REM - Artigos em Revistas Internacionais / Articles in International Journals
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- Are scientific memes inherited differently from gendered authorship?Publication . Araújo, Tanya; Fontaínha, ElsaThis paper seeks to build upon the previous literature on gender aspects in research collaboration and knowledge diffusion. Our approach adds the meme inheritance notion to traditional citation analysis, as we investigate if scientific memes are inherited differently from gendered authorship. Since authors of scientific papers inherit knowledge from their cited authors, once authorship is gendered we are able to characterize the inheritance process with respect to the frequencies of memes and their propagation scores depending on the gender of the authors. By applying methods that enable the gender disambiguation of authors, missing data on the gender of citing and cited authors is dealt with. Our empirically based approach allows for investigating the combined effect of meme inheritance and gendered transmission. Results show that scientific memes do not spread differently from either male or female cited authors. Likewise, the memes that we analyse were not found to propagate more easily via male or female inheritance.
- Assessing the sustainability of external imbalances in the European UnionPublication . Afonso, António; Huart, Florence; Jalles, João Tovar; Stanek, PiotrExternal imbalances are a greater source of concern than public deficits and debts in some countries of the European Union, given their size and evolution. The new macroeconomic imbalance procedure (MIP), which aims at preventing these imbalances, relies on the surveillance of macroeconomic indicators. Some thresholds have been defined for the current account balance and the net international investment position (NIIP), but not for the NED which is taken as an auxiliary indicator in the MIP scoreboard. Prompted by these thresholds, we carried out an analysis of external debt sustainability of EU countries.
- Chris Freeman forging the evolution of evolutionary economicsPublication . Louçã, FranciscoEvery Schumpeterian is an evolutionary economist in his or her own way. Chris Freeman, whose 1995 essay is published in this issue of ICC, favored a rare combination of the Cambridge tradition, a Marxian view of inequalities and Schumpeter’s fascination with innovation as the driving force of capitalism. The article summarizes and discusses this combination and how Freeman generated a challenging agenda for contemporary economics, namely in the context of long wave analysis, the theme for his last book.
- Decomposing and analysing the determinants of current accounts’ cyclicality: evidence from the Euro AreaPublication . Afonso, António; Jalles, João TovarIn this paper, we decompose the current account (CA) balance in 19 Euro area countries into cyclical and non-cyclical components. For the period 1999:Q1 to 2015:Q4, we compute income elasticities of imports and of exports via an alternative novel and improved approach by running time-varying coefficient models country-by-country. Then, in a panel set-up (and controlling for country-invariant characteristics), we uncover that terms of trade have a positive effect on both the cyclical and non-cyclical components of the CA, while the Global Financial Crisis, compensation of employees and the employment level have a negative effect on the cyclical component. Moreover, the crisis had a greater impact on the cyclical component of the CA due to movements in the real effective exchange rate. In addition, we find a negative effect of the crisis on the cyclical component of the CA for countries that received financial assistance from the European Union, notably Ireland, Portugal, Spain and Latvia.
- Do financial markets reward government spending efficiency?Publication . Afonso, António; Salles, João Tovar; Venâncio, AnaWe provide a novel set of government spending efficiency scores for the OECD countries and then assess to what extent capital markets perceive government efficiency increases (decreases) as part of the determinants of sovereign rating decisions. Public efficiency scores are computed via data envelopment analysis. Then, we rely notably on ordered response models to estimate the response of sovereign ratings to changes in efficiency scores. Covering 35 OECD countries over the period 2007–2020, we find that increased public spending efficiency is rewarded by financial markets via higher sovereign debt ratings. In addition, higher inflation and government indebtedness lead to sovereign rating downgrades, while higher foreign reserves contribute to rating upgrades.
- Does the introduction of stock exchange markets boost economic growth in African countries?Publication . Afonso, António; Reimers, MaxWe assess whether the introduction of private equity capital markets affects economic growth in African countries. We address this issue by focussing on stock exchange markets as the predominant type of new equity markets, using a Diff-in-Diff regression method. The analysis uses a panel data set from 48 Sub-Saharan countries over the time range of 1970–2018. 23 countries are part of the “treated” group – which introduced international stock exchanges – and 25 “untreated” countries serve as the control group. Our results show that when compared with the time period prior to the introduction of stock exchange markets, GDP per capita rises by the amount of 532 US$ (around 40% of the Sub-Saharan average) after the introduction of equity capital markets in the treated countries. Over the ten years post introduction, the effect is hump-shaped, with effects becoming statistically significant from the first year after implementation, with a peak in the 5th year, and it then becomes statistically insignificant from then onwards.
- Economic volatility and sovereign yields’ determinants: a time-varying approachPublication . Afonso, António; Jalles, João TovarUsing monthly data for 10 euro area countries between 1999:01 and 2015:12, we take a new three-step methodological approach: first, we inspect the key determinants of 10-year government bond yield spreads; second, we compute country-specific timevarying coefficient models of spreads’ determinants; third, we use these estimates as explanatory variables in panel regressions using output volatility as the dependent variable.We find that better fiscal positions or higher-than-expected economic growth prospects reduce the yield spreads,while increases in theVIX, bid-ask spread, debt-to- GDP ratio or real effective exchange rate appreciation increase the spreads.Moreover, the responsiveness of the yield spread determinants increased in the run-up to the global financial crisis. Finally, for the case of the budget balance and real growth (bid-ask spread, debt-to-GDP ratio, real effective exchange rate and VIX), the larger (higher) in absolute value the corresponding spread’s responsiveness, the lower (higher) the economic volatility.
- Effects of euro area monetary policy on institutional sectors: the case of PortugalPublication . Afonso, António; Silva, JorgeWe study the effects of the euro area monetary policy on the institutional sectors in Portugal during the period 2000:4 2015:4. Our results show that the single monetary policy affected some variables that are proxies for the funding of each institutional sector of the economy: general government, other monetary financial institutions, non-financial corporations, households and the external sector. The period of the economic and financial adjustment programme influenced all institutional sectors, and financial integration in the euro area had an effect on the funding for the economy: there was a reduction of long term public debt to GDP ratio, external funding to the Portuguese other monetary financial institutions, and new loans to households.
- Euro area sovereign yields and the power of unconventional monetary policyPublication . Afonso, António; Kazemi, MinaWe assess the determinants of long-term sovereign yield spreads, vis-à-vis Germany, using a panel of 10 Euro area countries over the period 1999.01–2016.07 notably regarding the ECB’s conventional and unconventional monetary policies. Our findings indicate that the international risk, the bid-ask spread and real effective exchange rate increased the 10-year sovereign bond yield spreads, while sovereign ratings’ improvements decreased the spreads. Moreover, Longer-term Refinancing Operations and the Securities Market Program decreased the yield spreads. The overall announcements of the unconventional policies also significantly decreased the yield spreads, notably in the periphery countries.
- Expansiveness and hyperbolicity in convex billiardsPublication . Bessa, Mário; Dias, José Lopes; Torres, Maria JoanaWe say that a convex planar billiard table B is C²-stably expansive on a fixed open subset U of the phase space if its billiard map fB is expansive on the maximal invariant set ΛB,U = .Ո n∈Z f n B(U), and this property holds under C²-perturbations of the billiard table. In this note we prove for such billiards that the closure of the set of periodic points of fB in ΛB,U is uniformly hyperbolic. In addition, we show that this property also holds for a generic choice among billiards which are expansive