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Equity research - Volkswagen AG
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Orientador(es)
Resumo(s)
O objetivo deste relatório é estudar e fornecer uma recomendação de investimento para o
Grupo Volkswagen. Este relatório é baseado em informações públicas disponíveis até 29 de
Setembro de 2023 e segue o formato e as orientações sugeridas pelo Instituto CFA.
O Grupo Volkswagen é uma empresa alemã focada no desenvolvimento de veículos,
motores e software automóvel, e na produção e comercialização de automóveis de
passageiros, veículos comerciais leves, camiões, autocarros e motocicletas, bem como em
atividades que compreendem o financiamento a concessionárias e a clientes, financiamento
de veículos leasing, banca direta e seguros, gestão de frotas e serviços de mobilidade.
A motivação para avaliar o Grupo Volkswagen surgiu do meu interesse particular pela
indústria automóvel e pela empresa, que se tem vindo a afirmar como um dos principais
fabricantes de automóveis a nível mundial e o maior fabricante de automóveis da Europa.
A avaliação do Grupo Volkswagen foi calculada utilizando o método Weighted Average Cost
of Capital (WACC) através do Free Cash Flow to the Firm (FCFF), Free Cash Flow to Equity
(FCFE), complementado com o Dividend Discount Model (DDM) e uma Relative Valuation
através de múltiplos.
A recomendação deste relatório é comprar a ação ordinária, com um preço-alvo de €152.48
por ação, no final do ano de 2023, representando um potencial de valorização de 22.28%
quando comparado com a cotação da ação ordinária à época da elaboração deste relatório.
Esta recomendação é baseada num nível de risco médio, uma vez que a empresa opera
numa indústria cíclica, com condições macroeconómicas desafiantes, embora mantendo
uma elevada quota de mercado e margens estáveis com lucros crescentes.
The objective of this report is to study and provide an investment recommendation for Volkswagen Group. This report is based on public information available until 29th of September 2023 and it follows the format and guidance suggested by the CFA Institute. Volkswagen Group is a German company focused in the development of vehicles, engines and vehicle software, and the production and sale of passenger cars, light commercial vehicles, trucks, buses, and motorcycles, as well as in activities that comprise dealer and customer financing, vehicle leasing, direct banking and insurance activities, fleet management and mobility services. The motivation to evaluate Volkswagen Group came from my particular interest in the automotive industry and in the company, which has been asserting itself as one of the world´s leading automobile manufacturers and the largest carmaker in Europe. Volkswagen Group´s valuation was calculated using a Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) method through Free Cash Flow to the Firm (FCFF) and Free Cash Flow to Equity (FCFE), complemented with the Dividend Discount Model (DDM) and a Relative Valuation through multiples. The recommendation of this report is to buy the common share, with a price target of €152.48 per share, in the end of 2023, representing an upside potencial of 22.28% when compared to the price of the common share at the time of this report´s elaboration. This recommendation is based on a medium level of risk, as the company operates in a cyclical industry, with challenging macroeconomic conditions, although maintaining a high market share and stable margins with increasing profits.
The objective of this report is to study and provide an investment recommendation for Volkswagen Group. This report is based on public information available until 29th of September 2023 and it follows the format and guidance suggested by the CFA Institute. Volkswagen Group is a German company focused in the development of vehicles, engines and vehicle software, and the production and sale of passenger cars, light commercial vehicles, trucks, buses, and motorcycles, as well as in activities that comprise dealer and customer financing, vehicle leasing, direct banking and insurance activities, fleet management and mobility services. The motivation to evaluate Volkswagen Group came from my particular interest in the automotive industry and in the company, which has been asserting itself as one of the world´s leading automobile manufacturers and the largest carmaker in Europe. Volkswagen Group´s valuation was calculated using a Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) method through Free Cash Flow to the Firm (FCFF) and Free Cash Flow to Equity (FCFE), complemented with the Dividend Discount Model (DDM) and a Relative Valuation through multiples. The recommendation of this report is to buy the common share, with a price target of €152.48 per share, in the end of 2023, representing an upside potencial of 22.28% when compared to the price of the common share at the time of this report´s elaboration. This recommendation is based on a medium level of risk, as the company operates in a cyclical industry, with challenging macroeconomic conditions, although maintaining a high market share and stable margins with increasing profits.
Descrição
Mestrado Bolonha em Finanças
Palavras-chave
Equity Research Avaliação de Empresas Corporate Finance and Governance Discounted Cash Flow Indústria Automóvel Volkswagen Valuation Valuation
Contexto Educativo
Citação
Pirão, Vasco Filipe de Barros Martins (2023). "Equity research - Volkswagen AG". Dissertação de Mestrado. Universidade de Lisboa. Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão.
Editora
Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão