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O regime fiscal dos terrenos para construção e a crise habitacional
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O presente trabalho tem como objeto analisar a dinâmica entre o mercado de prédios novos para habitação e os terrenos para construção habitacional, procurando compreender em que medida este último poderá estar na origem da escassez habitacional sentida em Portugal. Pretende-se, para isso, avaliar se uma eventual redução da oferta ou valorização dos terrenos, poderá estar a condicionar o crescimento da oferta de habitação e a contribuir para o agravamento dos preços no setor. Paralelamente, analisa-se se o tempo médio necessário para transformar terrenos classificados como aptos para construção em edifícios habitacionais tem vindo a aumentar, procurando identificar eventuais bloqueios nos processos de produção habitacional. Para tal, analisou-se a evolução da quantidade e do valor dos prédios novos para habitação e dos terrenos para construção habitacional, tendo-se considerado, para estes últimos, o VPT, nos termos do CIMI, o valor declarado para efeitos de IMT, e, no caso dos prédios construídos, também as avaliações bancárias. Complementarmente, foram estudadas variáveis como a área bruta de construção, a área total do terreno, o tempo de conversão entre terreno para construção habitacional e prédio construído, e o rácio entre o valor tributável dos terrenos e o valor declarado dos imóveis edificados. A análise baseou-se, maioritariamente, em duas bases de dados disponibilizadas pelo INE: uma composta por dados de todas as avaliações do valor patrimonial de prédios urbanos para efeitos do IMI, realizadas entre 2010 e 2024, e outra resultante da junção entre dados do IMI e do IMT, relativa ao período de 2013 a 2022. Os resultados obtidos confirmam a existência de uma crise habitacional em Portugal, evidenciada pela redução do ritmo de construção e pela valorização contínua do mercado imobiliário. No entanto, ainda que se observe uma diminuição do número de terrenos para construção habitacional e um aumento do seu valor, os dados analisados não permitem concluir pela existência de uma escassez efetiva desses terrenos, nem tampouco que o seu valor constitua, isoladamente, um fator explicativo da atual crise habitacional.
This study aims to analyse the relationship between the market for new residential buildings and land for residential construction, with the goal of understanding whether the land plays a significant role in the ongoing housing shortage in Portugal. It seeks to assess whether a potential reduction in the supply or the increasing value of land, may be limiting the expansion of housing stock and contributing to rising market prices. In parallel, the research also investigates whether the average time required to convert land for residential construction into completed housing has been increasing, to identify possible delays or bottlenecks in the housing production process. To address these questions, the evolution of both the quantity and value of new residential buildings and land for residential construction was examined. For the latter, the analysis considered the VPT (Tax Asset Value, as defined in the Portuguese Municipal Property Tax Code – CIMI), the declared value for Property Transfer Tax (IMT) purposes, and, in the case of constructed buildings, bank appraisals. Additional variables were also studied, such as the gross building area, total land area, the conversion time from land classification to completed housing, and the ratio between the taxable value per square metre of land and that of constructed properties. The analysis was primarily based on two databases provided by INE (National Institute of Statistics): one consisting of data from all property tax assessments of urban buildings for IMI purposes, carried out between 2010 and 2024, and another resulting from the combination of IMI and IMT data for the period from 2013 to 2022. The findings confirm the existence of a housing crisis in Portugal, marked by a slowdown in construction activity and the continued appreciation of the real estate market. However, although a decrease in the number of land for construction and an increase in their value was observed, the data do not support the conclusion that there is a real shortage of land for housing, nor that its value alone is the main factor driving the current housing crisis.
This study aims to analyse the relationship between the market for new residential buildings and land for residential construction, with the goal of understanding whether the land plays a significant role in the ongoing housing shortage in Portugal. It seeks to assess whether a potential reduction in the supply or the increasing value of land, may be limiting the expansion of housing stock and contributing to rising market prices. In parallel, the research also investigates whether the average time required to convert land for residential construction into completed housing has been increasing, to identify possible delays or bottlenecks in the housing production process. To address these questions, the evolution of both the quantity and value of new residential buildings and land for residential construction was examined. For the latter, the analysis considered the VPT (Tax Asset Value, as defined in the Portuguese Municipal Property Tax Code – CIMI), the declared value for Property Transfer Tax (IMT) purposes, and, in the case of constructed buildings, bank appraisals. Additional variables were also studied, such as the gross building area, total land area, the conversion time from land classification to completed housing, and the ratio between the taxable value per square metre of land and that of constructed properties. The analysis was primarily based on two databases provided by INE (National Institute of Statistics): one consisting of data from all property tax assessments of urban buildings for IMI purposes, carried out between 2010 and 2024, and another resulting from the combination of IMI and IMT data for the period from 2013 to 2022. The findings confirm the existence of a housing crisis in Portugal, marked by a slowdown in construction activity and the continued appreciation of the real estate market. However, although a decrease in the number of land for construction and an increase in their value was observed, the data do not support the conclusion that there is a real shortage of land for housing, nor that its value alone is the main factor driving the current housing crisis.
Descrição
Trabalho Final de Mestrado, Contabilidade, Fiscalidade e Finanças Empresariais, ISEG, 2025
Palavras-chave
New Residential Buildings Housing Crisis Land for Residential Construction Property Tax (IMI) Property Transfer Tax (IMT) Prédios Novos para Habitação Crise na Habitação Terrenos para Construção Habitacional IMI IMT