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A tecnologia blockchain cumprirá com as suas promessas : uma abordagem através da análise bibliométrica e do ciclo de vida tecnológico
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A tecnologia Blockchain é considerada uma das tecnologias com maior potencial disruptivo. Porém, passados 14 anos desde a criação da criptomoeda Bitcoin que utiliza blockchain, ainda estamos longe de um uso generalizado desta tecnologia. Com este trabalho pretende-se avaliar o estado da tecnologia através de uma análise bibliométrica e desse modo obter um descritivo do seu ciclo de vida tecnológico. Tal permitiu observar o estádio atual da tecnologia e obter uma previsão do seu comportamento para os próximos anos. Foram extraídos 22.253 artigos da base de dados WoS. Obtiveram-se os seguintes resultados: (i) uma enorme predominância na publicação, instituições e autores com origem na China; (ii) a evolução da tecnologia desde a sua primeira aplicação, seguido da sua expansão para aplicações financeiras – Blockchain 1.0, a transição para a Blockchain 2.0, e finalmente a consolidação da Blockchain 2.0 e exploração de ligações com a indústria 4.0 – Blockchain 3.0; (iii) o declínio da investigação relacionada com as criptomoedas, a ascensão da tecnologia Blockchain como tema base e a exploração da ligação com temas como a segurança e a IoT; (iv) a tecnologia Blockchain terá um período de crescimento até sensivelmente 2025, contudo não se verificando a emergência de um design dominante. Esta metodologia poderá ser aplicada a outras tecnologias com o intuito de melhor informar decisores empresariais e políticos.
Blockchain has been perceived as a technology with enormous disruptive potential. However, despite Bitcoin, a blockchain-based cryptocurrency, having been launched already 14 years ago, the use of blockchain is still far from pervasive. With this study we intend to evaluate blockchain technology through a bibliometric analysis to map its technological life cycle. Such mapping has allowed to assess the current status of this technology and infer about its possible evolution over the near future. For this purpose, 22.253 articles were extracted from the WoS database. The following results were obtained: (i) publications, institutions, and authors from China are highly dominant; (ii) the data allows for the tracking of the evolution of this technology, since its first application, followed by its expansion into financial applications, namely from Blockchain 1.0, through transition to Blockchain 2.0, up to consolidation of Blockchain 2.0 in connection with industry 4.0, up to the most recent Blockchain 3.0; (iii) we found a decline in the research activity connected with cryptocurrencies, with the rise of blockchain technology as a base theme, and the exploration of its links with topics such as security and IoT; (iv) Blockchain technology will keep its growth path until approximately 2025, although the emergence of a dominant design still not being evident. The methodology that was implemented in this study can be applied to other technologies. Further it displays potential to better inform business and political decision-makers.
Blockchain has been perceived as a technology with enormous disruptive potential. However, despite Bitcoin, a blockchain-based cryptocurrency, having been launched already 14 years ago, the use of blockchain is still far from pervasive. With this study we intend to evaluate blockchain technology through a bibliometric analysis to map its technological life cycle. Such mapping has allowed to assess the current status of this technology and infer about its possible evolution over the near future. For this purpose, 22.253 articles were extracted from the WoS database. The following results were obtained: (i) publications, institutions, and authors from China are highly dominant; (ii) the data allows for the tracking of the evolution of this technology, since its first application, followed by its expansion into financial applications, namely from Blockchain 1.0, through transition to Blockchain 2.0, up to consolidation of Blockchain 2.0 in connection with industry 4.0, up to the most recent Blockchain 3.0; (iii) we found a decline in the research activity connected with cryptocurrencies, with the rise of blockchain technology as a base theme, and the exploration of its links with topics such as security and IoT; (iv) Blockchain technology will keep its growth path until approximately 2025, although the emergence of a dominant design still not being evident. The methodology that was implemented in this study can be applied to other technologies. Further it displays potential to better inform business and political decision-makers.
Descrição
Mestrado Bolonha em Economia e Gestão de Ciência, Tecnologia e Inovação
Palavras-chave
Blockchain Bitcoin Análise Bibliométrica Ciclo de Vida Tecnológico Tecnologias Emergentes Bibliometric Analysis Technology Life Cycles Emerging Technologies
Contexto Educativo
Citação
Clem, Victor Constantin (2022). “A tecnologia blockchain cumprirá com as suas promessas : uma abordagem através da análise bibliométrica e do ciclo de vida tecnológico”. Dissertação de Mestrado. Universidade de Lisboa. Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão
Editora
Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão