Combined impacts of climate and socio-economic scenarios on irrigation water availability for a dry Mediterranean reservoir

Nunes, João Pedro; Jacinto, Rita; Keizer, Jacob

http://hdl.handle.net/10451/43998

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Authors

Nunes, João Pedro

Jacinto, Rita

Keizer, Jacob

Abstract(s)

The impacts of climate and associated socio-economic changes on water availability, including supply and demand, quality, and storage volume, were evaluated for the Vale do Gaio reservoir in southern Portugal, located in a dry Mediterranean climate and already under drought stress. The SWAT model was applied with 6 scenarios for 2071-2100, involving two storylines (A1B and B1) with individual changes in climate (-9% rainfall, increasing in winter by +28 to +30%), socio-economic conditions (an increase in irrigation demand by 11%, and a replacement of cereals and pastures by sunflower), and a combination of both. Most future scenarios resulted in lower water availability, due to lower supply (-19 to -27%) combined with higher irrigation demand (+3 to +21%). This resulted in more years with limited irrigation supplies (presently: 28%; scenarios: 37 to 43%), although limitations were mitigated by lower losses to excess discharge. Land-use changes also decreased quality by increasing P concentrations (+29 to +93%). Impacts were more severe in scenario A1B than in B1, and in combined changes than in climate or socio-economic changes only. Water availability was resilient to climate change, as impacts led only to a moderate aggravation of present-day conditions. Lower future water availability could be addressed by supply and demand management strategies and, in the most extreme scenario, by water transfers from regional water reserves; water quality issues could be addressed through land-use policies. Results also highlighted the importance of taking the characteristics of water supply systems into account when designing adaptation measures for future changes.

Keywords

Portugal Socioeconomic Factors Water Agricultural Irrigation Climate Change Water Supply

URI

http://hdl.handle.net/10451/43998

Citation

Nunes J.P., Jacinto R., Keizer J.J. 2017. Combined impacts of climate and socio-economic scenarios on irrigation water availability for a dry Mediterranean reservoir. Science of the Total Environment 584-585 (C): 219-233 (DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.01.131).