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Equity research - Millennium BCP
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Orientador(es)
Resumo(s)
O presente relatório de avaliação tem como objetivo emitir uma recomendação de investimento sobre as ações do
Millennium BCP, com referência a 31 de dezembro de 2024, seguindo as diretrizes de investigação do CFA Institute.
O Millennium BCP é uma das maiores e mais proeminentes instituições bancárias em Portugal e o único grupo
bancário português listado na bolsa de valores.
Fundado em 1985, tem vindo a tornar-se um elemento-chave no setor financeiro do país, oferecendo um leque
alargado de serviços bancários e financeiros a particulares e empresas.
O Millennium BCP possui uma presença sólida tanto em Portugal como internacionalmente, com filiais e operações
em vários países, nomeadamente na Polónia e em Moçambique. O Banco concentra o seu negócio nos segmentos
de banca de retalho e investimento, bem como nos serviços internacionais. A sua atual posição estratégica visa
consolidar a força financeira do Grupo, com o objetivo de alcançar uma rentabilidade robusta, índices de capital
sólidos e uma maior competitividade, ao mesmo tempo que procura a sustentabilidade social.
O Millennium BCP tem uma recomendação de compra recomendada, com um preço alvo de 0.34 € com referência
a 2024, representando um potencial de valorização de 55% em relação ao preço das ações em 19 de junho de
2023, que era de 0.22 €. O investimento apresenta um risco moderado devido ao risco inerente ao negócio e ao
risco de controlo, face à atual instabilidade macroeconómica e ao cenário de taxas de juro elevadas.
A subvalorização do Grupo pode ser explicada pelo pessimismo do mercado em relação à evolução
macroeconómica e à crise inflacionista, juntamente com as taxas de juro elevadas e as históricas taxas EURIBOR
associadas. No entanto, o BCP registou um crescimento recorde em 2022, com um aumento do lucro líquido
consolidado de 50.3%, atingindo 207.5 M€, e conseguiu fortalecer os índices de capital, com o índice CET1 a
melhorar para 12.5%, muito acima dos requisitos regulamentares. O ano de 2023 está a revelar-se igualmente bemsucedido - o lucro líquido consolidado do Grupo no primeiro semestre aumentou 104% desde dezembro de 2022,
totalizando 423 M€.
This equity research report aims to express an investment recommendation on Millennium BCP’s stock with reference to December 31st, 2024, following the CFA Institute research report guidelines. Millennium BCP is one of Portugal's largest and most prominent banking institutions and the only Portuguese banking group listed on the stock exchange. Founded in 1985, it has grown to become a key player in the country's financial sector, offering a wide range of banking and financial services to individuals and businesses. Millennium BCP has a strong presence both in Portugal and internationally, with branches and operations in various countries, namely Poland and Mozambique. The Bank focuses its business on the retail and investment banking segments, as well as on international services. Its current strategic positioning consolidates the Group’s financial strength, targeting robust profitability, solid capital ratios and enhanced competitiveness, while seeking social sustainability. Millennium BCP has a strong buy recommendation with a 2024YE price target of 0.34 €, representing a 55% upside potential against the stock price on June 19th, 2023 of 0.22 €. The stock carries a medium risk due to the business’s inherent risk and control risk in the face of the current macroeconomic instability and high-interest rate scenario. The Group’s undervaluation can be explained by the market’s pessimism towards macroeconomic evolution and high inflation crisis, along with high interest rates and associated historically high EURIBOR rates. Still, BCP experienced record growth in 2022, with a 50.3% consolidated net profit increase, reaching 207.5 M€, and was capable of strengthening capital ratios, as the CET1 ratio improved to 12.5%, well above regulatory requirements. 2023 is proving itself to be just as successful – the Group’s first quarter consolidated net profit rose 104% from December 2022, amounting to 423 M€ (BCP Interim Report 2023).
This equity research report aims to express an investment recommendation on Millennium BCP’s stock with reference to December 31st, 2024, following the CFA Institute research report guidelines. Millennium BCP is one of Portugal's largest and most prominent banking institutions and the only Portuguese banking group listed on the stock exchange. Founded in 1985, it has grown to become a key player in the country's financial sector, offering a wide range of banking and financial services to individuals and businesses. Millennium BCP has a strong presence both in Portugal and internationally, with branches and operations in various countries, namely Poland and Mozambique. The Bank focuses its business on the retail and investment banking segments, as well as on international services. Its current strategic positioning consolidates the Group’s financial strength, targeting robust profitability, solid capital ratios and enhanced competitiveness, while seeking social sustainability. Millennium BCP has a strong buy recommendation with a 2024YE price target of 0.34 €, representing a 55% upside potential against the stock price on June 19th, 2023 of 0.22 €. The stock carries a medium risk due to the business’s inherent risk and control risk in the face of the current macroeconomic instability and high-interest rate scenario. The Group’s undervaluation can be explained by the market’s pessimism towards macroeconomic evolution and high inflation crisis, along with high interest rates and associated historically high EURIBOR rates. Still, BCP experienced record growth in 2022, with a 50.3% consolidated net profit increase, reaching 207.5 M€, and was capable of strengthening capital ratios, as the CET1 ratio improved to 12.5%, well above regulatory requirements. 2023 is proving itself to be just as successful – the Group’s first quarter consolidated net profit rose 104% from December 2022, amounting to 423 M€ (BCP Interim Report 2023).
Descrição
Mestrado Bolonha em Finanças
Palavras-chave
Relatório de Avaliação Avaliação Banca Banca de Retalho Millennium BCP Equity Research Valuation Banking Retail Banking
Contexto Educativo
Citação
Vaz, Francisca Gomes Pinheiro Pereira (2023). "Equity research - Millennium BCP". Dissertação de Mestrado. Universidade de Lisboa. Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão.
Editora
Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão