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Development of a Tool to Conduct a Semi-Quantitative Prescreening Assessment of Environmental & Social Risks of Renewable Energy Projects/Portfolios
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Orientador(es)
Resumo(s)
The early identification of environmental and social (E&S) risks is increasingly critical in renewable energy (RE) project planning, particularly in complex stakeholder and financing contexts. This research develops and validates a semi-quantitative decision-support tool, the E&S Risk Screening Tool, designed to improve consistency, transparency, and efficiency in preliminary E&S risk assessments for RE projects or portfolios. Grounded in internationally recognised standards (IFC, WB, EBRD, IDB), the tool integrates a weighted scoring system based on expert judgment and structured through the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), a Multi-criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) method. Its aim is to support early-stage screening by helping developers, consultants, and financial institutions to identify and compare project risks, and prioritise where deeper analysis is most needed. The methodology involved analysing key international benchmarks, selecting a risk evaluation method, designing a hierarchical structure of E&S indicators, eliciting expert input to weight subfactors, and building a userfriendly Excel-based tool. The tool was applied to a case study comprising two wind farm projects under construction, which was also designed to assess its functionality in comparing risk profiles between and up to three projects. Each project was assessed by two experienced E&S professionals and showed that the tool enables structured and consistent assessments, supports early-stage decision-making, and allows for risk comparisons across portfolios. It balances standardisation with expert discretion, highlighting often under-assessed social risks, such as gender and inclusion-related issues. While limitations were observed, including the need for clearer guidance on subfactor applicability and sensitivity to documentation gaps in early project stages, the tool’s usability, the comparison between projects, and alignment with international standards reinforce its role as a practical complement to more detailed due diligence. It is not intended to replace in-depth studies but to flag areas requiring further attention, as well as offering decision-makers enhanced strategic visibility in identifying the project with comparatively lower E&S risk exposure, thereby supporting prioritisation for further development or submission to international financial institutions during early-stage financing processes.
Descrição
Relatório de estágio de mestrado, Ecologia e Gestão Ambiental , 2025, Universidade de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências
Palavras-chave
Risk Prioritization international environmental and social standards multi-criteria analysis, analytic hierarchy process (AHP) decision-making