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Equity research : Ahold Delhaize
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O presente trabalho teve como objetivo determinar o valor das ações da Ahold Delhaize a 31 dezembro de 2025. Inicialmente, foi realizado um estudo ao setor do retalho alimentar, assim como uma análise à organização. A Ahold Delhaize é uma das empresas com maior relevância no setor do retalho alimentar, destacando-se pelo seu contínuo esforço de investimento e evolução. A avaliação realizada teve como base dois métodos: DFC, com a abordagem do FCFF e, para complementar esta análise, foi utilizado o método dos Múltiplos. No término da análise, os resultados indicam que as ações se encontram subavaliadas, evidenciando um potencial de valorização de 3,84%. Esta conclusão baseia-se no facto de que, a 6 de junho de 2025, o preço das ações na Euronext Lisbon era de 36,23€, enquanto o valor estimado através do método FCFF foi calculado em 37,44€ e do método dos múltiplos 38,04€. Além disso, foi efetuada uma análise de sensibilidade, considerando alterações em duas das variáveis determinantes do processo de avaliação. Em conclusão, neste trabalho recomenda-se aos potenciais investidores a compra, com um preço-alvo de 37,62€ a 31 de dezembro de 2025. Este valor resultou da combinação da ponderação de 70% do valor obtido pelo método de atualização de fluxos de caixa (FCFF) e 30% pelo método dos Múltiplos. Desta forma, reflete um potencial de valorização de 3,84% face ao preço das ações registado em 6 de junho de 2025.
The objective of this study was to determine the value of Ahold Delhaize shares as of December 31, 2025. In the first phase, a study of the food retail sector was conducted, as well as an analysis of the organization. Ahold Delhaize is one of the most important companies in the food retail sector, standing out for its continuous investment and evolution efforts. The evaluation was based on two methods: DFC, using the FCFF approach, and, to complement this analysis, the multiples method was used. At the end of the analysis, the results indicate that the shares are undervalued, showing a potential appreciation of 3.84%. This conclusion is based on the fact that, on June 6, 2025, the share price on Euronext Lisbon was €36.23, while the estimated value using the FCFF method was calculated at €37.44 and using the multiples method at €38.04. In addition, a sensitivity analysis was performed, considering changes in two of the determining variables of the valuation process. In conclusion, this study recommends that potential investors buy, with a target price of €37.62 on December 31, 2025. This value resulted from the weighted combination of 70% of the value obtained by the free cash flow to the firm (FCFF) method and 30% by the multiples method. Thus, it reflects a potential appreciation of 3.84% compared to the share price recorded on June 6, 2025.
The objective of this study was to determine the value of Ahold Delhaize shares as of December 31, 2025. In the first phase, a study of the food retail sector was conducted, as well as an analysis of the organization. Ahold Delhaize is one of the most important companies in the food retail sector, standing out for its continuous investment and evolution efforts. The evaluation was based on two methods: DFC, using the FCFF approach, and, to complement this analysis, the multiples method was used. At the end of the analysis, the results indicate that the shares are undervalued, showing a potential appreciation of 3.84%. This conclusion is based on the fact that, on June 6, 2025, the share price on Euronext Lisbon was €36.23, while the estimated value using the FCFF method was calculated at €37.44 and using the multiples method at €38.04. In addition, a sensitivity analysis was performed, considering changes in two of the determining variables of the valuation process. In conclusion, this study recommends that potential investors buy, with a target price of €37.62 on December 31, 2025. This value resulted from the weighted combination of 70% of the value obtained by the free cash flow to the firm (FCFF) method and 30% by the multiples method. Thus, it reflects a potential appreciation of 3.84% compared to the share price recorded on June 6, 2025.
Descrição
Trabalho Final de Mestrado, Contabilidade, Fiscalidade e Finanças Empresariais, ISEG, 2025.
Palavras-chave
Ahold Delhaize Discounted Cash Flows Relative Valuation Ahold Delhaize Avaliação Atualização dos Fluxos de Caixa Avaliação dos Múltiplos