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Combined impacts of climate and socio-economic scenarios on irrigation water availability for a dry Mediterranean reservoir

2017-02-20Journal article Open access
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dc.contributor.authorNunes, João Pedro
dc.contributor.authorJacinto, Rita
dc.contributor.authorKeizer, Jacob
dc.date.accessioned2020-07-14T12:50:50Z
dc.date.available2020-07-14T12:50:50Z
dc.date.issued2017-02-20
dc.description.abstractThe impacts of climate and associated socio-economic changes on water availability, including supply and demand, quality, and storage volume, were evaluated for the Vale do Gaio reservoir in southern Portugal, located in a dry Mediterranean climate and already under drought stress. The SWAT model was applied with 6 scenarios for 2071-2100, involving two storylines (A1B and B1) with individual changes in climate (-9% rainfall, increasing in winter by +28 to +30%), socio-economic conditions (an increase in irrigation demand by 11%, and a replacement of cereals and pastures by sunflower), and a combination of both. Most future scenarios resulted in lower water availability, due to lower supply (-19 to -27%) combined with higher irrigation demand (+3 to +21%). This resulted in more years with limited irrigation supplies (presently: 28%; scenarios: 37 to 43%), although limitations were mitigated by lower losses to excess discharge. Land-use changes also decreased quality by increasing P concentrations (+29 to +93%). Impacts were more severe in scenario A1B than in B1, and in combined changes than in climate or socio-economic changes only. Water availability was resilient to climate change, as impacts led only to a moderate aggravation of present-day conditions. Lower future water availability could be addressed by supply and demand management strategies and, in the most extreme scenario, by water transfers from regional water reserves; water quality issues could be addressed through land-use policies. Results also highlighted the importance of taking the characteristics of water supply systems into account when designing adaptation measures for future changes.pt_PT
dc.description.versioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionpt_PT
dc.identifier.citationNunes J.P., Jacinto R., Keizer J.J. 2017. Combined impacts of climate and socio-economic scenarios on irrigation water availability for a dry Mediterranean reservoir. Science of the Total Environment 584-585 (C): 219-233 (DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.01.131).pt_PT
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.01.131pt_PT
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10451/43998
dc.language.isoengpt_PT
dc.peerreviewedyespt_PT
dc.publisherElsevierpt_PT
dc.relation.publisherversionhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.01.131pt_PT
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/pt_PT
dc.subjectPortugalpt_PT
dc.subjectSocioeconomic Factorspt_PT
dc.subjectWaterpt_PT
dc.subjectAgricultural Irrigationpt_PT
dc.subjectClimate Changept_PT
dc.subjectWater Supplypt_PT
dc.titleCombined impacts of climate and socio-economic scenarios on irrigation water availability for a dry Mediterranean reservoirpt_PT
dc.typejournal article
dspace.entity.typePublication
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT/SFRH/SFRH%2FBPD%2F87571%2F2012/PT
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT/SFRH/SFRH%2FBPD%2F39721%2F2007/PT
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT/5876/UID%2FAMB%2F50017%2F2013/PT
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT/5876-PPCDTI/PTDC%2FAAC-AMB%2F100520%2F2008/PT
oaire.citation.endPage233pt_PT
oaire.citation.startPage219pt_PT
oaire.citation.titleScience of The Total Environmentpt_PT
oaire.citation.volume584-585pt_PT
oaire.fundingStreamSFRH
oaire.fundingStreamSFRH
oaire.fundingStream5876
oaire.fundingStream5876-PPCDTI
person.familyNameCarvalho Nunes
person.familyNameJacinto
person.familyNameKeizer
person.givenNameJoão Pedro
person.givenNameRita
person.givenNameJan Jacob
person.identifierA-5497-2011
person.identifier2641191
person.identifierE-8938-2015
person.identifier.ciencia-id2911-5CBD-5FA9
person.identifier.ciencia-idE611-7A2E-8CC0
person.identifier.ciencia-id5614-6623-BF58
person.identifier.orcid0000-0002-0164-249X
person.identifier.orcid0000-0002-0504-6388
person.identifier.orcid0000-0003-4833-0415
person.identifier.ridJ-9270-2014
person.identifier.scopus-author-id7102878032
person.identifier.scopus-author-id7005301640
project.funder.identifierhttp://doi.org/10.13039/501100001871
project.funder.identifierhttp://doi.org/10.13039/501100001871
project.funder.identifierhttp://doi.org/10.13039/501100001871
project.funder.identifierhttp://doi.org/10.13039/501100001871
project.funder.nameFundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
project.funder.nameFundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
project.funder.nameFundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
project.funder.nameFundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
rcaap.rightsopenAccesspt_PT
rcaap.typearticlept_PT
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