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Advisor(s)
Abstract(s)
A dissertação investiga os determinantes do imposto sobre o rendimento das pessoas singulares (IRS) em Portugal, e de forma a concretizar o estudo recolhemos dados económicos desde Janeiro de 1998 até Dezembro de 2018.
O IRS fornece as diretrizes que são fundamentais para os decisores políticos combaterem as diferenças de desigualdade em Portugal. Para tal no presente estudo, usamos seis variáveis explicativas e de controle, tais como, o crescimento do PIB, inflação, consumo privado, desemprego, troika e taxa marginal de imposto, que ajudarão a testar os objetivos do estudo. Efetuamos a analise de series temporais através do uso do método OLS para perceber a relação entre as variáveis e estimar os determinantes do IRS.
É espectável que todas as variáveis tenham uma forte relação com o IRS. O estudo pretende contribuir com novos conhecimentos à literatura existente e bem como auxiliar os decisores na formulação de políticas tributárias mais eficazes. Os resultados da nossa análise demonstraram que o PIB, o consumo privado, a inflação e a taxa marginal têm um impacto positivo na receita IRS, a troika não tem impacto siginificativo, visto que foi uma variável aleatória, enquanto que o desemprego tem um impacto negativo na receita do IRS.
Esperamos que os resultados obtidos neste estudo possam ser úteis, não apenas para os decisores da política tributaria portuguesa, como também para qualquer pessoa interessada em IRS, pois isso ajudará a compreender as principais variáveis determinantes do IRS e como as receitas do IRS em Portugal podem ser optimizadas.
This dissertation investigates the determinants of Personal Income Tax (PIT) in Portugal using public data from 1998 to 2018. Personal income tax provides a rational pathway for policymakers to close inequality gap in Portugal. In other words, the general objective is to examine the socio-economic predictors of PIT. Six explanatory and control variables, that is, GDP growth, inflation, consumption, unemployment, troika and marginal tax rate will help in testing the objectives of the study. Regression technique (Ordinary Least Square (OLS) method) is used to analyze the relationship between the variables. It is expected that all variables will have a significant link with PIT, but direction of the relationship will be determined through the analysis. The study will add new knowledge to the existing literature and allow authorities formulate effective tax policies. The results of the analysis showed that, GDP, Private consumption, inflation, and Tax marginal maximum all have positive impact on the Portuguese IRS revenue, Troika however, has no significant impact on IRS revenue given that it is a dummy variable, whereas unemployment have negative impact. It is of hope that the results obtained in this study can be useful not only to the Portuguese policy makers but also anyone with interest in PIT as it will help to understand the main determinants of PIT and how PIT revenues in Portugal can be optimized.
This dissertation investigates the determinants of Personal Income Tax (PIT) in Portugal using public data from 1998 to 2018. Personal income tax provides a rational pathway for policymakers to close inequality gap in Portugal. In other words, the general objective is to examine the socio-economic predictors of PIT. Six explanatory and control variables, that is, GDP growth, inflation, consumption, unemployment, troika and marginal tax rate will help in testing the objectives of the study. Regression technique (Ordinary Least Square (OLS) method) is used to analyze the relationship between the variables. It is expected that all variables will have a significant link with PIT, but direction of the relationship will be determined through the analysis. The study will add new knowledge to the existing literature and allow authorities formulate effective tax policies. The results of the analysis showed that, GDP, Private consumption, inflation, and Tax marginal maximum all have positive impact on the Portuguese IRS revenue, Troika however, has no significant impact on IRS revenue given that it is a dummy variable, whereas unemployment have negative impact. It is of hope that the results obtained in this study can be useful not only to the Portuguese policy makers but also anyone with interest in PIT as it will help to understand the main determinants of PIT and how PIT revenues in Portugal can be optimized.
Description
Mestrado em Finanças
Keywords
Determinantes de IRS Receitas de IRS Análise de séries temporais Análise de regressão PIT determinants PIT revenues time-series analysis regression analysis
Pedagogical Context
Citation
Pedrosa, Olga Silvana Tchokohondo (2020). "The determinants of personal income tax in Portugal". Dissertação de Mestrado. Universidade de Lisboa. Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão.
Publisher
Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão