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Equity research : Novo Nordish A/S
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A Novo Nordisk é uma empresa dinamarquesa líder em diabetes e obesidade, com receitas superiores a 290 mil milhões de DKK em 2024. O seu sucesso é impulsionado pelo desenvolvimento pioneiro de terapias GLP-1. A análise suporta uma recomendação de compra, com um preço alvo de 553.4 DKK por ação. Representa assim um potencial de valorização de 29.7% face ao preço atual de 426.6 DKK, associado a um perfil de risco médio e uma taxa de desconto de 6.4%. Os principais fatores que sustentam esta avaliação incluem a sua posição de mercado, protegida por patentes a médio prazo, que asseguram uma forte rendibilidade. A opcionalidade da sua pipeline de investigação, bem como o aumento da população de doentes, oferecem um potencial de crescimento significativo, posicionando a empresa como líder em mercados em expansão. No entanto, as dinâmicas regulatórias de preços, concorrência, risco de pipeline e a transição do CEO introduzem riscos ao crescimento futuro, o que pode explicar a recente volatilidade nas ações. Em linha com o potencial de valorização, esta volatilidade é vista como derivada do sentimento assimétirco do mercado, acreditando-se que este está a incorporar perdas de mercado e quedas de preços para além dos valores considerados razoáveis.
Novo Nordisk is a Danish global healthcare leader in diabetes care and obesity segments, generating revenues of over DKK 290 billion in 2024. The company’s success is driven by its pioneering development of GLP-1 therapies. Valuation analyses support a buy recommendation, with a fair target price of DKK 553.4 per share. This represents an upside of 29.7% from the current market price of DKK 426.6, paired with a medium risk profile and a discount rate of 6.4%. Key factors underpinning this valuation include Novo Nordisk’s market leading position, protected by patents in the medium term, which ensure strong profitability. Furthermore, its pipeline optionality as well as growing patient population across all segments offer significant growth potential, positioning the company as a leader in expanding markets. However, regulatory pricing dynamics, intensifying competition, pipeline risk and CEO transition introduce risks to future growth which may be the reason for the recent volatility in the stock price. In line with the upside obtained, the observed volatility is seen as being asymmetrically driven by sentiment as it is believed that the market is pricing in market share losses as well as pricing declines beyond values that are seen as reasonable.
Novo Nordisk is a Danish global healthcare leader in diabetes care and obesity segments, generating revenues of over DKK 290 billion in 2024. The company’s success is driven by its pioneering development of GLP-1 therapies. Valuation analyses support a buy recommendation, with a fair target price of DKK 553.4 per share. This represents an upside of 29.7% from the current market price of DKK 426.6, paired with a medium risk profile and a discount rate of 6.4%. Key factors underpinning this valuation include Novo Nordisk’s market leading position, protected by patents in the medium term, which ensure strong profitability. Furthermore, its pipeline optionality as well as growing patient population across all segments offer significant growth potential, positioning the company as a leader in expanding markets. However, regulatory pricing dynamics, intensifying competition, pipeline risk and CEO transition introduce risks to future growth which may be the reason for the recent volatility in the stock price. In line with the upside obtained, the observed volatility is seen as being asymmetrically driven by sentiment as it is believed that the market is pricing in market share losses as well as pricing declines beyond values that are seen as reasonable.
Descrição
Trabalho Final de Mestrado, Finance, ISEG, 2025.
Palavras-chave
Equity Research Big Pharma Novo Nordisk Discounted Cash Flow Free Cash Flow to Firm Avaliação de Empresas Indústria farmacêutica Novo Nordisk Fluxo de Caixa Descontado Fluxo de Caixa Livre para a Empresa