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Implications of climate change on the distribution and conservation of Cabo Verde endemic trees
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Orientador(es)
Resumo(s)
Climate change is one of the most significant challenges to biodiversity conservation, particularly
in dry tropical islands, such as the Cabo Verde archipelago where only three endemic tree taxa
occur – Dracaena draco subsp. caboverdeana, Phoenix atlantica and Sideroxylon marginatum – all
classified as threatened. The main goal of this study was to predict the possible shifts in the
climatically suitable habitat ranges for Cabo Verdean endemic tree species under different climate
change scenarios. We applied species distribution models (SDMs) to the available occurrence
data, and projected the distribution of the three taxa for 2050 and 2080, according to the expected
climate change scenarios. The best models were obtained using the Random Forest algorithm;
they showed that, by 2080, the suitable habitat for Dracaena draco subsp. caboverdeana
and Sideroxylon marginatum will have decreased by 28% and 34%, respectively; conversely, the
suitable habitat will have increased by 59% for Phoenix atlantica, the taxon best adapted to arid
conditions. Additionally, Santo Ant˜ao is the island where endangered trees are more encompassed
by protected areas. Overall, this study contributed with new integrated data to support the design
and implementation of a strategic plan to promote the conservation and ecological value of Cabo
Verde endemic trees in this climatically vulnerable country
Descrição
Palavras-chave
Tropical Islands aridity drought climate change endemic trees ecological modelling protected areas Macaronesia
Contexto Educativo
Citação
Global Ecology and Conservation 34 (2022) e02025
Editora
Elsevier