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Projeto de investigação
External Democratization After War. From the Second to the Third Wave and Beyond
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External Democracy Promotion in Time of Democratic Crisis: Linkage, Leverage, and Domestic Actors’ Diversionary Behaviours
Publication . Castaldo, Antonino
Since the 1990s, the literature on External Democracy Promotion (EDP) expanded exponentially. Despite widely supported conclusions on EDP (in)effectiveness in fostering democratization and preventing democratic backsliding are still lacking, the literature has generated sophisticated explanations of these processes. Among them, Levitsky and Way’s (L&W’s) linkage and leverage theory stands out as one of the most influential. According to Tolstrup, however, their underestimation of domestic agency constitutes a crucial lacuna, which he proposes to fill through the concept of “Gatekeeping Elite” that underlines a significant impact of local actors on the linkage dimension and, consequently, on EDP (in)effectiveness. I believe that Tolstrup’s intuition can be further developed, expanding even more the explanatory power of L&W’s theory. I claim that domestic actors may exert a crucial influence also on the leverage dimension, thanks to “diversionary behaviours” that local elites may use to change external actors’ interests and preferences, persuading them to limit their democratizing pressures and thus reduce their own vulnerability to EDP processes. To assess the plausibility of this claim, I perform a congruence analysis on the recent and crucial case of autocratization in Serbia (EU candidate country), which is not fully explained by the aforementioned models.
Political support and democratic backsliding trends. The strange case of Central and Eastern European countries
Publication . Castaldo, Antonino; Memoli, Vincenzo
During the last decade, democratic backsliding (DB) has become a worrying phenomenon worldwide. This article addresses this topic by focusing on Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). An overview of the literature on DB in this region has identified a relevant lacuna: the lack of attention to the role political support indicators (democratic satisfaction, government trust) may play in DB processes. Testing several hypotheses through different random regression models applied to CEE countries for the period 2005–2021, an unexpected puzzle emerges: contrary to the expectations, we find that a greater government trust contributes to DB. Building on several consolidated findings of the system support theory and the classic democratisation literature, we address this puzzle, identifying temporal phases, mechanisms and causal relations and stressing the relevance of interaction processes among a complex set of causal factors to explain DB processes in CEE.
O Debate Acadêmico Sobre A Crise Da Democracia: Uma Proposta Tipológica
Publication . Castaldo, Antonino
A «crise da democracia» (CdD) tornou-se recentemente um dos temas mais debatidos na literatura sobre democratização. No entanto, esta literatura pode ser considerada embrionária por razões conceptuais, metodológicas e teóricas. De forma a oferecer uma visão sistemática e seletiva dos debates atuais, proponho uma tipologia descritiva que leva tanto em consideração as dimensões objetiva/subjetiva como nacional/internacional da CdD. Concluo que, apesar de o fenómeno existir, é visto hoje em dia como sendo mais preocupante do que aquilo que é sugerido realmente pelas evidências empíricas. No entanto, algumas alterações relevantes nas condições que conduziram ao sucesso da terceira vaga parecem justifi uma perspetiva moderadamente pessimista sobre o futuro da democracia.
Eredità dei Regimi Ibridi e Qualità Democratica. Il Caso della Serbia
Publication . Castaldo, Antonino; Pinna, Alessandra
Back to Competitive Authoritarianism? Democratic Backsliding in Vučić’s Serbia
Publication . Castaldo, Antonino
Despite growing concerns expressed by international organisations about the deterioration of democracy in Vučić’s Serbia, the country has been neglected by the literature on the ‘crisis of democracy’. Using a combined qualitative/quantitative research strategy for detecting changes in regime types, including various V-DEM measures and over three dozen indicators provided by the competitive authoritarian framework, the analysis confirms the recent regression of Vučić’s Serbia to competitive authoritarianism. The peculiar features of the Serbian case—a double transition to and from democracy in less than two decades—appear to support a pessimistic outlook for the future of democracy.
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Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
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OE
Número da atribuição
SFRH/BPD/101442/2014