BISEG - Teses de Doutoramento / Ph.D. Thesis
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- As práticas de medição do desempenho organizacional no contexto dos paradigmas da administração pública:evidÊncia nas forças armadas portuguesasPublication . Castanho, Ana Mafalda Martins; Gonçalves, Alcino Tiago CruzEsta investigação objetiva o entendimento das práticas de administração e gestão das Forças Armadas portuguesas, com incidência na medição do desempenho organizacional. Para tal, contextualiza este estudo nas teorias da Administração Pública assentes em três paradigmas (Old Public Administration, New Public Management e Public Governance) e o argumento de que os stakeholders são a força motora da gestão do desempenho no setor público. Assim, identifica as práticas de gestão utilizadas com base nos três principais paradigmas da Administração Pública, a existência de subconjuntos de metodologias de gestão empregues e examina as práticas de medição do desempenho organizacional utilizadas e as que deveriam ser utilizadas. A recolha dos dados é efetuada através das perceções dos militares e é baseada em entrevistas, questionários e análise documental. Os resultados demonstram uma gestão híbrida e complexa com as ideologias Old Public Administration enraizadas, a existência de diferenças nas perceções dos militares ao longo da estrutura hierárquica e que deveria existir uma mudança das práticas de medição do desempenho organizacional utilizadas.
- A influência do género no desenvolvimento da liderança militar: estudo de caso com oficiais do Exército PortuguêsPublication . Guimarães, Pedro Manuel de Oliveira; Jerónimo, Helena Mateus; Henriques, Paulo Alexandre LopesA liderança militar é o pilar do cumprimento das missões na instituição militar, assumindo um carácter decisivo em situação de campanha, caracterizada por situações extremas. O objetivo geral da presente tese é analisar a influência do género no desenvolvimento da liderança militar em oficiais do Exército Português, num ambiente organizacional tipicamente masculino, hierárquico, disciplinado, coletivo, com forte poder formal e com um sólido processo de aculturação. Para o efeito, foi levado a cabo um estudo de caso utilizando métodos mistos, através da combinação de questionários a uma amostra de 187 cadetes da Academia Militar e a 40 oficiais do Exército, com entrevistas semidiretivas a 40 oficiais do Exército. Os resultados obtidos sugerem a ligação entre 3 variáveis de liderança, que são importantes para o cumprimento da missão: o interesse pela liderança (que varia ao longo da carreira militar), a autoliderança e a liderança autêntica, sendo que a categoria de quem lidera modera a relação entre a autoliderança e a liderança autêntica. Já o género não modera qualquer das relações de liderança estudadas, nem o comportamento padrão de líderes militares. Foram ainda identificados estereótipos de género no Exército e alguns obstáculos na carreira de militares femininos, que poderão ser mitigados através de uma sensibilização e informação acerca da adoção de critérios diferentes, nomeadamente na avaliação física, e da correção do processo de avaliação de militares femininos aquando do gozo de licença de maternidade.
- Essays on cryptomarket individual investors' behaviorPublication . Iamin, Gustavo Carim Paiva; Vieira, Pedro Rino; Crespo, Nuno FernandesCryptocurrencies have garnered significant attention from investors, media, and scholars due to their innovative nature. Emerging from a 2008 white paper, these digital assets revolutionized finance. However, the cryptomarket is still in an early stage, remaining highly volatile and unpredictable. Despite warnings, the influx of retail investors has grown exponentially, and they seem to trade mostly based on sentiments and apparently neglecting risks, having expectations of extreme outcomes. In this context, the elements that drive individual investment decisions are still unclear, leaving the crypto market a largely unexplored domain. This thesis is dedicated to unravel the intriguing realm of cryptocurrencies, particularly investigating the nature of individual investors in this market and the behavioral factors that might be driving them to buy cryptocurrencies. The main goal is to answer the following research question: What are the key behavioral, demographic, and psychological factors shaping the personal intention to invest in cryptocurrencies, and how do they interact to influence actual behavior? The research unfolds through four interconnected studies. The first study (Chapter 2) systematically reviews the academic literature on cryptocurrencies to provide a structured and comprehensive understanding of investor attitudes. Analyzing 507 peer-reviewed articles, our work highlights the inefficiencies of the cryptocurrency market, the challenges of price prediction, and the uncertain diversification benefits associated with crypto-assets. Furthermore, it identifies a significant research gap regarding individual investor behavior in the cryptomarket, x underscoring the necessity of empirical investigations into the psychological and demographic characteristics shaping investment attitude toward cryptocurrencies. The subsequent three chapters employ survey-based research, gathering 826 responses through an online questionnaire. The first empirical study (Chapter 3) examines the role of overconfidence in distinguishing cryptocurrency investors from non-investors. Utilizing SPSS and logit regression modeling, the findings confirm that overconfidence significantly predicts investment in cryptocurrencies. While overconfidence and risk propensity are closely linked, they stem from distinct personality traits. Age and market experience correlate positively with overconfidence but negatively with risk propensity, while financial knowledge does not significantly impact investment decisions. These results indicate that psychological biases rather than financial literacy may be key drivers of investment behavior in the cryptomarket. We also examine how personality traits influence investment intentions (chapter 4). Employing Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM), we find that agreeableness, conscientiousness, and neuroticism negatively affect investment intentions, while higher risk propensity increases the likelihood of investment and mediates the link between conscientiousness and attitudes toward cryptocurrencies. Additionally, this research highlights the significant role of overconfidence in shaping both investment intentions and actual behavior (chapter 5). Results confirm that behavioral intention mediates the link between personal characteristics and investment actions. Furthermore, a comparative analysis with online banking adoption suggests that familiarity with digital financial platforms may facilitate cryptocurrency engagement. xi Synthesizing insights from the systematic review and empirical studies, this thesis advances the literature on behavioral finance by integrating psychological and technological dimensions into the analysis of cryptocurrency investment. The findings contribute to theoretical frameworks on overconfidence and risk propensity, contextualizing them within the volatile and speculative nature of the cryptomarket. By examining personality traits alongside behavioral biases, this research offers a more holistic perspective on investment decision-making. From a practical standpoint, the findings have implications for policymakers, financial institutions, and investors. Regulatory bodies can leverage these insights to design investor education programs that account for psychological biases and demographic variations. Financial advisors may also incorporate personality-based insights to offer personalized investment strategies that align with client risk profile. For retail investors, this research highlights the importance of self-awareness in financial decision-making. Recognizing the influence of personal characteristics and biases can help individuals make more informed investment choices, ultimately improving risk management strategies in the cryptocurrency market. As the cryptomarket continues to evolve, understanding the behavioral underpinnings of investment intentions remains essential for fostering a more stable investment environment.
- Managing Complexity in Healthcare: Complexity science principles and the paradigm-shift in managing healthcare dualities: The medical education and patient’s involvement challengesPublication . Lopes, Catarina Martins; Gomes, Jorge Filipe da Silva; Albuquerque, Isabel Garcia e Faro deThis dissertation is about the need to embrace paradigm-shifting in medical education from the prevalent Newtonian model to the emerging Complexity science. Although described for more than two decades in the literature, complexity science remains superficially known by the healthcare community. The dominance of the rationalistic paradigm is still very strong due to several reasons: (a) learning and knowledge practices still follow essentially knowledge-asprediction (versus knowledge-as-understanding adequate for unpredictable situations), (b) formal curriculum usually ignores any other discipline or knowledge external to clinical and basic expertise (i.e., epistemological narrowing), (c) medical schools teach health as the machine metaphor and illness as the result of the malfunction of its parts, and (d) linear mental models drive professionals to break down clinical care into specialized operations (e.g., define strict procedures for each situation). Furthermore, the reductionist way of organizing care and delivery makes almost impossible for nonmedicals to understand operations, and high differentiation. Finally, healthcare is different from all other complex services as health outcomes depend on patient’s adherence. Thus, patient-doctor relationship is vital and needs to be protected. Alternative paradigm of complexity science suggests that health and illness result from complex and adaptive interplay between different components of the whole system (i.e., biopsychosocial), leading to clinical decisions based on holistic approaches that embraces unpredictability (i.e., rigid advice become obsolete) and recognizes emerging forces of the whole system (e.g., intuition, experience). Three studies were conducted based on a real-world problem introduced by a Portuguese medical school, namely to understand the evolving needs of medical education and the emerging future areas regarding patients (e.g., chronical) and systems (e.g., complexity), to obtain a broad understanding of the challenges these professionals face in the 21st century. First study looked to explore participants experiences during care and delivery aiming to identify patterns of how doctors and patients cope with competing needs, realworld complexities and conflicting demands. It followed Grounded Theory (GT) and the three coding stages (open, axial, selective) looking to catch the interplay between 99 stakeholders (13 FG). The emerging patterns obtained through induction where then iv compared against theory, revealed diverse, interrelated, paradoxical problems doctors face daily in Portuguese health institutions. Challenges were represented by nine themes followed by four aggregate dimensions organized in two pairs of dualities that composed a paradoxical model in line with the complexity paradigm logic: (1) medical proximity versus (2) expertise vigilance, and (3) holism and diversity versus (4) clinical and integrated structure. Dimensions illustrate practice dichotomies and their interdependencies. The model can provide medical education with a better understanding and importance of adopting complexity thinking to guide their activities. Furthermore, it is an insightful tool for future doctors to reflect about experiences, complex practices and positions regarding each pair of dualities, identify balances or imbalances between patterns of behaviours, and desirable or undesirable outcomes. This study contributed to highlight the ontological nature of healthcare. The second study is a mix method study combining thematic analysis (TA) and narratives organized by temporality and plot to explore the experiences of participants (13 FG, two clusters: IMSS and EMSS, representing different “worlds”) during patientdoctor relationship. Participant’s engagement experiences were study at this dyadic relationship, patient’s roles (e.g., active, passive) and provider’s roles (e.g., B2C, A2A) in the light of the Service-dominant Logic (SDL). SDL view was compared with Relationship-centered care (RCC) and value cocreation concept was used in the patientdoctor relationship empirical field. SDL advances RCC regarding patient’s role who need to be recognized as resource integrator (active). It is when doctors offer care solutions and patients integrated those in their own profile of resources that health benefit can be cocreated. Such was revealed by narratives arranged by plot and temporality. Stories during patient-doctor relationships were compared: a) in the past and present times the IMSS highlighted doctor’s paternalistic-power roles and patient’s passive roles, and b) during future temporality more active and equating-roles were whished. This study has practical implications for medical education: a) RCC is important to be included (e.g., communication, interpersonal skills, humanizing) but is the SDL view that advances patients and professional’s roles (A2A versus B2C), and b) patient needs to be viewed as operant resources by doctors, who in turn only offer part of the inputs to cocreate health benefit. It also draws management implications: a) managers need to support and protect this relationship, and b) recognize the unfinished nature of the relationship that needs v feedback from patients to doctors and vice-versa to adjust and make sense of situations. In sum, study highlights the need to recognized the idiosyncrasy of each case operating during patient-doctor relationship in accordance with the praxeology of applied disciplines such as medicine (versus homogenous and general rules). The third study is a qualitative content analysis (QCA) using an unconstrained matrix based on two medical education frameworks addressing medical education reform, the CanMEDS (2025; 2015) and the Health Systems Science (HSS), respectively grounded on CAS and on system thinking (i.e., systems-theory), to identify the emerging future areas and if systems and complexity thinking is identified as core by a Portuguese sample. This study contributes for the literature in the medical education field through an extensive review of the systems-theory (i.e., systems theory, complexity theory) and the advances brought by the complexity science, the clarification of their multidisciplinary roots, concepts and basic assumptions. It also draws implications to medical education (e.g., curriculum) through the identification of future areas, and to management (e.g., doctors, managers, others) by highlighting the need to maintain the organizations in the complexity zone (i.e., “edge of chaos”, “loosely coupled”) developing a structure not too tight nor too flexible, in order to deal with uncertainty, unpredictability and with the emergence of new patterns and behaviours, allowing for agents, processes, systems changing, adaptation and co-evolution. Thus, the third study contributes for the explanation of the epistemology of the complexity science paradigm, more specifically, its assumptions and premises. Considering it all, the present research thesis and the three studies aim to contribute and advance the paradigm of complexity science in the healthcare field and in the area of medical education.
- Does purpose matter? Exploring its impact on individuals and organizationsPublication . Jones, Leigh Ann; Gomes, Jorge Filipe da SilvaThis thesis investigates whether and how purpose drives performance, progressing from its definition as an individual motivator to its role as a driver of organizational success. Despite increasing emphasis on purpose in academic literature and management practice, gaps remain regarding the alignment of individual and organizational purpose, the role of leadership, and its measurable impact on business outcomes. Addressing these gaps, this research introduces models that connect individual purpose to organizational performance, illustrating how purpose is applied and experienced within business contexts. Study 1 establishes the conceptual foundations of purpose, distinguishing it from terms such as goals and meaning, and develops frameworks for aligning individual intentions with collective organizational objectives. Study 2 expands on the individual to organizational connection by focusing on the role of leaders, particularly CEOs, as the most influential individuals in crafting and embedding an organization’s purpose. Through interviews with senior leaders, this qualitative study identifies a four-phase process based on how leader’s perceive their role in creating purpose-driven organizations. Study 3 is a quantitative study using survey data to examine how employees, as a key stakeholder group, perceive organizational purpose and its influence on their individual performance, and overall organizational outcomes. The study highlights the critical roles of responsible leadership and job satisfaction in mediating these effects. Overall, the findings of this research demonstrate that purpose, when authentically embedded by leadership and perceived as meaningful by employees, fosters job satisfaction and perceived individual and organizational performance.
- Despesa pública em educação e saúde em Portugal: tendências históricas e padrões redistributivosPublication . Campos, João Luís Andrade Serra Moreira de; Pereirinha, José António CorreiaNo relatório da Comissão sobre a Medição do Desempenho Económico e do Progresso Social, coordenado por Stiglitz, Sen e Fitoussi (2009), uma das recomendações expressas visa a consideração dos serviços publicamente aprovisionados no rendimento e no consumo dos agregados domésticos. A provisão de tais serviços consta dos cinco processos com impacto na distribuição do rendimento que Boyer (2015) nomeia, indo ao encontro da ideia de Piketty (2021) de que a universalização da educação e dos cuidados de saúde foi determinante na caminhada para a igualdade observada ao longo dos últimos dois séculos. Por conseguinte, através desta investigação, procura-se compreender qual o impacto redistributivo espoletado pela intervenção do Estado português nestes dois domínios. De acordo com Kakwani (1976), o impacto redistributivo depende do nível de desigualdade prévio à provisão, da progressividade e da dimensão do serviço em causa. Ora, a sua dimensão é aferida mediante a despesa que lhe subjaz. Assim, numa primeira fase deste trabalho, analisam-se os padrões de despesa pública em educação e saúde constatados, desde a Revolução de Abril, momento em que ocorreram profundas transformações institucionais, até à conjuntura pandémica. Tais padrões assumem a forma de ciclos, sendo identificados quinze, sete no domínio da educação e oito no da saúde. No que concerne ao primeiro, são destacados: a democratização do acesso à educação (1974-1977), a consolidação do sistema público de ensino (1978-1984), a Lei de Bases do Sistema Educativo (1985-1992), a procura máxima do sistema público de ensino (1993-1999), a fase de contenção da despesa (2000-2004), do decréscimo à política contracíclica (2005-2010) e o inverno demográfico e a retração (2011-2019). Em relação ao segundo, distinguem-se: as etapas para a criação do Serviço Nacional de Saúde (1974-1979), uma alternativa ideologicamente distinta (1980-1983), a abertura progressiva à iniciativa privada (1984-1990), a época das experiências de quase-empresarialização (1991-2000), o subfinanciamento e a acumulação de passivos (2001-2005), a dificuldade para assegurar a sustentabilidade (2006-2009), a diminuição da despesa imposta externamente (2010-2014) e a recuperação sem disrupção (2015-2019). A segunda fase da investigação em apreço assenta na equiparação dos serviços aprovisionados a um benefício recebido pelos indivíduos, cuja incidência é avaliada e o impacto redistributivo da sua atribuição calculado. O recurso ao módulo suplementar da edição de 2016 do Inquérito às Condições de Vida e Rendimento (ICOR), que versa sobre o acesso a serviços, permite a identificação dos beneficiários de educação, enquanto, no caso da saúde, tal é feito através dos perfis de utilização definidos pelos técnicos da Administração Central do Sistema de Saúde. As verbas a imputar são determinadas segundo a abordagem do custo de produção eapós a alocação na base de microdados da edição do ICOR referida, estimam-se os rendimentos alargados individuais, aplicando duas escalas de equivalência (OCDE modificada e SNA). Os resultados obtidos evidenciam uma redução da desigualdade mais expressiva decorrente da provisão de cuidados de saúde do que de educação, explicada sobretudo pela dimensão superior, não obstante a sua menor progressividade. A magnitude da provisão conjunta de ambos excede mesmo a que Rodrigues et al. (2016) mensuram para o pagamento de impostos e contribuições e o embolso de prestações sociais. Parte significativa das ilações retiradas é consonante com as conclusões a que chegam Paulus et al. (2010), Verbist e Matsaganis (2012) e Aaberge et al. (2013).
- Essays on the relationship between the use of management control systems and creativity and innovation in cultural and creative organizationsPublication . Dias, Nuno Manuel Estanqueiro; Gonçalves, Alcino Tiago CruzEsta tese apresenta os resultados de um estudo de base contingencial sobre as organizações culturais e criativas, fontes de excelência de criatividade e inovação. O estudo aborda a relação que se estabelece entre os sistemas de controlo de gestão - nas suas vertentes ex-ante e ex-post - e a criatividade e as estratégias de inovação exploradora e exploratória prosseguidas. Primeiramente, realizámos uma abordagem qualitativa baseada em entrevistas semiestruturadas que nos permitiram aprimorar a seleção dos constructos a utilizar no modelo de investigação. As evidências oferecidas por este estudo qualitativo deram um importante contributo para a construção de um questionário. O inquérito por questionário produziu 357 respostas utilizáveis, as quais foram analisadas utilizando o método de equações estruturais por regressão dos mínimos quadrados parciais. Os resultados são demonstrativos do diferente posicionamento assumido pelos sistemas de controlo de gestão nas fases do processo criativo, prevalecendo a sua coexistência com controlos orgânicos. Verificou-se também que a utilização de sistemas de controlo interativos está significativamente mais associada a organizações com uma estratégia de inovação exploratória, enquanto as organizações que prosseguem uma estratégia de inovação exploradora tendem a beneficiar complementarmente dos sistemas de controlo de diagnóstico e de fronteira. Adicionalmente, esta investigação conclui que as variáveis individuais e contextuais têm um efeito moderador que facilita a relação entre as alavancas de controlo mecanicistas e as estratégias de inovação prosseguidas, pelo que sugere que estas variáveis operam suplementarmente em contextos de tensão dinâmica. Esta investigação permite integrar resultados relevantes, quer para o estudo da contabilidade de gestão, quer para a conceção de políticas orientadas para a inovação – especificamente, a adaptabilidade do uso dos sistemas de controlo e a alteração de comportamentos ou das condições em função de uma estratégia alvo.
- Youth work in post-war Europe: a comparative and empirical approachPublication . Ferrittu, Gianluca; Goulart, Pedro Vaz; Sobreira, NunoPost-war Europe was marked by economic growth and improving work outcomes, including later entry age into employment. The role of young people in the first industrialized countries changed as the economy transformed, while a new national and international regulatory agenda encompassing mass secondary education and minimum age requirements shaped these outcomes as varying governments promoted new policies. Lacking comparative perspectives on such transformation, this begs the question: how did this occur? What was the role of policy and governments? This thesis studies the change in the work of young Europeans over time, and its main socio-economic, policy and political determinants, with a specific emphasis on the Post-War period. By doing so, the thesis innovates by applying a European comparative approach to address three complementary research questions: (i) what was the incidence of young individuals’ work in Post-War Europe and how has it evolved over time and across regions? (ii) To what extent agricultural transition did impact the work of minors in this context? (iii) What was the role of regulations and political settings in delaying early transitions to work? Following the introduction, Chapter II examines the long-run evolution of young Europeans’ work, addressing the first research question. It particularly reviews the data sources on young people’s work in 14 European countries over time and presents novel European series for the Post-War period. By doing so, the chapter systematizes and discusses the main historical measurements and estimates of the work of young Europeans. It then contributes by applying and validating an alternative methodology from the literature, namely using retrospective approaches to recent data collection. The proposed estimates extend such a method to encompass 14 European nations, which allows obtaining cross-country time series annual data on young individuals’ labor force participation and their age of entry into employment since 1950. Since the end of World War II, the economic contributions among younger children sharply declined, suggesting increased human capital returns and the increasing role of education in European economies. However, the work patterns of older children show a less marked declining trend or stagnation in the last decades of the century, confirming the transition to new employment models for young Europeans: from supporting family subsistence to part-time work for personal consumption. Chapter III addresses the second research question and investigates to what extent agricultural transition contributed to the observed decline in child employment in Europe since 1950. It particularly studies the country-level child employment series presented in the second chapter with data characterizing the key mechanisms of European agricultural transition, such as the adoption of agricultural technology and the reallocation of agricultural labor towards other sectors. This information is examined together with other socio-economic structural factors that are usually listed as important for explaining the change in child labor and early employment through panel data methods. The results provide empirical support that, beyond rising income per capita and higher human capital requirements, the agricultural transition has been directly associated with declining child employment rates in European countries through two channels: across sectors, by means of structural change, with the reallocation of labor to other sectors; and within the agricultural sector, through the adoption of labor and land-saving technologies. The third research question is addressed in Chapter IV, which studies the impact of policy regulations and political settings on the aggregate entry age into employment of young workers. This section particularly derives and tests two research arguments. First, it estimates the impact of national and international regulations changes such as (i) national minimum age for admission to employment; (ii) school-leaving age and (iii) international labor standards on the starting working age of young workers. Second, it examines whether the effectiveness of these regulations is extended or weakened by forms of governance (e.g., majority vs. minoritarian cabinets) or government partisanship (e.g., the share of cabinet posts assigned to left-wing vs. center-right and right-wing parties). Such analyses are performed through panel data methods. The findings confirm regulations have mattered in the past to achieve later transitions to employment, beyond economic growth, with compulsory schooling laws increasing the age of entry into employment of young workers. Aligning schooling and minimum age regulations further delayed the aggregate transition to work of young workers. In addition, the study highlights the relevance of political settings for explaining the effectiveness of decent work regulations, extending theoretical assumptions of welfare state research on worker protections. International standards did not bind every government and characteristics of majority governance expanded the impact of ILO conventions in increasing the age of entry into employment for minors. Left-leaning governments favoured minimum age legislation outcomes, consistently with the expectation that left-wing parties were more likely to support labor interests against those of capital.
- O impacto do investimento em infraestruturas de transporte no crescimento da economia angolanaPublication . Campos, Pedro Manuel; Abreu, Alexandre José Germano deO crescimento económico depende do desenvolvimento das infraestruturas de transporte enquanto importantes forças motrizes que procuram conectar diferentes regiões para promover o bem-estar social. As infraestruturas de transporte têm um efeito de transbordo espacial positivo no crescimento económico. No entanto, o fraco investimento em infraestruturas de transporte torna a economia angolana cada vez mais fraca, o que leva várias províncias, em especial do interior, ao subdesenvolvimento e ao baixo crescimento económico devido ao fraco fluxo comercial. Para além de Luanda, as restantes províncias não têm infraestruturas de transporte qualificadas. Este aspeto torna-as províncias muito vulneráveis, com acesso muito reduzido a bens de consumo (alimentos, vestuário, calçado, etc), aos sistemas de ensino e de saúde, à internet, a energia elétrica e a telecomunicações. As províncias do interior adquirem os bens de consumo importados a preços elevados e com demoras significativas. Os agricultores que se encontram nestas localidades enfrentam muitas dificuldades em fazer chegar a sua produção aos centros urbanos. O comércio nestas regiões é extremamente precário. A má condição das infraestruturas de transporte é o principal fator determinante que tem causado o baixo fluxo comercial, o fraco desenvolvimento e os elevados custos de transporte e distribuição de produtos em Angola. Neste contexto, a análise do impacto do investimento em infraestruturas de transporte no crescimento da economia angolana torna-se relevante na medida em que poderá ajudar a compreender a dinâmica do crescimento da economia angolana, bem como a urgente necessidade de reabilitar e expandir as infraestruturas de transporte de modo a conectar o país. A análise do impacto económico do investimento em infraestruturas de trasporte tem uma capital importância na compreensão do crescimento socioeconómico do país, pois as infraestruturas de transporte e a logística desempenham um papel muito importante, facilitando o fluxo de pessoas, bens e serviços no país, bem como na região da SADC. Por esta razão, a reabilitação, a expansão e a modernização das infraestruturas de transporte são necessárias para o fortalecimento da economia angolana. Dada a importância desta questão, este estudo analisa o impacto do investimento de Angola nas suas infraestruturas de transporte entre os anos 2000-2020. Esta tese apresenta os resultados de uma pesquisa baseada numa revisão sistemática de literatura e na implementação da técnica econométrica Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL), vi que serve de instrumento para analisar o impacto do investimento em infraestruturas de transporte no crescimento da economia angolana. De um modo geral, os resultados indicam que com exceção do investimento em infraestruturas aeroportuárias, as demais formas de investimento em infraestruturas de transportes impactaram positivamente o crescimento do PIB per capita angolano no curto prazo. Já no longo prazo, o teste do ajustamento da correção do erro indica que todas as variáveis impactaram o crescimento do PIB per capita negativamente.
- Essays on macroprudential policyPublication . Passinhas, Joana Luzia Monteiro; Proença, Isabel Maria Dias; Peixe, Telmo Jorge LucasThis thesis aims to add to the existing literature tools for calibrating an macroprudential instrument - the countercyclical capital buffer (CCyB) - and to assess an implemented borrower-based measure - a limit to the debt service-to-income ratio (DSTI) - in both a low and in an increasing and higher interest rate environment. Macroprudential policy became relevant after the 2008 financial crisis, as systemic risk - the accumulation of financial imbalances that led to excessive credit and booming housing prices - was not adequately covered by existing resilience. This interaction between risk and resilience is explored in the first chapters. In the first chapter, the focus is on how ensuring enough resilience in the financial system implies managing a trade-off between expected bank profitability and downside risk in banks’ profitability. To describe this trade-off, a dynamic quantile regression model using bank-level data for Portugal that links future bank profitability to the current cyclical systemic risk environment net of the prevailing level of capital-based resilience (residual cyclical systemic risk) is estimated. Results indicate that an increase in cyclical systemic risk negatively affects the conditional distribution of bank profitability at the medium-term projection horizon (11 to 16 quarters ahead), confirming the findings in the literature. At the same time, the increase of capital-based resilience is found to counter the negative effects of cyclical systemic risk on banks profitability in the same projection horizon. Using these results, a novel calibration rule for the CCyB is defined, which is flexible enough to accommodate different preferences of the policymaker and that factors in the prevailing levels of cyclical systemic risk and capital-based resilience. This rule targets downside risk in banks’ profitability: the CCyB rate should be enough that all existing capital-based resilience (including the calibrated CCyB rate) can absorb the effect of cyclical systemic risk on deviating a measure of downside risk (in this case on the distance between the mean and the 10th percentile of banks profitability distribution in the medium-term) from the policymaker’s target. In the second chapter, evolutionary game theory is used to identify stable strategies of cyclical systemic risk and targeted resilience through macroprudential policy, specifically the CCyB. The model considers that each decision or interaction performed in the financial system can be defined within the dichotomy risk-resilience (either high or low) which receives a payoff. The payoffs are operationalized by considering quantile regressions on banks’ profitability. The payoff of high or low risk activities will be awarded based on their short-term impact on banks’ median profitability and depending on the state of macroprudential policy. The payoff of macroprudential policy will be assessed based on its medium-term impact on the ii tail of the profitability distribution and will depend on the state of cyclical systemic risk. Both specifications also depend on the level of financial stress in the system. Results show that there are two evolutionary stable strategies that depend on the level of financial stress, i.e., two strategies that, when achieved, are robust to small disturbances in the system. When financing conditions are good (financial stress is low), cyclical systemic risk will tend to increase, as agents take advantage of good conditions to engage in riskier activities; from a risk threshold onwards, the benefits of tightening macroprudential policy (of increasing resilience) will outweigh its costs. When financial stress is heightened, cyclical systemic risk will materialize and the costs of having macroprudential policy will be higher than its benefits, indicating a need to loosen the policy. In the third chapter, the impact of the Portuguese DSTI limit on the distribution of the loan service-to-income (LSTI) ratio for new household loans for house purchases is assessed in both low and increasing interest rate environments. The choice for assessing the impact on the LSTI ratio of new loans relies on the fact that they will be both constrained by the DSTI limit and by rising interest rates. The purpose of studying the effects over the distribution is that it is expected that interest rates increases (driven by reference rates) will have a more significant effect in increasing the number of loans given at a higher LSTI ratio, if no restriction was in place, and so it can increase the right tail at a larger magnitude than in the rest of the distribution. However, at the same time, because there is a DSTI limit, the interest rate increase might induce households to take out smaller loans or even exclude them entirely from the credit market, which can offset the previous effect. In order to estimate the two effects, instrumental variable quantile regressions are employed and the exceptions to the DSTI limit, foreseen in the Portuguese Recommendation, are used as a potential counterfactual to explore how differences between similar loans that belong to each one of the two groups (exceptions and non-exceptions) impacts the conditional distribution of the LSTI ratio. Results indicate that, in the absence of the DSTI limit, the LSTI distribution could shift rightward, both before and after interest rates started to increase, reflecting a higher financial burden on borrowers. The impact of the limit is more pronounced after March 2022, demonstrating its efficacy in mitigating the impact of rising interest rates by more stringently restricting higher LSTI ratios. Results throughout the thesis indicate that macroprudential policy can be effective in increasing resilience and curbing systemic risk in the financial system. The multiple tools, either capital-based or borrower-based, allow for a targeted impact depending on how systemic risk is originating in the financial system.