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Abstract(s)
Esta tese de Doutoramento procura investigar o impacto da intensificação do
processo de integração económica Europeia ocorrido desde meados dos anos 1990 nos
denominados estados-membros da Periferia (Espanha, Grécia, França, Itália e Portugal),
com particular destaque para o estabelecimento da União Económica Monetária (UEM).
A integração económica Europeia visava e deveria em teoria contribuir para um
aumento da taxa de crescimento económico e a convergência económica real dos estadosmembros
menos desenvolvidos da UEM, ao promover um aumento da concorrência e da
taxa de crescimento do comércio internacional entre estados-membros, ao criar novas
oportunidades de expansão de negócios e ao facilitar a transferência de tecnologia e
conhecimento.
A partir de 1992, com o Tratado de Maastricht, a União Europeia (UE) criou as bases
para o estabelecimento de uma moeda única, o euro, e uma política monetária comum
através do Banco Central Europeu (BCE).
Contudo, a crescente integração económica das últimas décadas foi acompanhada
por um processo de crescente polarização económica, social e política no seio da UE e da
Área do Euro, exacerbada pela Grande Recessão de 2007-2009 e pela Crise das Dívidas
Soberanas Europeia de 2010-2012, aumentando as desigualdades de rendimento entre os
países e resultando numa trajetória de divergência das taxas de crescimento dos mesmos.
No mesmo período, do ponto de vista social, verificou-se uma tendência de queda do peso
dos salários (aumento do peso dos rendimentos de capital), em paralelo com uma
tendência de estagnação económicas.
Os quatro ensaios desta tese de doutoramento apresentam uma linha condutora
comum, argumentando que falhas de governação e da arquitetura económica da União
Económica e Monetária (UEM), a perda de importantes instrumentos de política
económica (como sejam a política monetária e cambial) ou ainda a a definição de regras
europeias de política orçamental, podem ter contribuído para um fraco ou mesmo
negativo desempenho económico dos estados-membros da periferia da Área do Euro.
No primeiro ensaio procedemos a uma caracterização do desempenho económico (negativo) dos estados-membros da periferia da Área do Euro desde meados da década
de 1990 até ao período pré-covid-19 e a uma revisão da literatura sobre os factores
explicativos para este desempenho económico. No entanto, este ensaio investiga e propõe
um fator explicativo adicional, pouco explorado na literatura, o designado efeito de
Doença Holandesa, que contribuiu para uma tendência de apreciação da taxa de câmbio
real interna e uma alteração estrutural do perfil de especialização destas economias. Ao
contrário do efeito de Doença Holandesa original, esta situação não se deveu à descoberta
de campos de gás natural e posterior exportação desta matéria-prima. Pelo contrário, este
ensaio argumenta que o principal fator que despoletou o efeito de Doença Holandesa foi
a disponibilidade de fluxos de capitais externos de volume em teoria ilimitados associados
à participação desses estados periféricos na UEM desde meados dos anos 1990s.
Paradoxalmente, esse choque aparentemente favorável, que resultou numa redução das
taxas de juro reais e num aumento do investimento privado e público, teve os efeitos
adversos acima identificados.
O segundo ensaio, que recorre ao Modelo de Crescimento restringido pela Balança
de Pagamentos e ao Modelo de Convergência/Divergência de Produtividade de Ali e
Pérez-Caldentey (2011, 2007), estima a possibilidade de convergência económica e de
produtividade dos estados-membros da periferia da Área do Euro face aos estadosmembros
do centro da Área do Euro (e face a todos os países da Área do Euro). O ensaio
conclui que no período pós crise de 2009, estes países apresentaram uma tendência de
divergência de produtividade devido aos menores retornos crescentes à escala. Entre os
fatores que podem ter contribuído para menores taxas de crescimento da produtividade
incluem-se a implementação de políticas de austeridade orçamental (mais intensa no
primeiro grupo de países), ou a mudança estrutural verificada neste grupo de países, com
um aumento da preponderância de setores de reduzida intensidade tecnológica, como o
turismo ou o imobiliário.
No terceiro ensaio, através da utilização do método de controlo sintético,
procedemos a uma análise contrafactual do efeito da UEM na Posição de Investimento
Internacional Líquida (PIIL) dos estados-membros da periferia da Área do Euro.
Concluímos que em 2010, os PIIL destes países apresentariam uma melhoria acentuada
face à situação verificada estimada, em média ponderada, em 42% do PIB de 2010. O
ensaio argumenta que as diferenças de estruturas produtivas na Área do Euro traduzemse
em transferências orçamentais implícitas dos estados-membros da periferia para os estados-membros do Centro que não sendo compensadas por transferências orçamentais
explícitas no sentido oposto, resultam em desequilíbrios externos recorrentes com a
concomitante deterioração da PIIL dos estados-membros da periferia.
No quarto ensaio, investigamos dois factos observados na generalidade das
economias desenvolvidas. Em primeiro lugar, estas economias têm apresentado nas
últimas décadas uma tendência de crescimento económico cada mais vez mais anémico,
ao mesmo tempo que o peso dos salários no produto tem também diminuído. Aplicando
ao caso da economia Portuguesa, procuramos avaliar empiricamente a relação entre o
crescimento do peso dos salários e o crescimento económico, através de uma análise
econométrica de séries temporais. O ensaio concluí que o crescimento do peso dos
salários contribui para uma aceleração do crescimento económico porque os efeitos
positivos no consumo privado mais do que se sobrepõem aos efeitos adversos no consumo
privado e nas exportações líquidas.
This doctoral thesis seeks to investigate the impact of the intensification of the European economic integration process that has taken place since the mid-1990s on the so-called peripheral member-states (Spain, Greece, France, Italy, and Portugal), with particular emphasis on the establishment of the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). European economic integration aimed, and theoretically should have contributed, to increasing the economic growth rate and real economic convergence of the less developed EMU member-states by promoting increased competition, the growth of international trade among member-states, creating new business expansion opportunities, and facilitating the transfer of technology and knowledge. Starting in 1992, with the Maastricht Treaty, the European Union (EU) laid the foundations for the establishment of a single currency, the euro, and a common monetary policy through the European Central Bank (ECB). However, the increasing economic integration of recent decades has been accompanied by a process of growing economic, social, and political polarization within the EU and the Euro Area, exacerbated by the Great Recession of 2007-2009 and the European Sovereign Debt Crisis of 2010-2012. This has heightened income inequalities between countries and resulted in a trajectory of diverging growth rates among them. During this same period, from a social perspective, there has been a trend of declining wage shares (with an increasing share of capital income) alongside economic stagnation. The four essays in this doctoral thesis share a common thread, arguing that governance failures and the economic architecture of the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU), the loss of important economic policy instruments (such as monetary and exchange rate policies), and the establishment of European fiscal policy rules may have contributed to the poor or even negative economic performance of the peripheral memberstates of the Euro Area. In the first essay, we characterize the (negative) economic performance of the Euro Area peripheral member-states from the mid-1990s until the pre-COVID-19 period and review the literature on the factors explaining this economic performance. However, this essay investigates and proposes an additional explanatory factor, less explored in the literature: the so-called Dutch Disease effect, which contributed to a trend of internal real exchange rate appreciation and a structural shift in the specialization profile of these economies. Unlike the original Dutch Disease effect, this situation was not due to the discovery of natural gas fields and subsequent export of this raw material. On the contrary, this essay argues that the main factor triggering the Dutch Disease effect was the availability of theoretically unlimited volumes of external capital flows associated with these peripheral states' participation in the EMU since the mid-1990s. Paradoxically, this seemingly favorable shock, which resulted in lower real interest rates and increased private and public investment, had the adverse effects identified above. The second essay, drawing on the Balance-of-Payments-Constrained Growth Model and the Ali and Pérez-Caldentey (2011, 2007) Productivity Convergence/Divergence Model, estimates the possibility of economic and productivity convergence of the Euro Area peripheral member-states relative to the core member-states (and relative to all Euro Area countries). The essay concludes that in the post-2009 crisis period, these countries showed a trend of productivity divergence due to lower increasing returns to scale. Factors that may have contributed to lower productivity growth rates include the implementation of fiscal austerity policies (more intense in the first group of countries) or the structural shift observed in this group of countries, with an increased prevalence of low-tech sectors such as tourism or real estate. In the third essay, using the synthetic control method, we conduct a counterfactual analysis of the EMU's effect on the Net International Investment Position (NIIP) of the Euro Area peripheral member-states. We conclude that by 2010, these countries' NIIPs would have shown a significant improvement compared to the actual situation, estimated at an average of 42% of 2010 GDP. The essay argues that differences in productive structures within the Euro Area translate into implicit fiscal transfers from peripheral member-states to core member-states. These, not being compensated by explicit fiscal transfers in the opposite direction, result in recurring external imbalances with the concomitant deterioration of the NIIP of the peripheral member-states. In the fourth essay, we investigate two observed phenomena in most developed economies. First, these economies have shown a trend toward increasingly anemic economic growth in recent decades, while the share of wages in GDP has also declined. Applying this to the case of the Portuguese economy, we empirically assess the relationship between the growth of the wage share and economic growth through a timeseries econometric analysis. The essay concludes that wage share growth contributes to an acceleration of economic growth because the positive effects on private consumption more than offset the adverse effects on private investment and net exports.
This doctoral thesis seeks to investigate the impact of the intensification of the European economic integration process that has taken place since the mid-1990s on the so-called peripheral member-states (Spain, Greece, France, Italy, and Portugal), with particular emphasis on the establishment of the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). European economic integration aimed, and theoretically should have contributed, to increasing the economic growth rate and real economic convergence of the less developed EMU member-states by promoting increased competition, the growth of international trade among member-states, creating new business expansion opportunities, and facilitating the transfer of technology and knowledge. Starting in 1992, with the Maastricht Treaty, the European Union (EU) laid the foundations for the establishment of a single currency, the euro, and a common monetary policy through the European Central Bank (ECB). However, the increasing economic integration of recent decades has been accompanied by a process of growing economic, social, and political polarization within the EU and the Euro Area, exacerbated by the Great Recession of 2007-2009 and the European Sovereign Debt Crisis of 2010-2012. This has heightened income inequalities between countries and resulted in a trajectory of diverging growth rates among them. During this same period, from a social perspective, there has been a trend of declining wage shares (with an increasing share of capital income) alongside economic stagnation. The four essays in this doctoral thesis share a common thread, arguing that governance failures and the economic architecture of the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU), the loss of important economic policy instruments (such as monetary and exchange rate policies), and the establishment of European fiscal policy rules may have contributed to the poor or even negative economic performance of the peripheral memberstates of the Euro Area. In the first essay, we characterize the (negative) economic performance of the Euro Area peripheral member-states from the mid-1990s until the pre-COVID-19 period and review the literature on the factors explaining this economic performance. However, this essay investigates and proposes an additional explanatory factor, less explored in the literature: the so-called Dutch Disease effect, which contributed to a trend of internal real exchange rate appreciation and a structural shift in the specialization profile of these economies. Unlike the original Dutch Disease effect, this situation was not due to the discovery of natural gas fields and subsequent export of this raw material. On the contrary, this essay argues that the main factor triggering the Dutch Disease effect was the availability of theoretically unlimited volumes of external capital flows associated with these peripheral states' participation in the EMU since the mid-1990s. Paradoxically, this seemingly favorable shock, which resulted in lower real interest rates and increased private and public investment, had the adverse effects identified above. The second essay, drawing on the Balance-of-Payments-Constrained Growth Model and the Ali and Pérez-Caldentey (2011, 2007) Productivity Convergence/Divergence Model, estimates the possibility of economic and productivity convergence of the Euro Area peripheral member-states relative to the core member-states (and relative to all Euro Area countries). The essay concludes that in the post-2009 crisis period, these countries showed a trend of productivity divergence due to lower increasing returns to scale. Factors that may have contributed to lower productivity growth rates include the implementation of fiscal austerity policies (more intense in the first group of countries) or the structural shift observed in this group of countries, with an increased prevalence of low-tech sectors such as tourism or real estate. In the third essay, using the synthetic control method, we conduct a counterfactual analysis of the EMU's effect on the Net International Investment Position (NIIP) of the Euro Area peripheral member-states. We conclude that by 2010, these countries' NIIPs would have shown a significant improvement compared to the actual situation, estimated at an average of 42% of 2010 GDP. The essay argues that differences in productive structures within the Euro Area translate into implicit fiscal transfers from peripheral member-states to core member-states. These, not being compensated by explicit fiscal transfers in the opposite direction, result in recurring external imbalances with the concomitant deterioration of the NIIP of the peripheral member-states. In the fourth essay, we investigate two observed phenomena in most developed economies. First, these economies have shown a trend toward increasingly anemic economic growth in recent decades, while the share of wages in GDP has also declined. Applying this to the case of the Portuguese economy, we empirically assess the relationship between the growth of the wage share and economic growth through a timeseries econometric analysis. The essay concludes that wage share growth contributes to an acceleration of economic growth because the positive effects on private consumption more than offset the adverse effects on private investment and net exports.
Description
Doutoramento em Economia
Keywords
Estados-membros periféricos da Área do Euro Doença Holandesa Falhas institucionais e de arquitetura da União Económica e Monetária Método de Controlo Sintético Regime de Crescimento Liderado pelos Salários Euro-Area peripheral member-states Dutch Disease Institutional and architectural failures of the Economic and Monetary Union Synthetic Control Method Wage-Led Growth Regime
Pedagogical Context
Citation
Alcobia, João André Ferreira (2024). "Essays on macroeconomics and structural change in the Eurozone". Tese de Doutoramento. Universidade de Lisboa. Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão.
Publisher
Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão