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Big data help to define climate change challenges for the typical Mediterranean species Cistus ladanifer L.

2023Journal article Open access
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dc.contributor.authorAlmeida, Alice Maria
dc.contributor.authorRibeiro, Maria Margarida
dc.contributor.authorFerreira, Miguel R.
dc.contributor.authorRoque, Natália
dc.contributor.authorQuintela-Sabarís, Celestino
dc.contributor.authorFernandez, Paulo
dc.date.accessioned2023-10-30T15:44:16Z
dc.date.available2023-10-30T15:44:16Z
dc.date.issued2023
dc.description.abstractClimate change’s huge impact on Mediterranean species’ habitat suitability and spatial and temporal distribution in the coming decades is expected. The present work aimed to reconstruct rockrose (Cistus ladanifer L.) historical and future spatial distribution, a typically Mediterranean species with abundant occurrence in North Africa, Iberian Peninsula, and Southern France. The R ensemble modeling approach was made using the biomod2 package to assess changes in the spatial distribution of the species in the Last Interglacial (LIG), the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), and the Middle Holocene (MH), in the present, and in the future (for the years 2050 and 2070), considering two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). The current species potential distribution was modeled using 2,833 occurrences, six bioclimatic variables, and four algorithms, Generalized Linear Model (GLM), MaxEnt, Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS), and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN). Two global climate models (GCMs), CCSM4 and MRI-CGCM3, were used to forecast past and future suitability. The potential area of occurrence of the species is equal to 15.8 and 14.1% of the study area for current and LIG conditions, while it decreased to 3.8% in the LGM. The species’ presence diaminished more than half in the RCP 4.5 (to 6.8% in 2050 and 7% in 2070), and a too low figure (2.2%) in the worst-case scenario (RCP 8.5) for 2070. The results suggested that the current climatic conditions are the most suitable for the species’ occurrence and that future changes in environmental conditions may lead to the loss of suitable habitats, especially in the worst-case scenario. The information unfolded by this study will help to understand future predictable desertification in the Mediterranean region and to help policymakers to implement possible measures for biodiversity maintenance and desertification avoidance.pt_PT
dc.description.versioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionpt_PT
dc.identifier.citationAlmeida AM, Ribeiro MM, Ferreira MR, Roque N, Quintela-Sabarís C and Fernandez P (2023) Big data help to define climate change challenges for the typical Mediterranean species Cistus ladanifer L. Front. Ecol. Evol. 11:1136224pt_PT
dc.identifier.doi10.3389/fevo.2023.1136224pt_PT
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/29158
dc.language.isoengpt_PT
dc.peerreviewedyespt_PT
dc.publisherFrontierspt_PT
dc.relationForest Research Centre
dc.relationResearch Center in Natural Resources, Environment and Society
dc.relationMediterranean Institute for Agriculture, Environment and Development
dc.relation.publisherversionfrontiersin.orgpt_PT
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/pt_PT
dc.subjectRock rosept_PT
dc.subjectspecies distribution modelingpt_PT
dc.subjectbiomod2pt_PT
dc.subjectensemble modelingpt_PT
dc.subjectclimate changept_PT
dc.titleBig data help to define climate change challenges for the typical Mediterranean species Cistus ladanifer L.pt_PT
dc.typejournal article
dspace.entity.typePublication
oaire.awardTitleForest Research Centre
oaire.awardTitleResearch Center in Natural Resources, Environment and Society
oaire.awardTitleMediterranean Institute for Agriculture, Environment and Development
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT/6817 - DCRRNI ID/UIDB%2F00239%2F2020/PT
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT/6817 - DCRRNI ID/UIDB%2F00681%2F2020/PT
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT/6817 - DCRRNI ID/UIDB%2F05183%2F2020/PT
oaire.citation.startPageArticle number 1136224pt_PT
oaire.citation.titleFrontiers in Ecology and Evolutionpt_PT
oaire.citation.volume11pt_PT
oaire.fundingStream6817 - DCRRNI ID
oaire.fundingStream6817 - DCRRNI ID
oaire.fundingStream6817 - DCRRNI ID
person.familyNameRibeiro
person.givenNameMaria Margarida
person.identifier349097
person.identifier.ciencia-idAD12-4D32-7A48
person.identifier.orcid0000-0003-4684-1262
person.identifier.ridM-4235-2013
person.identifier.scopus-author-id7201715611
project.funder.identifierhttp://doi.org/10.13039/501100001871
project.funder.identifierhttp://doi.org/10.13039/501100001871
project.funder.identifierhttp://doi.org/10.13039/501100001871
project.funder.nameFundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
project.funder.nameFundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
project.funder.nameFundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
rcaap.rightsopenAccesspt_PT
rcaap.typearticlept_PT
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relation.isAuthorOfPublication.latestForDiscovery611828c6-e1cd-4fe3-9f82-cf6f076860a9
relation.isProjectOfPublication56bd0ae9-f8da-4344-b9a2-f633d4f68b89
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