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A instabilidade política no Irão entre 2015-2025 e os seus efeitos na escalada armamentista e na segurança regional
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Resumo(s)
Este trabalho é o resultado de uma experiência conjunta entre o trabalho de 6 meses no Ministério dos Negócios Estrangeiros, na Divisão de Desarmamento e Não-Proliferação, e o Mestrado em Desenvolvimento e Cooperação Internacional no Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão da Universidade de Lisboa, e procura descrever e interpretar a instabilidade política no Irão entre os anos de 2015 e 2025 e como esta contribuiu para a corrida armamentista e para a insegurança regional. O Médio Oriente (MO) é conhecido pela sua constante instabilidade e conflitos bélicos aparentemente intermináveis, com fatores centrais que alimentam a falta de paz. Alimentada pela instabilidade política, repressão, violência, crescente mal-estar entre os representantes e mal-entendidos diplomáticos, a tensão entre o Ocidente, o Oriente e os países vizinhos deixam a região sob preocupação relativamente à segurança regional e coletiva. O objetivo deste estudo e investigação é explorar como as tensões políticas internas, as pressões externas e as ruturas diplomáticas – mais notavelmente incumprimento do Irão do Plano de Ação Conjunto Global (JCPoA) – aceleraram os desenvolvimentos militares de Teerão, particularmente nas tecnologias de mísseis balísticos e veículos aéreos não-tripulados (UAV). O estudo contextualiza a instabilidade política, particularmente no Irão, destacando os desafios económicos, as lutas pelo poder entre fações e as sanções internacionais que moldaram os cálculos estratégicos do país. Analisa como as questões internas levaram o governo e os órgãos militares, particularmente a Guarda Revolucionária Islâmica do Irão (IRGC), a priorizar os avanços nos programas de mísseis e nas capacidades dos drones como instrumentos de dissuasão, projeção de poder e guerra assimétrica. Nota: À data da realização deste relatório os mais recentes acontecimentos entre o Irão, os EUA e Israel ainda não tinham ocorrido. Porém, o relatório está devidamente atualizado até à data de 23 de junho de 2025 não constando mais desenvolvimentos após esse dia.
This work is the result of a joint experience between working for 6 months at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in the Disarmament and Non-Proliferation Division and the Master's Degree in Development and International Cooperation at the Lisbon School of Economics and Management (Universidade de Lisboa), and seeks to describe and interpret the political instability in Iran between the years 2015-2025 and how it affected the arms build-up and regional security. The Middle East is known for its constant instability and seemingly never-ending war conflicts, with central drivers feeding the lack of peace. Fuelled by political instability, repression, violence, growing unease between proxies, and diplomatic misunderstandings, tension between the West, the East and neighbouring countries has left the region a concern for regional and collective security. The purpose of this study and research explores how internal political tensions, external pressures and diplomatic ruptures – most notably Iran's non-compliance with the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPoA) – have accelerated Tehran's military developments, particularly in ballistic missile and unmanned aerial vehicle technologies (UAV). The study contextualizes political instability, particularly in Iran, highlighting the economic challenges, factional power struggles and international sanctions that have shaped the country's strategic calculations. It analyses how internal issues have spurred the government and military bodies, particularly the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), to prioritize advances in missile programs and drone capabilities as instruments of deterrence, power projection and asymmetric warfare. Note: At the time of writing, the latest developments between Iran, the US and Israel had not yet taken place. However, the report is duly updated to June 23, 2025, with no further developments after that day.
This work is the result of a joint experience between working for 6 months at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in the Disarmament and Non-Proliferation Division and the Master's Degree in Development and International Cooperation at the Lisbon School of Economics and Management (Universidade de Lisboa), and seeks to describe and interpret the political instability in Iran between the years 2015-2025 and how it affected the arms build-up and regional security. The Middle East is known for its constant instability and seemingly never-ending war conflicts, with central drivers feeding the lack of peace. Fuelled by political instability, repression, violence, growing unease between proxies, and diplomatic misunderstandings, tension between the West, the East and neighbouring countries has left the region a concern for regional and collective security. The purpose of this study and research explores how internal political tensions, external pressures and diplomatic ruptures – most notably Iran's non-compliance with the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPoA) – have accelerated Tehran's military developments, particularly in ballistic missile and unmanned aerial vehicle technologies (UAV). The study contextualizes political instability, particularly in Iran, highlighting the economic challenges, factional power struggles and international sanctions that have shaped the country's strategic calculations. It analyses how internal issues have spurred the government and military bodies, particularly the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), to prioritize advances in missile programs and drone capabilities as instruments of deterrence, power projection and asymmetric warfare. Note: At the time of writing, the latest developments between Iran, the US and Israel had not yet taken place. However, the report is duly updated to June 23, 2025, with no further developments after that day.
Descrição
Trabalho Final de Mestrado, Desenvolvimento e Cooperação Internacional, ISEG, 2025.
Palavras-chave
Instability Non-Proliferation Disarmament UAVs Missiles Security Transparency Accountability Instabilidade Não-Proliferação Desarmamento UAV Mísseis Segurança Transparência Responsabilidade