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Advisor(s)
Abstract(s)
Esta investigação tem por objetivo verificar como a matriz elétrica brasileira se
comportou a partir de 1900 a 2002, observando a evolução do driver regulatório que rege a
política nacional de energia elétrica e os investimentos dele decorrentes na sua capacidade
instalada. Analisou-se o desenvolvimento da matriz que tem por objetivo suprir de energia
elétrica do Brasil e, o problema de pesquisa consiste em aferir como o driver regulatório
incide sobre os investimentos a fim de garantir a segurança do fornecimento de energia
elétrica.
A hipótese desta investigação é que o conjunto de leis e normas no Brasil, para a
política energia elétrica ora tem fomentado segurança, ora tem gerado insegurança no
investimento para o desenvolvimento desta política.
A estratégia metodológica tenta encontrar a razoabilidade entre a demanda e oferta, tão
necessária ao crescimento e ao desenvolvimento econômico, social e ambiental, pois sem
energia elétrica, ambos são impossíveis de potencializar. Para a análise de dados, levantouse dois conjuntos. Pelo lado da demanda -, a população residente, o PIB e o PIB per capita -
, pelo lado da oferta, as fontes disponíveis de energia - hídrica, térmica, nuclear, eólica e sua
potência instalada correspondente. No âmbito da análise dos dados, organizou- se os mesmos
a partir da Análise das Equações Estruturais - latentes e manifestas -, para em seguida fazer
uma Análise Fatorial, tentando encontrar um intervalo entre a demanda e oferta de energia,
sempre na perspectiva de ver a razoabilidade da segurança da oferta de energia elétrica.
Ao longo dos anos de 1990, foram introduzidas mudanças no Sistema Elétrico
Brasileiro, com um padrão internacional de desverticalização da política energética, em busca
da concorrência, estabelecendo um novo driver regulatório, com a transferência de
responsabilidade do setor público para o setor privado e, diante de um quadro de escassez
hídrica, pôde-se constatar, ao longo da demonstração dos argumentos no corpo deste trabalho
que, a evolução da política de energia elétrica no Brasil para os anos de 1999 a 2002 ocorreu
um impacto enorme na magnitude da crise de energética de 2001 devido à crise hídrica. Mas
ao se recuar no tempo, ao determinar o crescimento da sua matriz elétrica baseada na fonte
hídrica, o Brasil foi eficaz e competitivo, mas fragilizou-se com o modelo hidrotérmico,
tornando diminuta a fonte térmica.
As considerações sugeridas é que a política nacional de energia elétrica precisa reunir
esforços, construir regulação consensuada e aportar recursos para diversificar a matriz de
energia elétrica nacional para enfrentar o desafio hídrico nacional, pois a confiabilidade em
uma só fonte de energia ainda que renovável, não é razoável.
Ressalta também que, um país, como o Brasil, que tem experiências em energias
renováveis e está na fronteira do conhecimento destas energias, sempre conseguirá ofertá-las
com segurança, sem tornar diminuto o backup, tão necessário ao Sistema Elétrico Brasileiro,
pois a premissa basilar que sustenta este trabalho é a noção de que o desenvolvimento
econômico, social e ambiental é resultado da união entre os agentes de uma nação em torno
de objetivos comuns de crescimento e desenvolvimento econômicos e, essa união se
apresenta como um fator para atingir esses objetivos em múltiplos aspectos. O Brasil, porém enfrenta uma dificuldade, como nos aponta Roberto Simonsen “os
povos que hoje se encontram na vanguarda do progresso e da civilização libertaram-se nos
tempos modernos de sua desorganização que os estiolava e, a primeira manifestação de sua
força foi a fixação de uma consciência nacional de suas próprias aspirações e necessidades,
permitindo-lhes rotas políticas que lhes facilitariam uma rápida evolução econômica, mas
no Brasil, apesar dos esforços dos nossos maiores e do quando já realizamos em face dos
múltiplos fatores adversos que nos deparamos, ainda não chegamos à inteira formação dessa
consciência” (1978).
This investigation aims to verify how the Brazilian electrical matrix behaved in the decades from 1900 to 2002, observing the evolution of the regulatory driver that governs the national electricity policy and the resulting investments in its installed capacity. The development of the matrix that aims to supply the country with electricity was analyzed, and the research problem is to assess how the regulatory driver affects investments to guarantee the security of the electricity supply. This investigation hypothesizes that the set of laws and norms in Brazil, for the electric energy policy, has sometimes fostered security, and sometimes has generated insecurity in the investment for the development of this policy. The methodological strategy tries to find reasonableness between demand and supply, so necessary for economic, social, and environmental growth and development since without electricity, both are impossible to leverage. For data analysis, two sets of data were raised. On the demand side - the resident population, GDP, and GDP per capita -, on the supply side, the available sources of energy - hydro, thermal, nuclear, wind, and their corresponding installed power. Within the scope of data analysis, they were organized from the Analysis of Structural Equations - latent and manifest -, to then carry out a Factor Analysis, trying to find an interval between demand and supply of energy, always to see the reasonableness of the security of the electricity supply. Throughout the 1990s, changes were introduced in the Brazilian Electric System, with an international standard of verticalization of the energy policy, in search of competition, establishing a new regulatory driver, with the transfer of responsibility from the public sector to the private sector and, in the face of water scarcity, it was possible to verify, throughout the demonstration of the arguments in the body of this work, that the evolution of the electric energy policy in Brazil for the years 1999 to 2002 had an enormous impact on the magnitude of the crisis of 2001 due to the water crisis. But when going back in time, when determining the growth of its electrical matrix based on the water source, Brazil was efficient and competitive, but weakened with the hydrothermal model, making the thermal source small. The suggested considerations are that the national electricity policy needs to join efforts, build consistent regulations and contribute resources to diversify the national electricity matrix to face the national water challenge, since the reliability of a single source of energy, even if renewable, is not it's reasonable. It also points out that a country like Brazil, which has experience in renewable energies and is on the frontier of knowledge about these energies, will always be able to offer them safely, without reducing the backup, so necessary for the Brazilian Electric System, since the premise The foundation that sustains this work is the notion that economic, social and environmental development is the result of the union between the agents of a nation around common objectives of economic growth and development, and this union is presented as a factor to achieve these objectives in multiple aspects. Brazil, however, faces a difficulty, as Roberto Simonsen points out, “the people who today are at the forefront of progress and civilization have freed themselves in modern times from the disorganization that withered them, and the first manifestation of their strength was the fixation of a national awareness of their aspirations and needs, allowing them political routes that would facilitate a rapid economic evolution, but in Brazil, despite the efforts of our elders and what we have already accomplished in the face of the multiple adverse factors that we have faced, still we have not reached the complete formation of this conscience” (1978).
This investigation aims to verify how the Brazilian electrical matrix behaved in the decades from 1900 to 2002, observing the evolution of the regulatory driver that governs the national electricity policy and the resulting investments in its installed capacity. The development of the matrix that aims to supply the country with electricity was analyzed, and the research problem is to assess how the regulatory driver affects investments to guarantee the security of the electricity supply. This investigation hypothesizes that the set of laws and norms in Brazil, for the electric energy policy, has sometimes fostered security, and sometimes has generated insecurity in the investment for the development of this policy. The methodological strategy tries to find reasonableness between demand and supply, so necessary for economic, social, and environmental growth and development since without electricity, both are impossible to leverage. For data analysis, two sets of data were raised. On the demand side - the resident population, GDP, and GDP per capita -, on the supply side, the available sources of energy - hydro, thermal, nuclear, wind, and their corresponding installed power. Within the scope of data analysis, they were organized from the Analysis of Structural Equations - latent and manifest -, to then carry out a Factor Analysis, trying to find an interval between demand and supply of energy, always to see the reasonableness of the security of the electricity supply. Throughout the 1990s, changes were introduced in the Brazilian Electric System, with an international standard of verticalization of the energy policy, in search of competition, establishing a new regulatory driver, with the transfer of responsibility from the public sector to the private sector and, in the face of water scarcity, it was possible to verify, throughout the demonstration of the arguments in the body of this work, that the evolution of the electric energy policy in Brazil for the years 1999 to 2002 had an enormous impact on the magnitude of the crisis of 2001 due to the water crisis. But when going back in time, when determining the growth of its electrical matrix based on the water source, Brazil was efficient and competitive, but weakened with the hydrothermal model, making the thermal source small. The suggested considerations are that the national electricity policy needs to join efforts, build consistent regulations and contribute resources to diversify the national electricity matrix to face the national water challenge, since the reliability of a single source of energy, even if renewable, is not it's reasonable. It also points out that a country like Brazil, which has experience in renewable energies and is on the frontier of knowledge about these energies, will always be able to offer them safely, without reducing the backup, so necessary for the Brazilian Electric System, since the premise The foundation that sustains this work is the notion that economic, social and environmental development is the result of the union between the agents of a nation around common objectives of economic growth and development, and this union is presented as a factor to achieve these objectives in multiple aspects. Brazil, however, faces a difficulty, as Roberto Simonsen points out, “the people who today are at the forefront of progress and civilization have freed themselves in modern times from the disorganization that withered them, and the first manifestation of their strength was the fixation of a national awareness of their aspirations and needs, allowing them political routes that would facilitate a rapid economic evolution, but in Brazil, despite the efforts of our elders and what we have already accomplished in the face of the multiple adverse factors that we have faced, still we have not reached the complete formation of this conscience” (1978).
Description
Doutoramento em Estudos do Desenvolvimento
Keywords
Pedagogical Context
Citation
Silva, Cleuber Vieira dos Santos da (2023). "A incidência do Driver Regulatório na constituição da matriz elétrica brasileira e o sistema hidrotérmico em transformação". Tese de Doutoramento. Universidade de Lisboa. Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão.
Publisher
Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão