A carregar...
Publicação
A curva de rendimentos e a política orçamental
| Nome: | Descrição: | Tamanho: | Formato: | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.61 MB | Adobe PDF |
Orientador(es)
Resumo(s)
0 presente trabalho insere-se no actual contexto de contenção orçamental nas economias europeias, na preparação para a terceira fase da União Económica e Monetária.
Sao analisados os efeitos de politicas orçamentais restritivas, pennanentes e temporárias, antecipadas e não antecipadas, sobre a curva de rendimentos. Consideram-se três modelos dinâmicos, dois do tipo ISILM, urn em economia fechada e um em economia aberta, e urn modelo de optimização intertemporal, em economia fechada.
A partir da evolução temporal das taxas de juro de curto e de Iongo prazos determinada no contexto de cada modelo, na sequência de cada choque específico, são traçados os perfis das curvas de rendimentos resultantes.
Apenas o modelo tipo IS/LM en economia fechada parece indicar eficácia da politica orçamental, sendo a ineficácia nos outros modelos resultante de equivalência ricardiana, no modelo de optimização intertemporal, e de crowding-out total pelas exportações liquidas no modelo IS/LM em economia aberta.
A conclusão mais importante e que uma politica orçamental restritiva temporária não produz efeitos sobre o equilíbrio da economia de Iongo prazo.
Recently, most of the European economies have been pursuing fiscal discipline, in preparing for the third stage of the Economic and Monetary Union. The effects of restrictive fiscal policies, both pennanent and temporary, antecipated and non-antecipated, on the yield curve are analysed here. In order to do so, the impact of a fiscal contraccion is studied within three different dynamic models, two of which being IS/LM type, and the third considering an intertemporal optimization framework. One of the ISILM type models, being in an open economy, asswnes flexibility of the exchange rate. From the term structure of interest rates derived in each case, different yield curves are obtained, depending upon the particular disturbance subject to analysis. Only the IS/LM model in a closed economy seems to indicate some effectiveness of the fiscal policy. In the intertemporal optimization context problems of ricardian equivalence arise from the assumptions, while in the ISILM model of an open economy, changes in the public spending level are totally crowded out by net exports.
Recently, most of the European economies have been pursuing fiscal discipline, in preparing for the third stage of the Economic and Monetary Union. The effects of restrictive fiscal policies, both pennanent and temporary, antecipated and non-antecipated, on the yield curve are analysed here. In order to do so, the impact of a fiscal contraccion is studied within three different dynamic models, two of which being IS/LM type, and the third considering an intertemporal optimization framework. One of the ISILM type models, being in an open economy, asswnes flexibility of the exchange rate. From the term structure of interest rates derived in each case, different yield curves are obtained, depending upon the particular disturbance subject to analysis. Only the IS/LM model in a closed economy seems to indicate some effectiveness of the fiscal policy. In the intertemporal optimization context problems of ricardian equivalence arise from the assumptions, while in the ISILM model of an open economy, changes in the public spending level are totally crowded out by net exports.
Descrição
Mestrado em Economia Monetária e Financeira
Palavras-chave
Política orçamental Curva de rendimentos Modelos dinâmicos Mecanismos de transmissão Eficácia das políticas Fiscal policy Yield curve Dynamic models Transmission mecanisms Policy efectiveness
Contexto Educativo
Citação
Dias, Maria Luís Casanova Morgado