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Innovation in the new silk road : an econometric analysis

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The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), launched by the People's Republic of China in 2013, represents the most ambitious global infrastructure and economic development strategy to date. By channelling substantial investments into transportation, energy, and digital infrastructure across Asia, Europe, and Africa, the BRI has reshaped global trade patterns, promoted regional economic integration, and influenced geopolitical alignments. Yet, its impact on innovative performance remains insufficiently explored. This study provides an empirical assessment of the BRI’s influence on innovative outcomes in participating countries. Employing both descriptive and inferential statistical methods, it analyses a range of indicators - including GDP per capita, intellectual property filings, and the Global Innovation Index (GII) - to ensure methodological rigor and comparability. The findings indicate a positive correlation between BRI participation and increase in patent, trademark, and industrial design filings. However, the analysis also reveals persistent innovation disparities between advanced and developing economies, suggesting limited convergence. In addition, the study critically evaluates the GII as a metric for innovation measurement, highlighting methodological limitations and potential Western-centric biases. To address these issues, it proposes the use of alternative frameworks such as the European Innovation Scoreboard (EIS) and the Knowledge Assessment Methodology (KAM) for future cross-country comparisons. The thesis concludes by emphasising that complementary investments in human capital and business sophistication are essential to unlocking the full innovation potential of the BRI and narrowing global disparities in innovation capacity.

Descrição

Trabalho Final de Mestrado, Economics and Management of Science, Technology and Innovation, ISEG, 2025.

Palavras-chave

Belt and Road Initiative China Innovation Development

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