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What will the future bring for biological invasions on islands? An expert-based assessment
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Orientador(es)
Resumo(s)
Biological invasions are a major threat to global biodiversity with particularly strong
implications for island biodiversity. Much research has been dedicated towards
understanding historic and current changes in alien species distribution and impacts
on islands and potential changes under future climate change. However, projections
of how alien species richness and impacts on islands might develop in the future
are still lacking. In the absence of reliable projections, expert-based assessments are
a valuable tool to investigate the importance of different drivers and pathways and
the distributions of potential impacts of future biological invasions. These insights can
guide subsequent quantification efforts and inform invasive species management and
policy. In this study, we performed a survey among 126 experts in invasion science
ranging from scientists to managers and decision makers with a focus on island
systems until the mid-21st century. The survey revealed that out of 15 drivers, six were
considered important by almost all respondents (>90%). Of these, trade and transport
was identified as most important at the introduction stage (99.2%) and land use/cover
change as most important at the establishment (96.8%) and spread (95.2%) stage.
Additionally, the experts considered that alien species were more likely to be introduced
(93.7%) and spread (78.6%) as stowaways than through any other pathway. In general,
respondents agreed that the impacts of alien species will increase on all types of
islands, particularly on oceanic islands, followed by atolls and continental islands. Within
islands, terrestrial ecosystems were assumed to be impacted more severely than marine
ecosystems. Finally, the survey hints toward the potential for effective communication, scientific research and increased pro-active management of alien species on islands to
reduce their future consequences. Given the major threat represented by invasive alien
species on islands, these results provide crucial insights relevant for global and regional
conservation efforts.
Descrição
Palavras-chave
Biodiversity change Biological invasions Drivers Islands Expert-based approach Plausible futures Scenarios Survey
Contexto Educativo
Citação
Lenzner, B., Latombe, G., Capinha, C., Bellard, C., Courchamp, F., Diagne, C., ... & Leung, B. (2020). What will the future bring for biological invasions on islands? An expert-based assessment. Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution, 8, 280. https://doi.org/10.3389/fevo.2020.00280.
Editora
Frontiers Media