ADVANCE/CSG - Working papers
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- Supporting small firms through recessions and recoveriesPublication . Bonfim, Diana; Custódio, Cláudia; Raposo, ClaraWe use variation in the access to a government credit certification program to estimate the financial and real effects of supporting small firms. This program has been implemented during the global financial crisis, but has remained active ever since, allowing us to analyze its effects both during recessions and recoveries. Eligible firms have access to government loan guarantees and a credit quality certification. We estimate real effects using a multidimensional regression discontinuity design. We find that eligible firms borrow more and at lower rates than non-eligible firms, allowing them to increase investment and employment during crises. Industry-level analysis shows reduced productivity heterogeneity in more exposed industries, which is consistent with improved credit allocation. However, when the economy is recovering the effects of the program are less pronounced and centered on the certification component..
- Taxation and public spending efficiency: an international comparisonPublication . Afonso, António; Jalles, João Tovar; Venâncio, AnaThis paper evaluates the relevance of the taxation for public spending efficiency in a sample of OECD economies in the period 2003-2017. First, we compute the data envelopment analysis (DEA) scores and the Malmquist productivity index to measure the change in total factor productivity, the change in efficiency and the change in technology. Second, we explain these newly computed public efficiency scores with tax structures using a reduced-form panel data regression specification. Looking at the period between 2007 and 2017, our main findings are as follows: inputs could be theoretically lower by approximately 32-34%; the Malmquist indices show an overall decrease in technology and in TFP. Crucial for policymaking, we find that expenditure efficiency is negatively associated with taxation, more specifically direct and indirect taxes negatively affect government efficiency performance, and the same is true for social security contributions.