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Análise da exposição sazonal a incêndios rurais e identificação de medidas de mitigação no concelho da Sertã
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Os incêndios rurais constituem um dos fenómenos perigosos mais relevantes no panorama português, tendo estes vindo a agravar-se com as alterações atualmente observadas nas dinâmicas climáticas, socioeconómicas, de uso e ocupação do solo (Oliveira et al., 2020). Torna-se assim fundamental, perceber como estes afetam as populações inseridas na interface urbano-rural, identificando as principais medidas a implementar de modo a amplificar a capacidade de resposta e reduzir o impacto dos mesmos. Para tal, foi realizada uma análise à escala da subseção da Base Geográfica de Referenciação da Informação (INE, 2021) e do aglomerado populacional no município da Sertã, determinando diferentes componentes do risco de incêndio: a exposição estrutural, através da proporção de áreas estruturalmente mais perigosas e elementos expostos; a vulnerabilidade, considerando a população dependente e população sazonal; e o risco, resultante da conjugação da exposição estrutural e da vulnerabilidade. Acresce a identificação e classificação dos locais de abrigo, segundo a sua aptidão e perigosidade em redor, e são apresentadas sugestões de abrigos capazes de colmatar as lacunas constatadas. Neste âmbito, são perspetivadas as condicionantes que envolvem uma possível evacuação pedestre da população do aglomerado populacional até ao abrigo mais próximo, analisados em diferentes ritmos (m/s), determinando constrangimentos temporais e de disponibilidade da rede viária para o efeito. Tendo por base a informação que define os aglomerados onde se obteve o maior risco (considerando a perigosidade nos 100 m e 500 m envolventes) e com uma perspetiva de evacuação mais desfavorável, são considerados os aglomerados críticos que se estabelecem como prioritários na atuação e resposta perante a ocorrência de incêndios rurais. Enquadram-se nesta realidade, e em todos os cenários analisados, mais de ¼ da totalidade dos 2763 aglomerados populacionais identificados no município da Sertã. Tendo em atenção as particularidades verificadas no município, são posteriormente identificadas medidas de mitigação e adaptação de possível implementação.
Rural fires are one of the most relevant dangerous phenomena in the Portuguese panorama, and these have been worsening with the changes perceived in the current climatic, socioeconomic and land use dynamics (Oliveira et al., 2020). It is therefore essential to understand how they affect the populations inserted in the wildland-urban interface, identifying the main measures to be implemented to amplify the response capacity and reduce their impact. To this end, an analysis was carried out at the scale of the subsection of the Geographic Information Reference Base (INE, 2021) and the settlements in the municipality of Sertã, determining the structural exposure, perceived through the proportion of the more structurally hazardous areas and exposed elements; vulnerability, integrated through the consideration of the dependent population and seasonal population; and the risk resulting from the combination of structural exposure and vulnerability. In addition, the identification and classification of shelter sites according to their suitability and hazardousness are presented, and suggestions of shelters that address the main structural deficiencies found are given. In this context, the constraints involving a possible pedestrian evacuation of the population from the settlements to the nearest shelter are perceived, being analyzed at different paces (m/s) determining time constraints and the availability of the road network for this purpose. Based on the information that defines the settlements with the highest risk (considering the hazard in the 100 m and 500 m surrounding them) and with a more unfavorable evacuation perspective, the critical settlements are established as priorities when considering the action and response to the occurrence of rural fires. More than 1/4 of the total 2763 settlements identified in the municipality of Sertã fit into this reality in all the scenarios analyzed. Considering the particularities verified in the municipality, mitigation and adaptation measures are later identified.
Rural fires are one of the most relevant dangerous phenomena in the Portuguese panorama, and these have been worsening with the changes perceived in the current climatic, socioeconomic and land use dynamics (Oliveira et al., 2020). It is therefore essential to understand how they affect the populations inserted in the wildland-urban interface, identifying the main measures to be implemented to amplify the response capacity and reduce their impact. To this end, an analysis was carried out at the scale of the subsection of the Geographic Information Reference Base (INE, 2021) and the settlements in the municipality of Sertã, determining the structural exposure, perceived through the proportion of the more structurally hazardous areas and exposed elements; vulnerability, integrated through the consideration of the dependent population and seasonal population; and the risk resulting from the combination of structural exposure and vulnerability. In addition, the identification and classification of shelter sites according to their suitability and hazardousness are presented, and suggestions of shelters that address the main structural deficiencies found are given. In this context, the constraints involving a possible pedestrian evacuation of the population from the settlements to the nearest shelter are perceived, being analyzed at different paces (m/s) determining time constraints and the availability of the road network for this purpose. Based on the information that defines the settlements with the highest risk (considering the hazard in the 100 m and 500 m surrounding them) and with a more unfavorable evacuation perspective, the critical settlements are established as priorities when considering the action and response to the occurrence of rural fires. More than 1/4 of the total 2763 settlements identified in the municipality of Sertã fit into this reality in all the scenarios analyzed. Considering the particularities verified in the municipality, mitigation and adaptation measures are later identified.
Descrição
Palavras-chave
wildfires structural exposure seasonality evacuation Sertã incêndios rurais exposição estrutural sazonalidade evacuação Sertã