UECE - Artigos em Revistas Internacionais / Articles in International Journals
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- Patentes acadêmicas no Brasil: evolução, especialização tecnológica e implicações econômicasPublication . Pires, Edilson Araújo; Quintella, Cristina M.; Godinho, Manuel MiraO grau e o perfil de especialização tecnológica das organizações acadêmicas no Brasil, Portugal e EUA são analisados e comparados com os de seus países com base nas famílias de patentes entre 1999 e 2015, por meio de um conjunto de indicadores de desempenho e estrutura adequados. A produtividade aparente das organizações acadêmicas brasileiras em relação ao PIB é convergente com a dos EUA, mas em relação à população não é. Embora Portugal e o Brasil tenham dimensões econômicas e populacionais muito menores que os EUA, as respectivas universidades têm uma maior diversidade de campos tecnológicos que as universidades americanas. Nos últimos anos, as universidades mantiveram a tendência de se especializar em um número cada vez mais restrito de campos tecnológicos, principalmente em biotecnologia e produtos farmacêuticos e nos setores de química e instrumentos. Porém, as distâncias tecnológicas das universidades em relação aos seus países aumentaram nos últimos anos, e as organizações acadêmicas no Brasil e em Portugal, em comparação com os próprios países, convergiram para distâncias semelhantes às dos EUA.
- The Tech Cold War: What can we learn from the most dynamic patent classes?Publication . Godinho, Manuel Mira; Simões, Vítor CoradoThis research assesses key aspects of the Tech Cold War between the World’s two largest economies, the US and China. We focused on the patenting performance in four most dynamic patent classes at both the EPO and the USPTO in the period from 2000 to 2019. The data shows that China has had a very fast catching up in terms of patent counts, and was ranked no lower than #5 in all of those patent classes, in both the EPO and the USPTO in 2019. However, an assessment of patent quality shows that a significant gap still remains between the Chinese firms and their counterparts in the US and in other most developed economies. Despite that qualitative disadvantage, the patent data that was analysed also indicates that the quantitative catching up has to a reasonable extent been based on endogenous R&D effort and learning dynamics, a finding which is confirmed by the weak involvement of the major Chinese firms in patent co-ownership networks in the overviewed patent classes. In the now unlikely scenario of no significant changes in the global competitive environment, including in the WTO and TRIPS rules, China becoming the global technological leader before the end of the 2020s would have been a possibility with a reasonable likelihood. However, the political economy of the Tech Cold War has made difficult any linear extrapolation of recent trends.
- Determinants of citation impact : A comparative analysis of the Global South versus the Global NorthPublication . Confraria, Hugo; Godinho, Manuel Mira; Wang, LiliThe impact of the scientific output produced by different nations in different fields varies extensively. In this article, we apply bibliometric and econometric analysis to identify which countries are producing research with relatively higher scientific influence, and to understand what factors lead to higher citation impact. We focus specifically on the Global South because countries in this group are starting to converge in terms of output with the Global North. We find that previous citation impact, level of international collaboration and total publications in a specific scientific field are important determinants of citation impact among all nations. Yet, specialisation in particular scientific fields seems significantly more important in the Global South than in the Global North. We propose possible explanations for the patterns found and derive some policy implications.
- The ex-dividend day stock price behavior: the case of PortugalPublication . Borges, Maria RosaThis paper examines the ex-dividend day behavior of stock prices in the Lisbon Stock Market over the period 1990–1998, extending on international evidence and discussing the adequacy of competing theories, considering the Portuguese institutional environment. We find that on the ex-day stock prices fall by less than the dividend, which is in line with the findings of several studies based on US and non-US data. The main contributions of this paper are: (1) the rejection of a tax explanation for the stock price drop, because it is inconsistent with the Portuguese tax regime; (2) considering the very small stock price tick and the fact that dividends are always integer multiples of tick size, the discreteness hypothesis of Bali and Hite (Journal of Financial Economics 47(2):127–159, 1998) is also ruled out as a possible explanation for ex-day price movements. We find no evidence of tax related clientele effects. We propose that ex-day price behavior may be an anomaly, reflecting a less than efficient market with low liquidity levels, price stickiness, and insipid arbitrage trading
- Binary interest rate sensitivities of emerging market corporate bondsPublication . Gubareva, Mariya; Borges, Maria RosaWe develop a framework to assess interest rate sensitivities of emerging market corpo rate debt. Our analysis, based on yield indexes, is applied to investment grade and high yield portfolios. We reach beyond correlation-based analyses of interest rate sensitivity and keep our scope centered at capital gains of emerging market corporates and U.S. government bonds portfolios. Our empirical analysis spans over the period 2002–2015. We address interest rate sensitivity of assets during the ignition, apogee, and the after math of the global financial crisis. Based on historical data series, we evidence that the emerging market corporate bonds exhibit two different regimes of sensitivity to inter est rate changes. We observe switching from a positive sensitivity under the normal market conditions to a negative one during distressed phases of business cycles and provide economical explanations of such phenomena. We show that emerging mar ket corporate bonds, which on average could appear rather insensitive to the interest rate risk, in fact, present binary interest rate sensitivities. This research sheds light on how financial institutions may approach interest rate risk management including the downside risk hedge. Our findings allow banks and financial institutions to optimize economic capital under Basel III regulatory capital rules
- Underpricing of initial public offerings: the case of PortugalPublication . Borges, Maria RosaThis paper analyzes the initial public offering (IPO) underpricing phenomenon in Portugal. We show that the ‘hot issue’ market of 1987, coinciding with a speculative bubble in the stock market, is well explained by investor sentiment theories and that the issuing firms seized a ‘window of opportunity’ provided by excessive demand to offer and list their shares. In IPOs prior to the 1987 crash, underpricing is very high while there is a strong reversion to fundamentals in the long run. In the period 1988–2004, we find lower IPO underpricing and overall no evidence of long-run underperformance of IPO firms. Bookbuilding IPOs are more underpriced than other price setting systems IPOs, and firms with seasoned public offerings show abnormal returns in the long run.
- Evaluating the efficiency and productivity of insurance companies with a Malmquist index: a case study for PortugalPublication . Barros, Carlos; Barroso, Maria Nazaré; Borges, Maria RosaThis paper estimates changes in total productivity, breaking this down into technically efficient change and technological change by means of data envelopment analysis applied to a representative sample of insurance companies operating in the Portuguese market. The aim of this procedure is to seek out those best practices that will lead to improved performance in the market. We rank the companies according to their change in total productivity for the period 1995–2001, concluding that some companies experienced productivity growth while others experienced a decrease in productivity. The implications arising from the study are considered in terms of managerial policy.
- A theory of the relationship between foreign direct investment and tradePublication . Pontes, José PedroAlthough empirical evidence shows that the relationship between foreign direct investment (FDI) and trade is complex, theories of international investment (both vertical and horizontal) present simple patterns of relation. By allowing for different locations of vertically−related stages of production and distinguishing between trade in finished goods and trade in intermediate goods, this paper introduces a nonmonotonic relationship between multinational firms and trade costs, which must be neither too high nor too low for FDI to arise. Exports and FDI behave as complements for high level of trade costs and as substitutes otherwise.
- Housing and endogenous long-term growthPublication . Brito, Paulo; Pereira, Alfredo M.In this paper, we develop an endogenous growth model where housing plays a role as a consumption and an investment good for households, as an input to production, and as a production sector. We show that the long-term endogenous growth rate for the economy, while not affected by housing-related preference parameters, depends critically on housing-related production parameters. The key modeling assumption is that housing and other assets in the economy are not perfect substitutes. With this we can show that the endogenous long-term growth rate depends on the relative price of housing and other types of capital. Accordingly, the effects of productivity shocks on growth can be understood through their effects on the relative asset price and the corresponding changes in capital intensity. We show that productivity shocks to the three sectors of production, manufacturing, construction, and educational and training activities, have positive effects on long-term growth. For reasonable parameter values, however, the responsiveness of the long-term growth rate to shocks in construction is greater than responsiveness to shocks in manufacturing.
- Learning-by-consuming and the dynamics of the demand and prices of cultural goodsPublication . Brito, Paulo; Barros, CarlosThe major distinctive feature of cultural goods is that consumers must learn how to consume them, implying that preferences should be modelled as intertemporally dependent. The canonical model in the literature uses a habit formation analogy. In this paper, we discuss in detail, though in the simplest setup, a consistent preference structure for that model. Then, we derive the implications for the dynamics of two aggregate equilibrium models, a fixed price model and a flexible price model. The learning-by-consuming behaviour is characterised by a preference structure displaying bounded adjacent complementarity in the demand for the cultural good. This implies that there will be short run complementarity between the stocks of culture and financial wealth and that the adjustment of the demand for cultural goods, or of their relative price, will have some inertia. In the exogenous price model, we find that increases in income will raise the long run demand for cultural goods while increases in the relative price will decrease it. In the endogenous price model, an increase in the supply of cultural goods will imply an initial undershooting of the price of cultural goods followed by an upward transition process. Our results seem to be consistent with the empirical results on the demand for cultural goods and seem to offer an explanation for the Baumol and Bowen paradox.