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  • The unconventional monetary policy of the ECB and the international economic and financial crisis: effectiveness versus exhaustion
    Publication . Mendonça, António
    On 10 March 2016 the ECB took the historic decision to reduce the interest rate on the main refinancing operations of the Euro system by five basis points to 0 %. In line with this, it reduced the rate on the marginal lending facility to 0.25 % (previously 0.3 %) and the rate on permanent deposit facility by ten basis points, to 0.4 %. This opened a new phase of unconventional monetary policy use. In this essay we will discuss the issue of the effectiveness versus the exhaustion of monetary policy followed by the ECB in response to the Eurozone effects of global economic and financial crisis. We firstly discuss the nature and justifications for the use of unconventional policy measures in the context of the crisis developments. We concentrate, in particular, on two central issues to understand the limits of monetary policy effectiveness, the so-called liquidity trap and the endogeneity versus exogeneity issue of money creation. Secondly, we provide some additional considerations on the relationship between the decreasing effectiveness of monetary policy and the increasing use of unconventional measures, seeking also to understand the differences between the stances of the ECB and the US Fed. Finally, we discuss the contradictions between the fiscal and monetary policies stances as a booster factor in exhausting the effect of the monetary policy, and conclude by affirming the absolute need to reform the Euro system
  • China in Angola: just a passion for oil?
    Publication . Ferreira, Manuel Ennes
    This chapter seeks to provide a multi-layered analysis of Chinese-Angolan relations and the role of China in Angola today. The first section outlines the principal characteristics of bilateral economic relations with a focus on external trade, foreign direct investment and the proliferation of public works made possible by the opening of Chinese credit lines. Over the past three years, this emphasis on public works has turned Angola into a veritable building site with the potential to transform the infrastructure that is indispensable for national development. While mostly concerned with a description of the Chinese presence, this section places it within the context of Angolan politics and brings out the domestic implications of what is defined as a ‘perfect marriage’ of convenience for Angolan elites and Chinese investors alike. The second section raises important questions regarding the long-term nature of Angolan-Chinese relations. Through examination of the likely economic, political and social developments in Angola, future challenges concerning the reception and consolidation of a Chinese presence in the country are discussed.
  • Sobre a participação de Portugal na União Europeia e o Mundo lusófono como espaço económico
    Publication . Mendonça, António
    A comunicação de Francisco Torres propõe-se fazer uma análise e também um balanço da participação de Portugal no processo de União Económica e Monetária na Europa. E uma comunicação muito interessante, bem estruturada e que exprime, com clareza, uma linha de pensamento e uma tomada de posição nem sempre concordantes com as opções que, sucessivamente, foram sendo tomadas e que acabaram por conduzir Portugal ao grupo da frente do euro, juntamente com a Alemanha, a França, a Itália, a Espanha, a Holanda, a Bélgica, o Luxemburgo, a Áustria, a Finlândia e a Irlanda. Dividirei este meu comentário em duas partes. Numa primeira, farei algumas observações sobre a comunicação, propriamente dita. Tendo em conta as naturais limitações de tempo e espaço, concentrar-me-ei em três ideias fundamentais que me parecem condensar a posição do autor sobre o processo que levou à substituição do escudo pelo euro, a nova moeda portuguesa. Uma substituição de moeda que, no caso da experiência recente do Brasil, se tornou um fenómeno recorrente, mas que, no caso de Portugal, tem sido rara. O real, criado em 1435) foi a moeda portuguesa durante quase 500 anos, tendo sido substituído pelo escudo em 1911, na proporção de 1/1000. De então para cá, até à criação do euro em 1 de Janeiro de 1999, não se verificou qualquer alteração. Agora, o escudo mais não é do que a roupa interna do euro, na razão de 1 euro para 200,482 escudos, até que a roupa definitiva esteja pronta em 1 de janeiro de 2002. Numa segunda parte deste meu comentário, e tendo em conta a razão de ser deste Encontro, aproveitaria o balanço para formular algumas ideias sobre o modo como as relações Portugal-Brasil poderão ser perspectivadas no quadro actual das suas inserções regionais e das tendências mais gerais de globalização.
  • O euro a União Européia e a América Latina
    Publication . Mendonça, António
    A introdução do euro em 1 0 de janeiro de 1999 foi o culminar de um longo processo de integração monetária na Europa que se desenrolou, praticamente, ao longo de toda a segunda metade do século XX. Paradoxalmente, a chegada do euro realizou-se, no entanto, num contexto em que os princípios e as referências que deram forma ao projeto mais vasto de integração económica e política européia parecem ter entrado num processo de esgotamento, sem que, entretanto, se tenha perspectivado no horizonte uma alternativa suficientemente forte para permitir, não apenas potenciar todos os efeitos positivos da existência de uma moeda única na Europa, mas também avançar de forma segura para novos patamares de integração. O recente alargamento a mais dez países, majoritariamente do centro e do leste da Europa, decidido sob pressão, sem que se tenha garantido a extensão e a consolidação da nova zona monetária a 15, e sem que se tenha produzido qualquer acordo relativamente a uma atualização dos objetivos e da arquitetura jurídica e institucional da União Européia, só veio agravar esta situação. De uma só vez, ampliaram-se substancialmente as assimetrias económicas e sociais da zona, alterou-se o centro geográfico e político da idéia de integração européia, ao mesmo tempo que se favoreceram as condições para um aumento das divergências, relativamente ao posicionamento da União Européia no mundo e às modalidades de evolução para níveis superiores de integração política. Com este trabalho propomo-nos discutir um duplo conjunto de questões. Por um lado, pretendemos fazer um balanço do processo de unificação monetária com vista a situar a sua importância no contexto mais geral da integração económica na Europa e avaliar o seu papel no desencadeamento da situação de crise atual. Por outro lado, pretendemos desenhar, a partir da análise das dinâmicas observáveis, os cenários possíveis de evolução do processo de integração na Europa e as suas consequências em termos do posicionamento estratégico da União Européia face às tendências mais gerais de integração económica global que hoje se manifestam. Ainda neste âmbito pretendemos discutir as modalidades de relacionamento entre a União Européia e a América latina e o papel que este relacionamento poderá jogar na criação de novos patamares de integração à escala global.
  • "Comment on Gabriel Felbermayr and Wilhelm Kohler "
    Publication . Silva, Joaquim Ramos
    The present paper is a very substantial enhancement of the earlier version . It is more focused on the central point, using theoretical representative cases , for example, of the levels of skillied labor (high, medium, and low) or of small and large economies. In spite of the theoretical emphasis, empirical foundations and historical trends have not been forgotten. In addition, an effort has been made to link the theoretical approach to immigration to the major theorems of international economics, particularly those concerning trade and specialization as they relate to factors (specific-factors theory of the Ricardo-Viner type versus the Heckscher-Ohlin model). Indeed, even if we could accept that we are dealing with a phenomenon that is rather different from trade, the in-depth study of immigration requires that it must be compared with other international flows in a comprehensive way. Other improvements could also be mentioned here but the paper has mainly gained in clarity and precision , and I am sure it will be a useful instrument for researchers
  • The triple helix model: evidence in the internationalization of the health industry
    Publication . Magrinho, André; Neves, Joana; Silva, Joaquim Ramos
    The chapter focuses on the role of the Triple Helix model that binds companies/business associations with the universities/research centers and the government at different levels, which has been widely used for policy purposes. This work examines the internationalization process of firms within the context of global value chains, and the study case is the Health Cluster of Portugal. The authors show that the recourse to the model is relevant to understand this industry, most notably in the regional context. However, on the basis of the case study, not all aspects of the relationships within the model attain the same level of satisfaction. It is concluded that the model enables the associated firms to more easily absorb the impact of the 4th Industrial Revolution but important challenges remain in the advance of this process.
  • Best regional practices for digital transformation in industry: The case of the industry 4.0 program in Portugal
    Publication . Santa Rita, Luciana Peixoto; Silva, Joaquim Ramos; Junior, Reynaldo Rubem Ferreira
    The Portuguese government, through its program for Industry 4.0, Portugal I4.0, has been supporting projects aimed at the digital transformation of the economy by mobilizing European funds and governmental subsidies from the Portugal 2020 Program. The objective of this study is to analyze the best regional practices for digital transformation in the industry 4.0 in this context. The following research questions arise: which are the best practices for digital transformation in Portugal under this Program and what was the impact on the competitiveness of Portuguese industries after the implementation of these technologies through the Incentive Value from 2017 to 2019? The methodological approach is correlational, and it establishes a relationship between the I4.0 Incentive Value and Competitiveness in order to identify the best regional practices for digital trans-formation in the Portuguese industry. The hypothesis of this study is accepted for the period 2017–2019, since the factors that make up the industry 4.0—European Fund—Incentive Value dimension are associated to the degree of competitive-ness, which was measured by a set of related variables. Further studies are necessary for longer periods and with a broader scope, the result shows the relevance of the Program
  • Economic growth theory, fifty years after
    Publication . Brito, Paulo
    Fifty year have passed since Solow’s [21] paper on economic growth theory has been published. With a non-specialized reader in mind, we present the main ensuing phases of the theory and the way our own research relates to it. The history of growth theory is conventionally divided into two phases: until early 1970’s, the research is labeled exogenous growth theory, and, starting in late 1980’s until the present, the new growth or endogenous growth theory is being developed. We present the main models of both theories, the stylized facts of growth and a broad view on their compliance of theory with them. At last, we report some avenues that we have been exploring, as well as their motivation and results. This research addresses the topics: existence of multiple BGP’s, indeterminacy, non-monotonous transitions and an exploration on the integration of spatial and growth theories using PDE’s.
  • From Sunspots to Black Holes: singular dynamics in macroeconomic models
    Publication . Brito, Paulo; Costa, Luis F.; Dixon, Huw
    We present conditions for the emergence of singularities in DGE models. We distinguish between slow-fast and impasse singularity types, review geometrical methods to deal with both types of singularity and apply them to DGE dynamics. We find that impasse singularities can generate new types of DGE dynamics, in particular temporary determinacy/indeterminacy. We illustrate the different nature of the two types of singularities and apply our results to two simple models: the Benhabib and Farmer (1994) model and one with a cyclical fiscal policy rule
  • Success stories in traditional sectors of the Portuguese economy
    Publication . Coelho, Alfredo Manuel; Barata, José Monteiro; Nevado, Pedro Picaluga
    This paper focus on small and medium firms (SMES) success stories in the traditional sectors of the Portuguese economy. Our contribution aims to a better understanding of the relation between firms’ goals and organizational configurations. The empirical evidence is based on qualitative interviews with top managers of two Portuguese SMES in the footwear (Marisport) and water heater (Vulcano) industries. Results allow us to draw implications for organizational effectiveness (to review the research and political agenda) in similar emerging economies.