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- The relationship between macroeconomic rates of return of investment and the speed of convergence : panel data analysisPublication . Alves, José; Santos, MatildeWe analyse the impact of macroeconomic rates of return of investment on time-varying beta convergence coefficients. This paper aims to establish and empirically demonstrate a relationship between macroeconomic rates of return of investment and the speed of convergence of economies to their own steady state. First, we use the four different kinds of macroeconomic rates found in Afonso et al (2025), then we compute the time-varying beta convergence coefficients for two different time lags, one of ten years and another of five, all according to the approach of Schlicht (2021). Finally, we regress the betas on the macroeconomic rates of return, controlling for some variables. Our panel data set contains 16 OECD countries and spans the years starting in 1980 and ending in 2022. We conclude that the impact of the macroeconomic rates of return on the speed of convergence is mostly positive but differs in magnitude depending on which kind of macroeconomic rate of return and on which set of control variables accompanies the regression.
- What are the effects of macroeconomic rates of return of investment on wage share?Publication . Alves, José; Coelho, José Carlos; Moreira, BernardeteThis article assesses the potential effects of the macroeconomic rates of return of private and public investment on wage share for 16 OECD countries from 1980 to 2022. Using the macroeconomic rates of return of investments and the wage share at factor cost and at market price, it was possible to conclude that the first has a positive effect on the wage share. Moreover, the total factor productivity negatively affects the wage share when it comes to private investment, while its influence is positive in the case of public investment. The results were also analyzed according to whether countries presented the total factor productivity of capital above or below the average. This analysis highlights the inverse pattern of the human capital index on wage share, both with respect to the type of investment and to the capital productivity observed across countries.
- Drivers of new business creation in the OECD : the Role of Education and TaxationPublication . Afonso, António; Blanco-Arana, M. Carmen; CisnerosRuiz, Ana J.; Department of Economics; ISEG Research in Economics and ManagementThe main aim of this paper is to empirically assess the impact of education and tax revenue on fostering new business creation in the OECD countries. To this end, we employ fixed effects and random effects models using panel data from 2006 to 2022, incorporating alternative conditions. Results confirm that while education and the economic situation are key pillars in fostering new business creation, the role of tax revenue in supporting economic development – and, by extension, new business formation – is fundamental, even if non-linear, with a threshold of 30% of GDP. Tax revenue collected by governments provides essential funding for public goods and services such as infrastructure, education, and innovation support programs, all of which contribute to creating an environment where new businesses can emerge and thrive. Our findings remain robust under the GMM estimation.
- The macroeconomic effects of climate policy uncertainty : evidence from PortugalPublication . Morão, HugoThis study examines the macroeconomic impact of policy uncertainty in climate decisionmaking. It employs data mining to 23 Portuguese news sources to construct a novel monthly Climate Policy Uncertainty (CPU) series, which is then used in a Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) model to analysis its macroeconomic effects. These responses collectively reveal significant economic restructuring in response to climate policy uncertainty. The combination of reduced industrial production and increased unemployment suggests substantial supply-side adjustment costs during the transition. However, the positive stock market response indicates that financial markets view these changes as ultimately beneficial for certain sectors, particularly those aligned with environmental sustainability.
- Uncertainty in climate policy and energy industryPublication . Morão, HugoThis study looks at how the the climate policy uncertainty (CPU) shocks affect Portugal’s energy sector, specifically examining their effects on turnover, output prices, and labor market dynamics. The structural vector autoregression (SVAR) analysis shows that CPU shocks lead to a significant increase in domestic turnover. Output prices rise both at home and abroad, but foreign prices are more sensitive. The labor market shows a more nuanced reaction, hours worked marginally increase and wages remain unchanged. Furthermore, the study finds that CPU has been a key driver of historical variations in the energy sector, particularly during global policy events like COP26 and domestic policy changes like carbon or car tax changes. These findings establish CPU as significant driver in energy prices and underscore the importance of judicious climate policymaking.
- Fiscal regimes and sustainability : insights from post-war GermanyPublication . Afonso, António; Jablonowski, Joshua; Department of Economics; ISEG Research in Economics and ManagementThis paper investigates fiscal sustainability and the prevailing fiscal regime in the Federal Republic of Germany. Using annual data from 1950 to 2023, the long-term relationship between the primary balance and government debt is estimated using a single-equation error correction model (SECM). The results from this long-term analysis do not support the hypothesis of fiscal sustainability, and the SECM proves inconclusive in identifying a dominant fiscal regime, showing a statistically insignificant long-run coefficient and bidirectional Granger causality. Moreover, with the local projections method on quarterly data from 2002 to 2023, this impulse response analysis reveals a clear Money-Dominant (MD) regime. A discretionary positive shock to the primary balance leads to a significant a decrease in real government debt, a result consistent with the MD regime. These findings suggest that while Germany’s long-run fiscal framework is ambiguous, its policy dynamics in the 21st century have been characterised as sustainable fiscal practices.
- Integration of household heterogeneity in input-output modelling : a comprehensive literature reviewPublication . Marques, Tiago OliveiraSeveral studies highlight that standard Input-Output (IO) models do not accurately represent household consumption behaviour, namely due to the assumption of a representative household, which overlooks heterogeneity. This limitation affects, among other things, the estimation of induced effects, which are highly significant in economic impact analysis using IO methodology. This paper explores the importance of incorporating household heterogeneity into IO models and reviews methods for introducing such disaggregation. Demographic-Economic Extended IO Models are a common approach, with the Miyazawa and Batey–Madden models being particularly prominent. Alongside an analysis of these seminal models, the paper identifies recent developments and compares extended IO models with related frameworks that also incorporate household heterogeneity. It concludes that extended models not only enhance the realism of multipliers but also allow for the derivation of additional multipliers that reflect interactions between demographic and economic variables, making IO methodology a powerful analytical tool in suitable contexts.
- Corporate financing effects of the ECB’s CSPP : evidence from bond spreads and firm leveragePublication . Ferreira, Jorge BragaThis study evaluates the impact of the ECB’s Corporate Sector Purchase Programme (CSPP) on corporate bond spreads at issuance, as measured by Option-Adjusted Spreads (OAS), and on subsequent changes in firms' capital structures, as proxied by year-on-year changes in the debt ratio. Using a sample of 1,275 Eurozone corporate bonds issued between 2015:Q1 and 2018:Q4, we estimate a two-stage empirical model to evaluate. In the first stage, we find that the initial association between CSPP eligibility and lower spreads disappears once firm- and bond-level characteristics are controlled for, suggesting that observed differences reflect issuer and instrument features rather than programme eligibility. While the CSPP’s effect does not vary systematically by firm or bond characteristics, the results indicate broader market effects, likely driven by the programme’s signaling power and perceived credibility, which extended beyond the impact of direct bond purchases. In the second stage, we assess changes in leverage following the issuance of bonds. CSPP eligibility did not seem to affect the debt ratio in the issuance year. However, longer-maturity eligible bonds are associated with delayed increases in leverage, as firms expanded their debt ratios in the year following issuance. This pattern suggests that improved financing conditions under the programme may have encouraged firms to raise additional debt at a later stage.
- Green fiscal multipliers with different sovereign debt trajectories in EU countriesPublication . Afonso, António; Alves, José; Ferraro, Alessio; Monteiro, Sofia; Department of Economics; ISEG Research in Economics and Management; Lisbon School of Economics & ManagementThis paper estimates the fiscal multipliers of green public spending using a linear Bayesian Panel VAR and a Smooth Transition VAR framework, with quarterly data for the period 1995Q1–2022Q4 for EU member states. We group EU member states based on similarities in debt trajectories and green spending intensity, forming three regional aggregates: Southern Europe, Eastern Europe, and Northern Europe. Our results show that green spending multipliers on GDP are generally below one, but the response of private investment is significantly stronger — particularly in Southern and Eastern Europe. Multipliers tend to be larger in periods of high public debt, suggesting that green fiscal expansions may be more effective during downturns. Another key finding is that in response to green spending shocks, both long-term interest rates and public debt tend to decline—especially in high-debt regimes—indicating improved market expectations about fiscal sustainability. In contrast, when we estimate the effects of a shock to total public spending net of green spending, we find that both interest rates and debt increase. This suggests that economic agents perceive green spending more favorably than undifferentiated fiscal expansions, likely due to its role in mitigating climate risks, lowering long-term energy costs, and signaling credible long-term policy commitments.
- Legal design and EU lawmaking : feasibility, limits and opportunities within the ordinary legislative procedurePublication . Suárez, Angela María Serrano; Moutinho, Ana Correia; Lisbon School of Economics & ManagementIn recent years, Legal Design has emerged as a human-centered approach aimed at improving the accessibility, usability, and transparency of legal systems. While it has been widely applied in private law—particularly in contract design—its relevance and feasibility within public law and legislative processes remain underexplored. This dissertation examines whether and how Legal Design practices can be feasibly integrated into the European Union’s Ordinary Legislative Procedure (OLP), with particular attention to interinstitutional negotiations and citizen-facing stages of lawmaking. Drawing on a qualitative and conceptual methodology, the research combines a structured literature review with documentary analysis of EU legislative frameworks and semi-structured interviews with practitioners from the European Parliament and the UK Policy Lab. The study addresses two main research questions: whether Legal Design has lost momentum since its initial rise, and at which stages and through which instruments it could be meaningfully applied within the EU’s legislative process. The findings suggest that the perceived decline of Legal Design is misleading. Rather than disappearing, Legal Design has become embedded within broader practices of public-sector innovation, design for policy, and legal technology, often without being explicitly labeled as such. While significant institutional, legal, and political constraints limit its application to core legislative texts and treaty-level norms, the research identifies substantial opportunities in public consultations, soft law instruments, secondary legislation, and supporting documents used in trilogues negotiations. The dissertation concludes that Legal Design should not be understood as a stylistic or purely visual tool, but as a communicative and anticipatory approach capable of enhancing transparency, participation, and comprehension in EU lawmaking, particularly when cautiously combined with emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence