio, Pedro M.; García-Murillo, Pablo; Ribeiro, Filipe; Miranda, Rafael; Cobo, Fernando; Gallardo, Belinda; García-Berthou, Emili; Boix, Dani; Arias, Andrés; Cuesta, Jose A.; Medina, Leopoldo; Almeida, David; Banha, Filipe; Barca, Sandra; Biurrun, Idoia; Cabezas, M. Pilar; Calero, Sara; Campos, Juan A.; Capdevila-Argüelles, Laura; Capinha, César; Casals, Frederic; Clavero, Miguel; Encarnação, João; Fernández-Delgado, Carlos; Franco, Javier; Guillén, Antonio; Hermoso, Virgilio; Machordom, Annie; Martelo, Joana; Mellado-Díaz, Andrés; Morcillo, Felipe; Oscoz, Javier; Perdices, Anabel; Pou-Rovira, Quim; Rodríguez-Merino, Argantonio; Ros, Macarena; Ruiz-Navarro, Ana; Sánchez, Marta I.; Sánchez-Fernández, David; Sánchez-González, Jorge R.; Sánchez-Gullón, Enrique; Teodósio, M. Alexandra; Torralva, Mar; Vieira-Lanero, Rufino; Oliva-Paterna, Francisco J.As the number of introduced species keeps increasing unabatedly, identifying and prioritising current and potential Invasive Alien Species (IAS) has become essential to manage them. Horizon Scanning (HS), defined as an exploration of potential threats, is considered a fundamental component of IAS management. By combining scientific knowledge on taxa with expert opinion, we identified the most relevant aquatic IAS in the Iberian Peninsula, i.e., those with the greatest geographic extent (or probability of introduction), severe ecological, economic and human health impacts, greatest difficulty and acceptability of management. We highlighted the 126 most relevant IAS already present in Iberian inland waters (i.e., Concern list) and 89 with a high probability of being introduced in the near future (i.e., Alert list), of which 24 and 10 IAS, respectively, were considered as a management priority after receiving the highest scores in the expert assessment (i.e., top-ranked IAS). In both lists, aquatic IAS belonging to the four thematic groups (plants, freshwater invertebrates, estuarine invertebrates, and vertebrates) were identified as having been introduced through various pathways from different regions of the world and classified according to their main functional feeding groups. Also, the latest update of the list of IAS of Union concern pursuant to Regulation (EU) No 1143/2014 includes only 12 top-ranked IAS identified for the Iberian Peninsula, while the national lists incorporate the vast majority of them. This fact underlines the great importance of taxa prioritisation exercises at biogeographical scales as a step prior to risk analyses and their inclusion in national lists. This HS provides a robust assessment and a cost-effective strategy for decision-makers and stakeholders to prioritise the use of limited resources for IAS prevention and management. Although applied at a transnational level in a European biodiversity hotspot, this approach is designed for potential application at any geographical or administrative scale, including the continental one.
- Negative and positive impacts of alien macrofungi: a global scale databasePublication . Monteiro, Miguel; Capinha, César; Ferreira, Maria Teresa; Nuñez, Martin A.; Reino, LuísAdvances in ecological research during the last decades have led to an improved understanding of the impacts of alien species. Despite that, the effects of alien macrofungi have often received little attention and are still poorly understood. With the aim of reducing this knowledge gap, we compiled a database of the recorded socio-economic and environmental impacts of alien macrofungi. This database was compiled from all relevant sources we could identify, through an exhaustive literature review, considering the identity of known alien taxa and explicit indications of impacts of any kind. In total, 1440 records of both negative and positive impacts were collected for 374 distinct species in different regions of all continents, except Antarctica. The most frequently recorded impacts are related to the mutualistic interactions that these fungi can form with their host plants. In total 47.8% of all records refer to the indirect negative effect of these interactions, by facilitating the colonization of invasive plants, while 38.5% refer to their positive contribution to the growth of forestry species. Less frequently recorded negative impacts included ectomycorrhizal interactions with native plants, plant pathogenicity and human poisoning after ingestion. Additional positive impacts include the use as a food source by native species and human populations and commercial exploitation. Alien macrofungi are an increasingly prevalent component of human-dominated ecosystems, having a diverse array of negative and positive impacts on native biota and human population. Our database provided a first step towards the quantification and mapping of these impacts.