Portuguese Economic Journal, 2010, Volume 9, Nº 2
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- Contagion effects of the subprime crisis in the European NYSE Euronext marketsPublication . Horta, Paulo; Mendes, Carlos; Vieira, IsabelThis paper presents three tests of contagion of theUS subprime crisis to the European stock markets of the NYSE Euronext group. Copula models are used to analyse dependence structures between the US and the other stock markets in the sample, in the pre-crisis and in the subprime crisis periods. The first test assesses the existence of contagion on the relevant stock markets’ indices, the second checks the homogeneity of contagion intensities, and the third compares contagion in financial and in industrial sectors’ indices. Results suggest that contagion exists, and is equally felt, in most stock markets and that investors anticipated a spreading of the financial crisis to the indices of industrial sectors, long before such dissemination was observable in the real economy.
- Endogenous timing in a mixed oligopoly with semipublic firmsPublication . Bárcena-Ruiz, Juan Carlos; Begoña Garzón, MaríaAn endogenous order of moves is analyzed in a mixed market where a firm jointly owned by the public sector and private domestic shareholders (a semipublic firm) competes with n private firms. We show that there is an equilibrium in which firms take production decisions simultaneously. This result is strikingly different from that obtained by Pal (Econ Lett 61:181–185, 1998), who shows that when a public firm competes with n private firms all firms producing simultaneously in the same period cannot be sustained as a Subgame Perfect Nash Equilibrium outcome. Our result differs from that of Pal (Econ Lett 61:181–185, 1998) for two reasons: firstly, we consider that there is a semipublic firm rather than a public firm. Secondly, Pal (Econ Lett 61:181– 185, 1998) considers that the public firm is less efficient than private firms while in our paper all firms are equally efficient.
- The information content of reorganization procedures : contagion or competitive effects?Publication . Tseng-Chung, TangBased on a consideration of the whole process from reorganization filing to confirmation, this paper examines the impact of corporate reorganiza- tion on both filing firms and industry rivals, and how it changes the competitive landscape of the industry. Results show that there exist intra-industry informa- tion transfers throughout the whole course of the reorganization proceedings that result in an incessant downward revaluation of the rival firms’ values. Specifically, the market reassesses the prospects of not only the filer but also of its industry rivals simultaneously. Results also show that whether a rival firm has a contagious or a competitive reaction is largely decided by firm-specific rather than industry-specific characteristics.
- What can we learn from the distribution of trade patterns?Publication . Amador, João; Cabral, Sónia; Maria, José R.This paper proposes an empirical framework for analyzing the dynamics of trade specialization, using a symmetric transformation of the standard Balassa (Manch Sch Econ Soc Stud 33(2):99–123, 1965) index and the conditional density estimation methods suggested by Hyndman et al. (J Comput Graph Stat 5(4):315–336, 1996). The framework is implemented using data on the cross-sector export and import specialization of the four initial EU Cohesion countries over the last 40 years. We discuss the importance of studying both the distribution’s external shape and the intra-distribution dynamics and why it is interesting to include imports in the analysis. We find a reduction of the overall degree of export specialization in Portugal,Greece and Spain. Conversely, Ireland has the strongest export specialization and there is evidence of an increase over time. The export intra-distribution dynamics reveal persistence of the specialization status in the four countries, especially for high values of the index. In all countries, the degree of specialization is higher for exports than for imports and intra-distribution dynamics reveal more mobility of import specialization than that of exports.