Advisor(s)
Abstract(s)
Climate change’s huge impact on Mediterranean species’ habitat suitability and
spatial and temporal distribution in the coming decades is expected. The present
work aimed to reconstruct rockrose (Cistus ladanifer L.) historical and future
spatial distribution, a typically Mediterranean species with abundant occurrence
in North Africa, Iberian Peninsula, and Southern France. The R ensemble
modeling approach was made using the biomod2 package to assess changes in
the spatial distribution of the species in the Last Interglacial (LIG), the Last Glacial
Maximum (LGM), and the Middle Holocene (MH), in the present, and in the future
(for the years 2050 and 2070), considering two Representative Concentration
Pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). The current species potential distribution was
modeled using 2,833 occurrences, six bioclimatic variables, and four algorithms,
Generalized Linear Model (GLM), MaxEnt, Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines
(MARS), and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN). Two global climate models (GCMs),
CCSM4 and MRI-CGCM3, were used to forecast past and future suitability. The
potential area of occurrence of the species is equal to 15.8 and 14.1% of the study
area for current and LIG conditions, while it decreased to 3.8% in the LGM. The
species’ presence diaminished more than half in the RCP 4.5 (to 6.8% in 2050
and 7% in 2070), and a too low figure (2.2%) in the worst-case scenario (RCP 8.5)
for 2070. The results suggested that the current climatic conditions are the most
suitable for the species’ occurrence and that future changes in environmental
conditions may lead to the loss of suitable habitats, especially in the worst-case
scenario. The information unfolded by this study will help to understand future
predictable desertification in the Mediterranean region and to help policymakers
to implement possible measures for biodiversity maintenance and desertification
avoidance.
Description
Keywords
Rock rose species distribution modeling biomod2 ensemble modeling climate change
Pedagogical Context
Citation
Almeida AM, Ribeiro MM, Ferreira MR, Roque N, Quintela-Sabarís C and Fernandez P (2023) Big data help to define climate change challenges for the typical Mediterranean species Cistus ladanifer L. Front. Ecol. Evol. 11:1136224
Publisher
Frontiers