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Equity research CTT correios de Portugal SA : investment in retail sovereign DEBT in Portugal and CTT financial services
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Orientador(es)
Resumo(s)
O presente estudo tem como objetivo entender o grau de aderência de investigadores individuais a programas de dívida soberana, através de uma análise comparativa de todos os países da União Europeia. Os resultados possuem implicações significativas para a Avaliação dos CTT Correios de Portugal, particularmente o Segmento de Serviços Financeiros. A investigação combinou uma Análise de Componentes Principais e um agrupamento K-means de forma a agregar os diversos países da União Europeia de acordo com perfis macroeconómicos e comportamentais semelhantes. Posteriormente, foi estimado um modelo de regressão em painel com o intuito de quantificar os principais impulsionadores da dívida soberana. Esta abordagem levou ao desenvolvimento de um modelo que equilibra poder explicativo e viabilidade preditiva. Com base neste modelo, foi projetada a proporção de dívida soberana de retalho em Portugal para o período de 2025 a 2029. A previsão obtida foi consequentemente aplicada na Avaliação do Segmento de Serviços Financeiros dos CTT, conduzindo a um preço por ação do Grupo de 6.58€/sh, contrastando com o valor anteriormente estimado de 7.16€, o que corresponde a uma variação negativa de 8%. Embora o modelo mostre uma capacidade de previsão razoável da percentagem de dívida soberana de retalho, os seus resultados devem ser abordados com cautela. Uma análise mais aprofundada demonstrou que Portugal apresenta valores significativamente superiores aos dos seus pares do cluster. Isto sugere que o modelo poderá ter subestimado a percentagem prevista devido à intensa participação de investidores individuais portugueses na dívida soberana.
This report is conducted with the aim of investigating retail participation in sovereign debt programs through a comparison analysis of all European Union countries. The results will have consequent implications for the equity valuation of CTT Correios de Portugal, more specifically, the Financial Services Segment. The study combined a Principal Component Analysis and K-means clustering to group European Union countries in accordance with similar macroeconomic and behavioral profiles. Subsequently, a panel regression was conducted in order to reach a model that quantified the drivers of retail sovereign debt. This methodology led to the establishment of a model with a maximum trade-off between explanatory power and forecasting feasibility. Thereafter, the share of retail sovereign debt for Portugal was forecasted for the period of 2025 to 2029. The forecast was subsequently applied to CTT ‘s Financial Services Segment, leading to a Group price of €6.58/sh, contrasting with the previously estimated value of €7.16, thus representing a negative 8% shift. Whilst the model shows it can reasonably forecast the share of retail sovereign debt, its results should be addressed cautiously. Further analysis demonstrated that Portugal was well above its cluster peers. This implies that the model might have underestimated the forecasted share due to Portugal’s intensive retail participation in sovereign debt.
This report is conducted with the aim of investigating retail participation in sovereign debt programs through a comparison analysis of all European Union countries. The results will have consequent implications for the equity valuation of CTT Correios de Portugal, more specifically, the Financial Services Segment. The study combined a Principal Component Analysis and K-means clustering to group European Union countries in accordance with similar macroeconomic and behavioral profiles. Subsequently, a panel regression was conducted in order to reach a model that quantified the drivers of retail sovereign debt. This methodology led to the establishment of a model with a maximum trade-off between explanatory power and forecasting feasibility. Thereafter, the share of retail sovereign debt for Portugal was forecasted for the period of 2025 to 2029. The forecast was subsequently applied to CTT ‘s Financial Services Segment, leading to a Group price of €6.58/sh, contrasting with the previously estimated value of €7.16, thus representing a negative 8% shift. Whilst the model shows it can reasonably forecast the share of retail sovereign debt, its results should be addressed cautiously. Further analysis demonstrated that Portugal was well above its cluster peers. This implies that the model might have underestimated the forecasted share due to Portugal’s intensive retail participation in sovereign debt.
Descrição
Trabalho Final de Mestrado, Finance, ISEG, 2025.
Palavras-chave
Equity Research Valuation Mergers & Acquisitions Principal Component Analysis Clustering Panel Data Analysis Equity Research Avaliação de Empresas Fusões e Aquisições Análise de Componentes Principais Clustering Análise de Dados em Painel