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- Assessing the current and future suitability to the Asian Tiger mosquito, a dengue and Zika vector, in major cities in EuropePublication . Oliveira, Sandra; Rocha, Jorge; Capinha, César; Sousa, CarlaThe Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus) is a competent vector of numerous diseases, including the dengue and Zika viruses, and public health concerns have encouraged extensive research to model the environmental suitability to the mosquito. We evaluated the level of consensus between published predictions for the European continent and for a set of 65 major cities. We identified consensus hotspots of high and low suitability and the potential variations of suitability levels between present-day and future climatic conditions. A strong inter-model agreement was found regarding the future expansion of the mosquito to northern and eastern Europe. About 83% of cities are predicted as suitable to the establishment of the mosquito in the future, including in northern Europe, and no decrease in suitability is expected. These results show the importance of planning for vector surveillance and control, even in areas where the risk of establishment of Ae. albopictus is currently low.
- Urban population in Europe is increasingly exposed to vector-borne diseases transmitted by the Asian-Tiger mosquitoPublication . Oliveira, Sandra; Rocha, Jorge; Sousa, Carla; Capinha, CésarThe Asian Tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus) entered in Europe through Albania around 40 years ago and, since then, has spread to nearly 30 European countries. In a context of global and climatic changes, it is expected that the environmental suitability for the mosquito will further expand in the future, therefore increasing the probability of disease outbreaks. Urban areas are particularly vulnerable to the spread of vector-borne diseases, because they offer a high number of potential hosts and have a strong interconnection amongst different areas and neighbourhoods, fostered by available urban mobility options. We analysed how much of the urban population in Europe might be exposed to vector-borne diseases transmitted by the Asian-tiger mosquito, focusing on 65 metropolitan areas and other large cities retrieved from the Urban Audit 2018 (EUROSTAT, 2018). In a first step, we evaluated the environmental suitability of each urban area to the establishment of the species, classifying the level of agreement between published predictions of its distribution. We assumed a high level of certainty on suitability (or unsuitability) if at least 70% of the models agreed, and a high uncertainty otherwise. We aggregated the consensus levels in three categories (suitable, uncertain, unsuitable) and retrieved the corresponding level for each urban area assuming the predominant category within its boundaries. The analysis was performed for two timeframes, regarding present-day and future climatic conditions. Urban population estimates for current (2020) and future (2050) conditions were obtained from the Global Population Grid at 1-km2 resolution based on SSP3 (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway), a scenario of societal development that considers an intermediate level of growth regarding demographics, economics, technology and governance, among other features (). Results show that, currently, 51% of the studied urban areas are already suitable to the establishment of the species, mainly located in southern and central Europe and where 60 million people live. Indeed, outbreaks of dengue and chikungunya viruses transmitted by this species have already occurred in Europe since 2010, for example in France, Italy and Croatia. Conversely, 12% of the urban areas are currently unsuitable to the species, and these are mainly located in Scandinavia, the Baltic countries and Poland. In the future, half of these cities will become suitable with high certainty to the presence of the Asian-tiger mosquito, with over 4 million people exposed. By 2050, none of the urban areas will be unsuitable and over 80% will have suitable environmental conditions for the species, including cities like Zurich, Prague, London or Copenhagen. This means that the number of people potentially exposed is estimated to increase to about 110 million. These findings point to the need of adapting public health policies and implementing strategies to prevent the spread of vector-borne diseases in European urban areas.
- Assessing present and future suitability of major European cities to the Asian Tiger mosquito, a vector of dengue and ZikaPublication . Oliveira, Sandra; Rocha, Jorge; Sousa, Carla; Capinha, CésarThe Asian Tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus) is already established in many countries of Europe and cities are particularly vulnerable to the spread of vector-borne diseases. We evaluated the suitability of 62 large urban areas in Europe to the establishment of this mosquito, based on the level of agreement between published predictions of its potential distribution. We classified levels of suitability and uncertainty according to the number of matching models at a 25 km cell size and retrieved the predominant class within the boundaries of each urban area. We analysed 7 independent predictions for current conditions and 5 for future conditions (2050-2080), as well as changes in classes between the two timeframes. Currently, 60% of the cities are suitable to the mosquito, 8% are unsuitable and 32% show high uncertainty. In the future, 87% will be suitable and none will be unsuitable, including cities in the British Isles and Scandinavia, which will have to adapt their public health policies.