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- Trademarks as an indicator of innovation and industrial changePublication . Mendonça, Sandro; Pereira, Tiago Santos; Godinho, Manuel MiraAs innovation becomes an ever more central issue for the development of firms and world economies, so the need for improved assessments of innovative performance grows more urgent. This paper suggests that trademark analysis can contribute in capturing relevant aspects of innovation phenomena and the process of industrial change. We propose trademarks as a complementary indicator in the portfolio of available empirical tools of innovation studies and industrial dynamics. Our empirical exploration is based on a study of Community Trade Marks, an intellectual property right granted in the European Union, and draws on recent research on trademarking trends in Portugal. Quantitative as well as qualitative data, including survey data from a representative sample of Portuguese manufacturing and services firms, are used to identify the advantages and limitations of this indicator.
- Services innovation and economic performance: an analysis at the firm levelPublication . Lopes, Luisa Ferreira; Godinho, Manuel MiraWe present a model that links innovation effort to economic performance, along the lines of the Crépon et al (1998) model. However, in contrast to Crépon et al, that analyze R&D intensive manufacturing sectors, the present application examines the relationship between innovation and performance for services sectors. This is relevant since much effort has been made to explore that relationship for manufacturing but very little is known about it in the case of services sectors. In trying to fulfill this gap the paper uses firm-level data from the Second Community Innovation Survey to estimate a simultaneous equations model for firms in ten services sectors in Portugal. The present model also differs from former approaches by the specific explanatory structure proposed to estimate the complex relationship between innovation and economic performance. Instead of estimating a direct link between innovation and labor productivity, three specific relationships were put forward. The first of them explains the innovation effort intensity (an input in the innovation process). The second one relates service innovation (an output of the innovation process) to effort intensity and to other explanatory variables. Finally, the third relationship links labor productivity to both service innovation and effort intensity considering also some other influences. Sensitivity analysis of the results to alternative estimation techniques was performed
- Economic centrality, per capita income and human capital - some results at regional levelPublication . Crespo, Nuno; Fontoura, Maria PaulaIt has been shown that countries located .further from global economic activity will have lower levels of per capita income and human capital. We evaluate, for the Portuguese case, the validity of the positive relationship of economic centrality with per capita income and with human capital at the regional level (275 regions). Results show that more central regions - in terms of proximity to the location of the economic activity - appear to have higher levels of per capita income and human capital. Some regions suffer a permanent penalty resulting from their disadvantage as regards the relative geographical position.
- The redistributive impact of the guaranteed minimum income programme in PortugalPublication . Rodrigues, Carlos FarinhaIn this paper we evaluate the impact of the Portuguese Guaranteed Minimum Income Programme (GMI) on the income distribution in Portugal, and discuss its effectiveness and efficiency in fighting poverty and social exclusion in the country. We measure its impact on the distribution of household incomes and poverty, as well as the amount of government expenditure required to finance it. Our results show that 5.3% of households and 6.5% of the population are eligible to receive GMI. The programme has a small but positive impact on reducing inequality. Furthermore, the analysis of the effectiveness of the GMI shows that it has a positive impact on reducing the poverty rate. However, the most important consequence of the GMI is the sharp improvements in the measures of poverty intensity and severity. The efficiency indicators associated with the programme show that 92% of the transfers are awarded to poor people and that 89% of the transfers effectively contribute towards reducing the poverty gap. A very preliminary assessment of the take-up associated with the program shows that only 72 per cent of the families entitled to receive benefits from the programme are actually receiving it.
- Contagion phenomena in financial crises: evidence from the portuguese and spanish exchange rate crises in the early nintiesPublication . Abreu, MargaridaBased on the experience of the Portuguese and Spanish financial crises inthe early 1990s, this paper suggests that the spillover of exchange rate crises may reveal a particular dimension of the financial contagion effect: the presumption of mimetic behaviour by monetary authorities. This paper analyses the evolution of the credibility of the Escudo and the Peseta. We set out to test the existence of a contagion effect: that is, in what way does the polarization of exchange rate expectations in a scenario of devaluation of one currency explain the building up of a similar scenario for the other currency? We also examine the transmission mechanisms of such a scenario. Our results suggest the existence of a one-way contagion effect, of the Escudo by the Peseta. Speculative attacks against the Peseta necessarily give rise to speculative attacks against the Escudo, regardless of the evolution of the ‘fundamentals’ of the Escudo. In this case, the spillover of financial crises could be better understood by the anticipated mimetic behaviour of monetary authorities, rather than by the geographical proximity of the countries in question or by the identical performance of the economies of both
- The voter who wasn't there: referenda, representation and abstentionPublication . Côrte-Real, Paulo P.; Pereira, Paulo TrigoWe analyze single binary-choice voting rules and identify the presence of the No-show paradox in this simple setting, as a consequence of specific turnout or quorum conditions that are included in actual rules. Since these conditions are meant to ensure a representative outcome, we try to formalize this concern and reach our main result: no voting rule can ensure representation if abstention is possible, unless specific restrictive assumptions are made on the preference domain of abstainers. We then focus on the main referendum systems and show that appropriate restrictions do make them compatible with representation. The main purpose of our paper is, however, to provide a tool for referendum design. Unawareness of the fact that defining a representative voting system necessarily entails restrictions on the preference domain of non-voters may lead to the imposition of restrictions that do not satisfy any deliberate criteria and generate such problems as the No-show paradox. We therefore recommend instead that a conscious choice be made on how abstention is to be interpreted and that this choice be used as a tool to derive the corresponding referendum rule
- Positive and negative reciprocity in the labor marketPublication . Pereira, Paulo Trigo; Silva, Nuno; Silva, João Andrade eThis paper reports results of an experiment designed to analyze whether reciprocal behavior survives in a more hostile environment than usually considered in the literature. In fact, positive reciprocity survives in a treatment favoring selfish behavior, although there is a decrease in the deviations from the subgame perfect Nash equilibrium. Besides positive reciprocity there is negative reciprocity in this new treatment. Additionally, this paper highlights the influence of the experimental design, namely the importance of wage cut points, on subjects' behavior.
- Technological convergence in Europe: What are the main issues?Publication . Godinho, Manuel Mira; Mamede, Ricardo PaisThis paper puts forward a basic model of technological catching up. This model represents an attempt to systematise the most relevant factors that, from a perspective of less-favoured regions in Europe, affect the prospects for technological catching up. This process is conceptualised as an interaction between three major factors: the endogenous capabilities accumulated in the less advanced regions; the possibilities these regions have to free ride the knowledge spilling over from the more advanced regions; and, finally, the local conditions that may improve or hinder the development of capabilities and the absorption of externally-produced knowledge.
- The impact of a ‘minimum guaranteed income program’ in PortugalPublication . Gouveia, Miguel; Rodrigues, Carlos FarinhaThe objective of this paper is to estimate the impact of the Portuguese Minimum Guaranteed Income Program (RMIG). We estimate its impact on the distribution of household incomes and poverty as well as the size of government expenditures necessary to finance the program. The baseline adopted is constructed under the assumption of no behavioural responses to the transfer mechanism and of total participation of all eligible households. The simulation shows that 4,8% of domestic households and 5,7% of the population are eligible to receive the RMIG. The Program has a small but positive impact in reducing inequality. However, taking labour supply effects into account results in a smaller gain in inequality reduction. Similarly, we have a small but positive impact on the poverty rate for individuals. This gain, however, is almost cancelled when labour supply reactions are taken into account. However the most important consequences of the RMIG are sharp gains in the measures of poverty severity and intensity. In these dimensions, taking into account the labour supply incentives of the RMIG does not reduce substantially the positive impacts of the Program.
- Kantians, selfish and 'nice' agents: some implications for normative public policyPublication . Pereira, Paulo Trigo; Pontes, José PedroIn this paper we analyze sanctioning policies in international law. We develop a model of international military conflict where the conflicting countries can be a target of international sanctions. These sanctions constitute an equilibrium outcome of an international political market for sanctions, where different countries trade political influence. We show that the level of sanctions in equilibrium is strictly positive but limited, in the sense that higher sanctions would exacerbate the military conflict, not reduce it. We then propose an alternative interpretation to the perceived lack of effectiveness of international sanctions, by showing that the problem might not be one of undersanctioning but of oversanctioning.