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Global source attribution of foodborne hazards using analysis of outbreak data
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Orientador(es)
Resumo(s)
As doenças de origem alimentar continuam a ser um desafio para a saúde pública mundial, estando associadas a elevadas morbilidade e mortalidade. A atribuição precisa de fontes é crucial para orientar intervenções baseadas em risco e fortalecer políticas de segurança dos alimentos. Este estudo estimou a contribuição global e regional de diferentes fontes alimentares, recorrendo a dados de surtos documentados entre 2010 e 2019. Foram analisados quase 10.000 surtos causados por 20 agentes patogénicos, associados a alimentos simples, de 46 países com diferentes contextos económicos, espalhados pelas seis regiões da Organização Mundial da Saúde. Os dados foram recolhidos, harmonizados e integrados num modelo de atribuição de fontes otimizado em R, permitindo obter estimativas por agente e região. Os resultados indicaram que alimentos de origem animal, como carne, laticínios, ovos e pescado, foram frequentemente implicados em surtos, embora produtos vegetais também contribuíssem de forma relevante. Verificaram-se marcadas disparidades geográficas e, sobretudo, económicas: a maioria dos dados provinha de regiões de elevado rendimento, enquanto países de baixo e médio rendimento estiveram sub-representados, apesar de provavelmente contribuírem com uma maior carga de doença. Estes desequilíbrios expõem fragilidades dos sistemas de vigilância. Além disso, um número reduzido de agentes foi responsável pela maioria dos surtos, apontando para oportunidades de intervenções focalizadas e de elevado impacto. Este trabalho constitui uma aplicação global atualizada da atribuição de fontes baseada em surtos, oferecendo informações transparentes e acionáveis sobre a distribuição dos riscos alimentares. Os resultados sublinham a necessidade de reforçar a vigilância, sobretudo em regiões sub-representadas, e de integrar dados de surtos com outras abordagens complementares. Assim, os sistemas de segurança dos alimentos poderão desenvolver estratégias de prevenção mais equitativas e sustentadas em evidência, contribuindo para reduzir a carga global das doenças transmitidas por alimentos no âmbito de uma abordagem de “Uma Só Saúde”
Foodborne diseases remain a major global public health challenge, responsible for significant morbidity and mortality across all world regions. Accurate source attribution is essential to guide risk-based interventions and strengthen food safety policies. This study estimated the global and regional contribution of different food sources to foodborne illnesses using outbreak data reported between 2010 and 2019. Nearly 10,000 outbreaks linked to simple foods caused by 20 selected pathogens were analyzed from 46 countries across six World Health Organization regions, encompassing different income levels. Outbreak data were collected, cleaned, and harmonized, and a source attribution model was optimized in R to deliver source attribution estimates by hazard and region. Results revealed that animal-sourced foods, including meat, dairy, eggs, and seafood, were frequently implicated commodities worldwide, though produce also played a significant role in the transmission of diverse hazards. Strong geographic and economic disparities emerged: most data originated from high-income regions, while low- and middle-income countries were underrepresented despite bearing a likely higher disease burden. These imbalances highlight critical gaps in surveillance systems. Importantly, a relatively small set of food–pathogen combinations accounted for the majority of outbreaks, underscoring opportunities for targeted, high-impact interventions. This work represents an updated comprehensive global application of outbreak-based source attribution, providing transparent and actionable insights into the distribution of foodborne risks. The findings reinforce the importance of improving surveillance frameworks, particularly in underrepresented regions, and integrating outbreak data with complementary attribution approaches. By doing so, global food safety systems can progress toward more equitable, evidence-based prevention strategies, ultimately reducing the burden of foodborne illness within a One Health framework
Foodborne diseases remain a major global public health challenge, responsible for significant morbidity and mortality across all world regions. Accurate source attribution is essential to guide risk-based interventions and strengthen food safety policies. This study estimated the global and regional contribution of different food sources to foodborne illnesses using outbreak data reported between 2010 and 2019. Nearly 10,000 outbreaks linked to simple foods caused by 20 selected pathogens were analyzed from 46 countries across six World Health Organization regions, encompassing different income levels. Outbreak data were collected, cleaned, and harmonized, and a source attribution model was optimized in R to deliver source attribution estimates by hazard and region. Results revealed that animal-sourced foods, including meat, dairy, eggs, and seafood, were frequently implicated commodities worldwide, though produce also played a significant role in the transmission of diverse hazards. Strong geographic and economic disparities emerged: most data originated from high-income regions, while low- and middle-income countries were underrepresented despite bearing a likely higher disease burden. These imbalances highlight critical gaps in surveillance systems. Importantly, a relatively small set of food–pathogen combinations accounted for the majority of outbreaks, underscoring opportunities for targeted, high-impact interventions. This work represents an updated comprehensive global application of outbreak-based source attribution, providing transparent and actionable insights into the distribution of foodborne risks. The findings reinforce the importance of improving surveillance frameworks, particularly in underrepresented regions, and integrating outbreak data with complementary attribution approaches. By doing so, global food safety systems can progress toward more equitable, evidence-based prevention strategies, ultimately reducing the burden of foodborne illness within a One Health framework
Descrição
Dissertação de Mestrado Integrado em Medicina Veterinária, área científica de Produção Animal e Segurança Alimentar
Palavras-chave
Source attribution Outbreaks Foodborne pathogens Foodborne surveillance Food safety Atribuição de fontes Surtos Agentes patogénicos Sistemas de vigilância Segurança dos alimentos